Jim McMahon, Labour Transport spokesperson was incandescent. “We won’t accept any crumbs from the table,” he declared as he ranted at Boris about his latest perfidious betrayal. ‘We were promised that we would be levelled up, but what we have been given today is the great train robbery – robbing the North of its chance to realise its full potential.’
McMahon’s attacks were actually quite understated. He certainly failed to match the levels of anguish reached by Yorkshire Post editor James Mitchinson, who took to social media to proclaim: ‘When coal miners of the North – like my dad & his dad – had their livelihoods torn from them, their families suffered. My family. My family. Their actions today are worse.
The response to the publication of the Government’s Integrated Rail Plan – which saw Labour and its allies trying to paint £54 billion of new infrastructure investment as the greatest crime against the North since the Peterloo Massacre – was hysterical and hyperbolic. However, it was instructive.
This moment was described as historic by Sir Keir Sterner in February when he appointed Rachel Reeves Shadow Chancellor. Reeves was an economist who worked at HBOS and the Bank of England. She would force her party into fiscal responsibility. She stated in her first speech as a major speaker in this role, “Earning trust from people that will be responsible custodiansof public money”
DAN HODGES They think £54 billion of it represents nothing more than ‘crumbs’
Now we know the true nature of Labour’s attitude toward public money. They think £54 billion of it represents nothing more than ‘crumbs’.
Starmer may be about to fall in the same political trap that swallowed Ed Miliband, we know this.
Red Ed’s political legacy was shaped by the bank crisis and its deficit. Labour could not give up on its dependence to public spending. So Miliband’s strategy was simple – ignore it as an issue and hope it went away. Miliband would occasionally criticize George Osborne and David Cameron for failing to control the nation’s finances. Then he would commit Labour to more borrowing, higher expenditures and greater debt.
Starmer plans to follow the same approach with Covid. Starmer will try to convince voters to forget about the financial impact of the pandemic. Furloughs in the hundreds of billions. Additional tens to billions for an emergency expansion of NHS. The vaccination and booster rollout.
Labour will attempt to close its – and the public’s – eyes to post-pandemic economic realities, demand the Government carries on spending as if a financial tsunami had never struck, and cry ‘Betrayal!!!’ Every fiscal adjustment.
The Tories spent the money on Test and Trace, their ‘rich friends’, while they played their trump cards. However, there is a problem to this strategy. Shadow ministers are not causing havoc in the public records, demanding “Where is the Test and Trace audit trail?” Or ‘Where are PPP procurement guidelines? Labour, however, stated that Labour had a line: “Forget about the red tape. Get our nurses their masks!”
It is unclear if the money was actually recklessly wasted or used to defend British citizens against a fatal virus. This money is now gone. The money is gone. Labour doesn’t have the ability to get it back. And the argument ‘They wasted £30 billion on Test and Trace, so we’re going to splash another £30 billion on HS2’ simply underlines the party’s fiscal incoherence.
DAN HODGES – Starmer thought that the announcement last week gave him an opportunity for a populist wedge to be driven between Boris and Red Wall Britain. He was wrong.
There’s another problem with Labour’s strategy. It relies on treating people – in particular the people of northern England – as if they’re fools. Starmer thought that Starmer’s last week announcement would give him an opportunity for a populist wedge to be driven between Boris and Red Wall Britain. Starmer was wrong.
He unwittingly changed the reality and expectation regarding the government’s levelling up agenda. Ministers are becoming increasingly annoyed at Boris’s ability to promise the stars and then deliver the moon. It is no secret. “He promises things that cannot be kept, so we make it possible for half the deliveries, then it seems like a failure,” one complained.
Starmer has now overplayed his hand. Starmer is telling everybody that we have betrayed North. However, spades will soon be digging in the ground for these projects. This is according to a Government official. That’s investment in real projects, jobs, and infrastructure. It will be noticed by the voters.
Starmer believes they won’t. He thinks a storm of negative headlines would obscure the real truth about what just happened. One Minister stated, “Take the entire Leeds-Manchester high speed line. It would have cost £40 billion, been completed in 2043, and shaved four minutes off the 30-minute journey time of the upgrade we’ve just announced. The scheme we’ve unveiled costs £23 billion and will start delivering benefits in the 2030s. So they want to spend another £17 billion just for a rushed cup of coffee.’
Labour’s entire strategy is to infantilize Northern voters and hope they won’t recognize this fiscal compromise. This strategy is also flawed because it relies on another flawed principle. That is, the perception that these voters have of people living in equal lives with those who receive HS2.
DAN HODGES – Boris isn’t taking the North to mugs. Sir Keir Sternmer is
But it doesn’t. Red Wall MP, one of whom told me that’shiny transport megaprojects aren’t the major issue in my constituency. My area is concerned with immigration issues and how to stock shelves.
Red Waller #2: “Boris Shapps and Grant Shapps managed this problem well. He had No 10’s backbenchers. Grant then took the backbenchers into No 10. There were still some people unhappy. The general consensus is that this is something we sell at the door.
Starmer used a different method. Starmer is betting that his crying ‘It’s too little!’ will be enough to convince voters. Red Wall voters are likely to return to Red Wall if they shout loud enough.
It’s exactly the same wager Ed Miliband took. This is the exact same wager Jeremy Corbyn took. This is the exact same wager Neil Kinnock took. It’s also the gamble Michael Foot took.
Plus, the cry “It’s just not enough” will become louder as we get closer to the Election. NHS. Schools. Police. Benefits. Tuition fees. Public-sector pay. What is Labour’s commitment to fiscal transparency?
Which issue will finally make Labour’s Shadow and Leader of Labour feel the need to tell their party: “OK, this really is enough”?
All evidence suggests that this day is unlikely to come. We now know Labour frontbenchers view £54 billion as petty cash. Starmer already approved funding HS2 in its entirety and Northern Powerhouse. This is akin to signing a blank check, considering the uncertainty about inflation and rates. Starmer can’t control his spending habits over railway lines, so what hope does he have for his other sacred cows.
Labour leader believes that Red Wall Britain will not notice. His party and his continued addiction to uncosted, endless spending will be ignored by the voters.
They won’t. Boris doesn’t take the North as a mug. Sir Keir Sternmer is.