The 18 Red Wallers packed into the office of Rutland and Melton MP Alicia Kearns decided they all needed to dip their knives in the blood.
‘We had to see where everyone stood,’ one told me, ‘so we gave everyone a bit of paper and asked them to write anonymously what they were going to do. We had to say whether we’d already sent a letter in asking for a no-confidence vote in Boris, whether we were planning to send a letter in, or whether we were going to stick with him.’
The notes were then placed in a pile, and mixed up. When they were opened, ten revealed letters had already been sent. Eight others pledged to send their own letter within the next 24 hours. None said they would stay their hand.
By Wednesday night some of Boris’s more excitable supporters were briefing that the rebels were in full retreat, and the coup against him had collapsed. They aren’t. It’s now only a matter of when, not if, the plotters strike
Ironically, it was another betrayal that gave Boris a moment of respite. When Christian Wakeford announced he was crossing the floor to the Labour Party, just minutes before PMQs, it had a galvanising effect on Tory backbenchers. As Wakeford entered the chamber he was met with audible hisses from his old colleagues, who then greeted the arrival of the Prime Minister with loud cheers.
Some former friends of the Bury Brutus expressed shock at his defection. ‘I was out with him on Tuesday night,’ one MP told me, ‘and he was just like normal. I didn’t have a clue.’ But another who was with him at the start of the week said: ‘I asked him, “So what are you doing with these letters to [chairman of the Tory Party’s 1922 Committee] Graham Brady?”, and he said, “Oh, you’ll see.” ’
By Wednesday night some of Boris’s more excitable supporters were briefing that the rebels were in full retreat, and the coup against him had collapsed. They aren’t. It’s now only a matter of when, not if, the plotters strike.
One of the problems for the Prime Minister is his enemies now span every faction of the Tory Party. Last week it was the Red Wallers. Next week the Tory grandees will start to make their own move.
‘We’re heading for a confidence vote,’ one former Cabinet Minister told me.
‘Wakeford delayed it by a day or two. But Boris’s best friends are acting like his biggest enemies now. Jacob [Rees-Mogg] is annoying everyone with his rudeness and Nadine [Dorries] is doing the same with half-cock announcements.’
The Red Wallers gathered at Rutland & Melton MP Alicia Kearns and decided to get their knifes in the blood. ‘We had to see where everyone stood,’ one told me, ‘so we gave everyone a bit of paper and asked them to write anonymously what they were going to do’
And then there’s the Spartans. The Brexit defenders have been keeping their powder dry up until now. But they are still furious at Boris’s disastrous – and abortive – attempt to save Owen Paterson. On Thursday, Steve Baker finally broke cover and warned: ‘It looks like checkmate for the Prime Minister.’
As one fellow Spartan told me: ‘Boris has a way to still get out of this. He could empty the Augean stables. However, that would require Carrie to get rid of everyone she has been surrounded with. And I just don’t think he’s prepared to do that.’ And of course, there is the Cabinet. Senior Ministers have been keeping their heads down and trotting out the mantra: ‘Wait for the Sue Gray report.’
The organising behind-the scenes is underway. Although Liz Truss is currently out of country, MPs claim her allies are contacting them to schedule meetings for when she comes back.
Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak – who brazenly dodged Boris’s torrid PMQs session a fortnight ago – made a point of standing and chatting cheerily with his leader as they waited to enter last week’s session.
But any hopes within No 10 that this provided evidence of the Chancellor’s loyalty were misplaced. Tricky Rishi began meeting with rebel leaders within hours, and they set forth their conditions for supporting him in any leadership race.
A PM in crisis would not be possible with the force of the forces against Boris. He has another Tory senior working against him. Himself.
The Sue Gray report was expected to exonerate No 10. Then it became clear that she wanted to delay its publication so she could interview ex-staffers who claimed they had evidence telling Martin Reynolds and the Prime Minister about the downing Street party.
Boris was able to prove this crucially, as he has now decided to put aside his defense that he mistook the No. 10 lawn for a workplace event when he entered it. ‘That’s where he’s made his fatal mistake,’ one Downing Street insider told me. ‘He’s put Sue Gray in an impossible position.
‘For him to be cleared she now has to say she believes a party was organised by Boris’s staff, it was organised in his own garden, it was organised at a time when the rest of the country was being told to isolate, it was organised despite senior officials warning against it, but no one in No 10 bothered to check with the Prime Minister if the event was OK. It’s completely insane. It’s just not credible.’
Christian Wakeford’s announcement that he would cross the Labour Party floor, just minutes prior to PMQs, had an immediate impact on Tory backbenchers
It isn’t. It isn’t. And it was obvious that Boris began to realize this last week. He met Tory MPs as a desperate bid to improve his standing. The events over the past months eventually caught up to Boris. ‘He cried,’ one rebel told me. ‘He kept saying sorry. He knows he’s finished.’
He isn’t quite finished yet. Boris told one colleague last week that when the leadership challenge is triggered ‘I will fight on’. Some of Boris’ MPs are willing to fight alongside him for now. Reluctantly.
‘I think he should go,’ one MP told me, ‘but my constituency association doesn’t. They’re not there yet. So I’m waiting till the local elections. They still consider Boris a winner at the moment. He must lose. Then they’ll realise it’s time to move on.’
Here is the key point. While Westminster watchers, MPs and Westminster watchers are anxiously waiting for Sue Gray’s verdict, No 10, may not be so. The British aren’t.
Last week, Boris’s defenders were furiously denouncing Christian Wakeford and other 2019 MPs for their disloyalty. ‘It’s naked careerism,’ one told me. ‘They’re just trying to save their own skin.’
Correct. These are. This is all that you have to know about Partygate beyond the Red Wall. It also includes Labour voters, who crossed the Rubicon from the Conservatives just two years ago.
They’re crossing back. Their numbers are staggering.
The poll this newspaper published at the start of the year showing the Tories on course to lose 100 seats didn’t lie. This was before all the new revelations.
Labour’s national poll lead is now in double digits. Boris’s personal approval ratings have slumped below the subterranean levels plumbed by Jeremy Corbyn on the eve of the last election.
This is why Tory MPs are pursuing their latest bout of genital strangulation. Fear. Fear.
Christian Wakeford might be an ungrateful, duplicitous back-stabber. But he’s an ungrateful, duplicitous, back-stabber who has come to the conclusion his chances of remaining in Parliament are better served by putting a photo of Captain Hindsight, not Boris, on his election literature.
That would have seemed impossible six months back. But this morning Tory MPs aren’t just thinking the unthinkable, they’re preparing to act on it.
‘We’re just waiting for Gray now,’ one rebel told me. Another said: ‘The storm clouds are black, they’re darkening, and they’re heading towards No 10.’
They are now free from their daggers. They are still waiting. Boris Johnson believes that the Ides of Jan are here, but they have not yet arrived.