For now, however, common sense seems to have prevailed. Boris Johnson, the Cabinet and other concerned citizens have remained calm despite severe predictions and frightening statistics.
There will not be any new restrictions on Covids before the New Years.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid has sensibly urged people not to throw caution to the wind when enjoying parties on December 31 – but in England at least, parties are permitted.
This is vital. A second clampdown would have disastrous consequences for society, economy, and general mental health.
The reasoning behind it would have also been flawed because of a basic misinterpretation of statistics. If we look at the most likely outcomes for this wave, it might seem bleak.
Professor Neil Ferguson, Imperial College London warned that there would be 10,000 admissions to hospitals every day. The reality is far from that – in fact, yesterday’s NHS figures show there were fewer than 10,000 Covid patients in hospital in the whole of England. It was actually 8,474.
Never base your policy decisions solely on the worst-case scenario.
Statistics models show that even the most optimistic forecasts can be a poor predictor for reality. The spread of possibilities means that we are 97 percent confident that any outcome will prove to be more positive than our worst predictions. This isn’t wishful thinking. It’s mathematics.
Some gloom-mongers, including a number who sit on the Government’s Sage committee, believe it’s always safer to plan for the very worst.
This strategy will only be effective if it is relatively painless. Covid restrictions have led to the economic and social collapse of society.
The gross domestic product of the United States has not returned to its pre-Covid days, two years ago. A strong economic recovery is needed to ensure that more people die from the financial effects of restrictions on their freedom than were those who died under Covid. Judgment Value, which I am developing as a risk assessment system at University of Bristol, shows that the economy needs to continue improving if our children and we are to live longer, healthier lives.
The cost of locking down earlier is rising. There is a growing backlog in NHS treatment for life-threatening illnesses, and there are increased levels of domestic abuse as well as disruptions to education. We can’t afford to make these issues worse.
It is all too easy to focus on those bleak ‘worst case scenarios’ and ignore more upbeat news. The UK Health Security Agency reported that Omicron was causing England to have between 50% and 70% fewer hospitalisations than Delta.
There was further good news in the weekend’s results released yesterday, with hospitalisations showing little increase. London’s Christmas Day admissions were 364, down from 390 two days prior.
People might be concerned that 1.5 million English people have an active infection. This was just prior to Christmas.
This was to be expected. Thanks to the number-crunching power of Bristol’s Predictor Corrector Coronavirus Filter (PCCF), that’s close to the figure I predicted in the Daily Mail.
According to the PCCF the total number of active infection may exceed 3 million during the peak of the wave. We may also see the number of people admitted to hospitals in England reach 3,000 per day.
But that’s well below the 4,130 we saw at the peak in January – and daily deaths should stay well below what we saw in January too.
Philip Thomas has been appointed Visiting Academic Professor of the University of Bristol.