The ministers have been able to present evidence supporting the reduction of self-isolation from five days to one since last summer. This is according to critics who demanded that Boris Johnson abandons the paralysing rules.
With up to 1.3 million Britons under house arrest and the current workforce crisis, rail services have been halted. Bin collections are also affected. NHS bosses asked heart attack patients to find their way to hospital.
The Adam Smith Institute is a Neoliberal Thinktank that published data in August 2013 indicating it was possible to reduce the quarantine time by half. It stood at 10 days at the time.
Oxford University researchers found that 98% of transmission takes place within five days after symptoms appear. Experts on the subject suggested that the isolation period could be shorter.
Today, virologists stated that they were in agreement with these findings. The vast majority of the spread occurs within the first few days after someone feels ill.
James Lawson from the ASI told MailOnline that he was a Fellow and said: “The research proves we can safely decrease the isolation period.
“Governments declare they will follow science. But, they ignore changes in conditions and many of the data that we have since last year.”
He stated that “The isolation period has having detrimental unintended consequences” and added, “The NHS is under more pressure due to staff shortages.” Additionally, it makes it more difficult to maintain schools, deliver, and other aspects of society that are detrimental.
Lawson said that it was now time for No10’s to “start trusting Britons” to make sensible precautions, and to “forge a way back to normality rather than adopting forever restrictions.”
A leader of the NHS yesterday demanded that the time period be reduced to five days if it is possible. This was in response to staff returning to work and he called the cut a ‘good idea’.
There have been 24 critical incidents reported by 137 NHS trusts throughout England. The trusts that have publicly declared incidents within the country are shown above, but they are not all listed.
In an attempt to reduce the chaos caused by the self-isolation of thousands of workers, the rules for covid testing could be relaxed. Pictured: Monday, 08.15, a deserted Waterloo Station
There were concerns that the virus could lead to staff shortages as more people succumb to it. Train cancellations, delayed bin collection and cancelled trains all led to fears of staff absenteeism. Many hospitals in Greater Manchester also announced they will suspend any non-urgent surgery. Pictured: Overflowing bins in the Walton area of Liverpool on Tuesday
The self-isolation period was reduced to seven days by ministers last month. However, anyone who tests negative with a lateral flow during days six or seven of the quarantine period is allowed to remain in isolation. The Prime Minister must follow suit with the US which reduced quarantine from five to five days for those without symptoms.
Business leaders spoke out yesterday to warn that others were suffering, and the supermarket Iceland managing director stated that the absence graph of their business was “almost vertical” and greater than the previous peak.
Sky News spoke to Richard Walker, the managing director of this chain. He said that the business was under severe strain. This latest variant is much more contagious, and it’s having a significant impact.
‘My request to the government would be to first prioritise food retail frontline workers with lateral flow tests, and to also revisit isolation rules.
“Seven Days is not a good time to be triple-jabbed, even though the symptoms in most cases are mild or common.
MPs and experts joined the increasing chorus of people calling for changes in the rules. France and Greece, among others have reduced the time limit to only five days.
MailOnline spoke to Craig Mackinlay, Tory MP for the Tory party. He said that while the government was faced with a difficult choice, the country was in the middle of a semi-lockdown. This is because a million Britons are currently being isolated after Covid caught.
He suggested that reducing England’s quarantine from 7 to 5 Days could solve the self-isolation misfortune.
“We almost face a partial lockdown as people are absent from work, even though they’re perfectly fine,” he said. It was hard to believe,’ he stated. “That must have been a very hard problem for the US… They have five days to find the solution. It might be.
Dr. Tim Spector is an Epidemiologist who manages the Covid-tracking Study ZOE. He said that the UK should do the same to “protect the economy”.
And Matthew Taylor, head of the NHS Confederation — an organisation which represents trusts — said two more days should be shaved off the period as long as it was backed up by the science.
BBC Radio 4 he said: “As long it’s based on science. We must, on one hand, try to return staff to work as quickly as possible.
‘Hospitals who have declared critical incidents, for example, are essentially reaching out to staff who are on leave, on rest days or even recently retired and asking them to come back to wards, so the situation is desperate — any way of getting staff back into hospital is a good thing.
