There’s no more important month in the restaurant calendar than December. Many hospitality businesses make 25% of their annual revenues during December’s 31-day span.
After nearly two years’ worth of confusion and lockdowns in the past, this year’s pre-Christmas rush promises to offer us an opportunity for our businesses to be back on the right track.
But all that went out of the window after the announcement of the Government’s so-called Plan B last week, with the return of mask-wearing, the introduction of Covid passports at some venues and advice to the public to work from home where possible.
Warnings of a ‘tsunami’ of Omicron infections in the days since didn’t help either.
The impact on hospitality was both immediate and devastating. Six days later, 654 customers had cancelled their reservations at my restaurant.
This is not an isolated incident. It’s the same story up and down the country. Chefs I know report losing up to half of their business in the week.
Tom Kerridge (pictured): There’s no more important month in the restaurant calendar than December. Many hospitality businesses make 25% of their annual revenues during December’s 31-day period.
While I am aware that public health is paramount, what can the government do to help those who have suffered this terrible loss of faith?
We don’t have a safety net, and there isn’t any compensation for revenue losses. Without any assistance, many bars, cafés, restaurants and cafes will collapse. And before some gammon-faced idiot says, ‘You can afford it, Fat Lad’, I should make clear that, yes, I probably can.
But this isn’t about me or my restaurants. It’s about our industry and about the hopes, dreams and livelihoods of millions of people who work in it.
Even if there are no tables available, businesses must continue to pay staff. However, the government has ended the job-supporting furlough program and does not propose any way to reimburse people for business losses. If they have a plan to prop up the industry, they need to tell us; and if they haven’t, they need to create one as soon as possible.
Personally, I’d have no hesitation about dining out right now. A pub or well-run restaurant is the most secure public space.
It is understandable that people would be anxious about cancelling out on events they’ve been looking forward to for several months.
In just six days 654 potential customers cancelled bookings at one of my restaurants
Nobody wants to catch coronavirus, least of all at Christmas, the time of year when we’re most likely to get together with our extended families, including the most elderly and vulnerable.
All of that I fully appreciate, and I know it’s nobody’s fault. Without support to our industry, it will not be possible to estimate the collateral harm to millions.
UK Hospitality’s 2018 report shows that the hospitality industry employs over 3.2 Million workers. That’s 3.2 million families whose income directly relies, in whole or part, on those jobs.
It’s one of the biggest sectors of the economy — even bigger than education or manufacturing. That makes it a powerhouse for the country, generating £130 billion every year, of which £39 billion goes straight to the Treasury in taxation.
In every possible sense — economic, moral, practical — I believe it is crucial that the Government provides support to the hospitality trade. The repercussions of its collapse will be severe.
I’ve been campaigning for years to win more support for Britain’s struggling pubs. Without the love of snugs and pints by the fireside, it is difficult to see a Britain.
But that’s just the start of the looming disaster, if the whole industry is allowed to founder. All types of establishments are at risk. Numerous thousands of businesses are at risk.
And if they go, the impact on Britain’s agricultural suppliers — the producers and distributors of fruit and veg, fresh fish, meat and dairy — will be devastating, too. It is impossible to underestimate the economic damage that the pandemic has already caused. Don’t assume that the furlough scheme covered every cost. It really didn’t. My restaurants have taken a battering — and I’m one of the lucky ones, because we were in a robust position to start with.
Many of my clients have reached out to me to show their support. It’s a great gesture. I’m also grateful to those 654 people who had the decency to let us know that they were changing their plans. That’s much better than simply failing to turn up.
Back in the summer of 2020, I spoke out when 27 people failed to honour bookings at one of my restaurants, Kerridge’s Bar & Grill in London’s Corinthia Hotel. They didn’t have the courtesy to warn us: they just bailed out. It was completely disgraceful. I have no hesitation in stating that. This time it’s not individual thoughtlessness that threatens us. It’s the kneejerk reaction of politicians who act without thinking through the consequences of their actions.
Ever since the emergence of Covid, we’ve been told that ministers are ‘following the science’. Where is the scientific foundation for Plan B?
Masks are required to be worn by shoppers entering supermarkets or other stores. On the other hand, people who drink in pubs are allowed to do whatever they like, including singing or shouting at the television.
People are encouraged to work from home to safeguard their health — but free to attend their crowded Christmas office parties.
Tom Kerridge is chef-patron of six restaurants, including the two Michelin-starred The Hand & Flowers (pictured) in Marlow, Buckinghamshire
I’m not a doctor. I can’t tell you which of these rules makes sense or whether they are all nonsense. But I do know it’s confusing. Is it possible to feel secure about these inconsistent regulations? People don’t know whether they’re coming or going, while the language used by the PM and his advisers becomes more apocalyptic.
This has led to millions of people being cautious. They are unable to rely on clear government advice and have created their own rules. This means that there will undoubtedly be many cancellations at restaurants.
The mixed messages that the government used to encourage people to stay home for food and drinks, but allow pubs and restaurants to remain open before the 2020 lockdown was implemented in 2020 were the same. And we saw it again during the months of ludicrous ‘tier two’ and ‘tier three’ regulations, when a 10pm curfew obliged businesses to turn their customers out onto the streets.
One might believe that after two years of experience, our public health officials and politicians would be able to anticipate and prevent such chaos. Instead, improbable, in-the-moment decisions seem to be the norm. And it’s not just the hospitality sector. Businesses of all kinds are suffering from this sudden shift to homework.
I’m willing to bet that every one of these small businesses was hoping and praying for a good Christmas, just to help them out after a dire year.
They have seen progress, but they are still in the same situation as the hospitality industry.
Creative people are a part of my field. Our work is a joy and we are able to make an enormous contribution to our country. But right now we’re staring into the void. A lot of businesses are unlikely to reopen in 2022 if they don’t get immediate financial help.
Tom Kerridge is chef-patron of six restaurants, including the two Michelin-starred The Hand & Flowers in Marlow, Buckinghamshire.