According to documents leaked by The Mail, Britain must learn how to cope with Covid for years.
The virus will likely remain common in the community, with seasonal spikes like the flu in winter.
However, Covid will be able to receive vaccine booster jabs and enter what government health professionals are calling a “steady state”, with hospital admissions expected to not exceed the current levels of approximately 750 per day.
According to one document, the Autumn Strategy for the NHS Test and Trace Service states, “Given how widespread the virus transmission around the globe, we now need to think about how society might simultaneously suppress and cope with the virus and reach a endemic status for years to come,”
The virus is predicted to be widespread in the future, with “seasonal surges” occurring during the winter as flu-like symptoms.
These documents detail the four planning scenarios which have led to Boris Johnson’s third-wave response. These include a optimistic scenario (called ‘quick Farewell’), in which Covid case numbers would peak at 30,000 in July, while a more realistic scenario (called ‘long goodbye’), which predicted a high of 85,000 daily cases in the summer.
It is also called ‘leaving shortly’. This would mean that there was a high of 65,000 daily cases in July, and then’moderate levels’ until October. However, the scenario was wrong in every way.
In the third wave, Daily UK case numbers peaked July at 54.674, but then continued to rise for three more months before reaching 52.009 on October 21. In the days since, they have fallen steadily before climbing slightly in recent times.
In the third wave, Daily UK cases peaked July at 54.674, but then dropped to 52.009 in October. The numbers have been steadily declining since then, but they are now slightly higher.
It is also called ‘leaving shortly’. This would mean that there was a maximum of 65,000 daily cases in July, and then a decline to’modest levels’ by October. All of these scenarios are false
Last week, Johnson warned of’storm clouds over Europe’ and stated that cases may rise in the UK
Privately, government officials believe that meeting the World Health Organisation goal of 70% vaccinations is not likely to be achieved. Nearly 80 countries are expected to fail to meet a second target, which is 40% for their 40 percent vaccination rate by 2015.
The Government documents are ominous and warn of a possible ‘extreme event’. These could be a spread of an anti-vaccine new strain or supply issues with booster jabs.
One document states that ‘In all of our scenarios, there is the possibility for an unplanned event or combination events occurring to derail planning and leave us with a worst-case scenario with no end in view.’
There are new “variants of concern” that have arrived in recent years, including the Delta strain. It quickly spread the country and is a continuing’very real danger’.
Last week, Johnson warned of’storm clouds over Europe’ and stated that cases may rise in the UK.
Two separate scenarios, reported yesterday in the i newspaper, show that the Government doesn’t anticipate the pandemic being declared over until at least another year.
Officials from the government also believe it is unlikely that the World Health Organisation’s target of 70% vaccinations will be achieved.
Nearly 80 countries in Africa are likely to fail to meet a different target, which is to have 40% of their citizens vaccinated by 2015.