‘But on the other hand, if staff come back into hospital and are infectious, that’s completely counterproductive because that is going to mean more sickness in the hospital and for staff, so this can’t be led by politics or blind hope — it has to be led by the science.
“If science shows that it’s possible to return to work sooner, then the NHS leadership will desire this to happen.”
He suggested to people who are in quarantine that they could take a self-test on days 3, 4, and 5, and that they would be released from isolation on day 5 if the results were negative.
Researchers from the University of St Andrews raised alarm about quarantine length in November 2020. They discovered that most Covid transmission occurs within the first days of illness.
The paper, published in the peer-reviewed journal The Lancet Microbe, was a review of 79 studies investigating how long someone is infectious for.
The team’s assertion that most people do no spread the virus after five days was based on research out of China and Taiwan — but only included several hundred patients.
Oxford University researchers found that only two percent of cases of transmission occur within five days following the appearance warning signs.
The institute’s Pathogen Dynamics Group — which was involved in developing the NHS Test and Trace app — also found 40 per cent of transmission occurs before symptoms emerge, and 35 per cent within the first and second days of falling ill.
On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS), estimated that a record number of people in England had been infected during the week up to December 31, an increase of more than 60% from the previous week.
As a comparison, less than 2% of cases were reported in the first five to ten days following symptoms onset.
Sources at Oxford University claim that the paper was given to the Government prior to its publication. This paper is still to be published in peer-reviewed journals. The number of Covid cases on which the findings of this team were based is not known.
Both teams have yet to make a comment about whether or not isolation should be reduced in light of current circumstances.
However, scientists at the UK Health Security Agency claim that any reduction in vaccinations would prove to be “counterproductive” and could lead to more people being exposed.
This body replaced Public Health England and recommended that the changes be made because modeling showed they did not increase risk of the virus spreading.
MailOnline spoke with Professor Julian Tang of Leicester University who is a virusologist. The majority of transmission takes place just before or just after symptoms onset.
“Losing the virus load can occur as soon as the symptoms begin. This happens between five and seven days later.
He proposed that NHS employees could return to work seven days after they develop symptoms. This would be regardless of whether or not they have tested positive.
“If the healthcare worker is going to wear masks all day at work, [the risk of transmission]”May not be important,” Professor Tang said.
It may not make a difference if they go back to school as a teacher to continue teaching in a class with mostly unvaccinated children.
MailOnline spoke with Professor Paul Hunter from the University of East Anglia. He is an expert in infectious diseases and said that most Covid infections can be transmitted within two to three days of symptom onset.
He said, “That doesn’t mean that infection is impossible after that,” but it was very possible.
“Some risks remain for longer than 5 days. However, it’s so low that continued isolation after five days is unlikely, regardless of whether LFD positive or not, except when in contact with especially vulnerable people,” Professor Hunter said.
MailOnline was informed by Dr Alex Crozier from University College London that lateral flow tests should be avoided for isolation policies. They can take ‘often longer than 10 working days and could lead to over-isolation and worsening staffing problems.
‘A lot of vaccinated people will continue to test positive beyond day five to seven via LFT, even once their symptoms have resolved and the risk of onwards transmission is really quite low,’ he said.
Dr Crozier explained that most of the population has double-jabbed. Many of us have four or five doses now of immunity.
He stated that antigen testing results must be interpreted differently in people who have been given three doses of medication.
Dr Crozier stated that if a person tests negative after a couple of days, it doesn’t mean they have a virus. However, if they test positive for the fifth day or more, they may still be infectious.
“There are tradeoffs to be made and it’s all about managing different risk.
“If symptoms are not resolving within 24 hours, or 48 hours, and people have been given the booster vaccine, then we may be able release them sooner than 10 days, regardless of LFT status.
“If the patient still has symptoms after five days, then it is different. Critical roles can be moved to an easier isolation policy that is more flexible and based on context rather than just LFT status.
MailOnline spoke with Julian Jessop as an economics fellow from the Institute of Economic Affairs. He said that the argument for loosening the regulations for compulsory isolation periods is “further strengthening by the day”.
According to him, “Scientists now believe that Omicron’s variant is more mild and that transmission risks drop sharply in a matter of days.” These factors reduce the value of long isolation periods.
