MailOnline has revealed that covid cases in London are falling in nearly two-thirds the neighbourhoods. This is despite optimism that Omicron waves may be slowing down.
In the Capital, 622 out of 983 areas saw coronavirus infections rates fall last week. It is an indication that it may have already ended.
Experts fear the U-turn may be because fewer tests were carried out over the festive period, with up to 4million Londoners — nearly half the city’s population — thought to have headed ‘home’ to celebrate Christmas and the New Year.
Scientists warn that cases may soon rise again, as official data does not go up past December 29th. This masks the effect of New Year’s Eve mingling.
But infectious diseases experts are still confident that the capital’s outbreak is still slowing and may have already peaked, mirroring the same trend seen in South Africa — the first country in the world to fall victim to the variant, where infections now appear to be in freefall.
They point to separate data from the ZOE app — which relies on daily reports from a million people to monitor the virus instead of official figures — which shows cases fell almost a third over the Christmas period from 600 to 436 per 100,000 people a day.
According to the Department of Health, the Capital’s cases still haven’t broken the December 22nd record of 27,800. They fell 10% to 20,080 yesterday compared with the week before.
‘Professor Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson — an influential No10 adviser whose grim death projections spooked ministers into adopting draconian restrictions back in spring 2020 — revealed today that he was ‘cautiously optimistic’ that London’s cases were plateauing, and could fall nationally within as little as a week.
However, covid hospitalisations are on the rise in capital. The number of patients infected with HIV/AIDS on the wards has increased by 46% in the last week, to 3,800.
However, a top NHS leader said that there are early indications this could be happening. Chris Hopson who is in charge of the NHS Providers said admissions have been rising at a rate of one to two percent per day, up from as high as 15% last week.
It is being shown that the variant is less severe than previous versions. Since Omicron’s inception, the number of Covid patients who are on ventilators within the capital has fallen by half.
According to top advisers, any additional restrictions would only slow down the peak of Covid hospitalisations and Covid cases until March. This is when boosters might have worn off for vulnerable individuals.


Above are Covid cases in the Capital by MSOA. These small neighborhoods have approximately 8,000 residents. The infection rate is higher in areas with darker colors. This is due to the high growth rate of infections in areas that are darker than the rest.


Above is a list of Covid cases in capital city by MSOA. The infection rate in most of the areas was above 1,600 for every 100,000.

The following chart shows the percentage drop in Covid cases among 20 London MSOAs. This is a decrease of nearly 1,000. These areas had cases that dropped by 25% or more in 25 percent of them.

Above are Covid cases in the Capital since March 2020 when the pandemic began. According to official data, there was an increase in infections during the Christmas period. However, it is possible that these cases are now rising again.

Above is a picture of the Covid patients in London’s hospitals. According to one senior NHS leader, these numbers could be already at a peak

Daily Department of Health figures break London down into nearly 1,000 neighbourhoods, or Middle Layer Super Output Areas. The neighbourhood is where about 8,000 people live.
A week-on-week decline in positive test results in two-thirds of respondents was observed in this group. The seven-day period ended on December 29, and the last one ended on December 29. 33% saw a decrease of 25% or more.
Lower Clapton was in Hackney and saw the greatest drop with an infection rate of 57%. Southfields North followed, and Tooting Bec Common was next. Wandsworth saw a decrease of 56%.
Wandsworth had second-highest infection rates in England during the festive week. This was just behind neighbouring Lambeth.
Ruth Hutt from Lambeth’s director of public-health said that even the cases there appear to have reached their peak in the week prior Christmas.
According to her, cases are now declining in this borough and the trend has been followed by the rest of London.
Bilton Road in Ealing, on the opposite end of the spectrum, was the only area to experience its infections increase by more than twofold last week. In Osterley, Hounslow they increased by 87pc and Hillingdon Heath by 85pc.
The number of covid cases reported in capital seems to have fallen by the date. Taking tests by specimen date — when the swab was done — shows the average for cases is creeping up slightly to 22,700 a day although this only goes up to December 26.
Despite the glimmer of hope, experts point out that the figures have been affected by testing, with the number of PCR swabs carried out down 24 per cent on Boxing Day, the latest date available, to 621,000 compared to the week before.
The positivity rate — the proportion of swabs that picked up the virus — did not fall over this period, suggesting that the outbreak may still be growing.
The number of cases is falling in the under-60 age group, but they are starting to rise among older people who are more susceptible to the virus. However, data shows that 90% of cases have increased.
Figures from the ZOE app — which are not affected by testing because they rely on daily reports from a million Britons on whether they are feeling unwell — also show a downturn in cases.
SAGE member Professor Ferguson is an epidemiologist. He stated that while he believes that London’s Omicron infection rate may have stabilized in the key age bracket of 18-50, that has driven the Omicron outbreak, it is too soon to know if they will fall.
I would agree that an epidemic, which is rapidly spreading and reaching so many people at once, cannot sustain these numbers for ever.
“So, we’d expect to see the case numbers begin to fall in the following week. It may already be happening in London but other regions will experience a drop in the next two to three weeks.
‘Whether they then drop precipitously or we see a pattern a bit like we saw with Delta back in July – of an initial drop and then quite a high plateau – remains to be seen, it’s just too difficult to interpret current mixing trends and what the effect of open schools again will be.’
MailOnline spoke with Professor Paul Hunter from the University of East Anglia. Hunter is an expert in infectious diseases and said that London’s Covid case count was likely to be falling.
“I believe it’s possible we could see some rising in the number of people who have deferred testing until after the holidays period.
Although he didn’t rule out a possibility for an increase in infections over the next few days, this could be caused by the return of millions to the capital during the New Year’s Eve festivities and holidays.
Prof. Tim Spector who is the head of the ZOE App also stated that Covid cases appear to have reached their peak in capital.
He stated that Covid death rates in London have been declining and are slowing down in the UK.



Because many are away at their desks, work from home guidance will keep the city’s centre quiet over the next week.
The January guidance renewal is being debated by ministers. This would keep city centers quiet or require further actions.
As he prepares for a press conference at 5 p.m. to update country about Covid, Boris Johnson faces increasing calls to reduce self-isolation down to just five days.
The Prime Minister — who met with ministers this morning to take stock on the current crisis after declaring that the No10 will stick to existing restrictions — will be joined by England’s chief medical officer Sir Chris Whitty and chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance.
Conservative backbenchers as well as business leaders are becoming increasingly angry that the new strain is causing a havoc in our country. It is milder than previous strains, and has few to no symptoms.
MailOnline was informed by Craig Mackinlay, Tory MP and UKIP member of Parliament. He said that the country is currently in a semi-lockdown with 1 million Britons being isolated after they caught Covid. Mackinlay also called on the PM to reduce the quarantine to just five days as the US or France. It could help England escape its self-isolation and misery, he said.