“On the flip side, the increase in Covid positives is increasing isolation costs, as more people have to remain at home.
Jessop said that a 10 percent or greater staff shortage would not cause a significant reduction in output. Even just a 2 per cent reduction in activity would cost the economy about £4 billion every month.
“It may be worthwhile taking a significant but temporary hit on GDP to protect the health of the population. This could also be beneficial for the long-term economy. However, long isolation periods seem to be doing more harm than good – including to the NHS itself.
“It’s becoming increasingly obvious that the greatest threat to the NHS is not a rise in Covid-infected patients, but a lack of staff.
The UK government must follow South Africa’s lead and ease isolation restrictions. The obvious next step would be to reduce the maximum period of stay from seven days to five days.
Calling for self-isolation periods to be reduced, Matthew Taylor, the head of the NHS Confederation which represents trusts, said two more days could be shaved off.
Today, BBC Radio 4: He said yesterday that while we need to do everything possible to bring staff back to work quickly, it was important on the other hand.
‘Hospitals who have declared critical incidents, for example, are essentially reaching out to staff who are on leave, on rest days or even recently retired and asking them to come back to wards, so the situation is desperate — any way of getting staff back into hospital is a good thing.
‘But on the other hand, if staff come back into hospital and are infectious, that’s completely counterproductive because that is going to mean more sickness in the hospital and for staff, so this can’t be led by politics or blind hope — it has to be led by the science.’
These are the areas most affected by self-isolation rules:
THE NHS
One-tenth of NHS employees are either off sick or isolated. Bosses assert that it’s almost impossible for basic patient care to be maintained due to the current shortages.
A trust that provided ambulance services asked heart-attack and stroke patients to be able to take a taxi to their hospital. It didn’t have enough paramedics.
According to the North East Ambulance Service Foundation Trust, call handlers are advised to ‘consider asking patients to be taken by family members or friends’.
Staff were informed by a message that they had to transport patients in taxis to the hospital due to “unprecedented” demand.
Eight hospital trusts, at most, have reported ‘critical events’. That means patients are suffering from routine care and staff members are being redeployed.
Covid left nearly 500 employees at Plymouth’s Derriford Hospital. Morecambe Bay NHS trust in Lancashire was declared to be in critical condition by staff who tested positive for coronavirus. The region’s public health director, Dr Sakthi Karaunanithi, stated that the hospital is prepared for an Omicron tsunami in Lancashire.
Matthew Taylor, the chief executive officer of the NHS Confederation said that the current staffing situation made it ‘almost impossible’ to meet ‘the most pressing and urgent needs.
Times Radio spoke to him that the’most pressing’ element is not the Covid patient needing treatment but the absence of staff.
Manchester, London, Cheshire, Cheshire, and some parts of Essex, Cumbria, announced that their bin collection collections will have to be missed and rearranged. Photo: Recycling and rubbish collection in Birmingham during the festive period
BIN ROUNDS
Manchester, Birmingham, London and Cheshire announced that the bin collection would need to be missed or rearranged.
Birmingham’s streets were littered with garbage.
Pavel Bartos (23), of Aston said that residents have been waiting for their garbage bins to be emptied since just before Christmas. He said, “It has been a nightmare. The place is left looking completely tippy.”
It is a complete eyesore. We thought they would have been collected by now but it hasn’t. This is like living in an arid slum.
“We were warned that Christmas collections wouldn’t be made due to staff shortages, however it’s now been four days and it still looks terrible.”
North Somerset Council could not pick up 1,000 bins of recycling on New Years Eve due to staff sickness. The spokesperson for the Local Government Association suggested that council employees be given priority for Covid testing.
Due to approximately one out of ten railway staff being sick, operators had to cut dozens daily services. Train companies will offer reduced service for several weeks. Image: Victoria station, yesterday
Railway commuters suffered disruptions on the first day of the new year due to staff shortages, reduced timetables, and problems with tracks and trains
TRAINING
Railroad commuters faced disruption on the very first day of this year, due to staff shortages as well as slashed schedules and problems with tracks and trains.
Due to approximately one out of ten railway staff being sick, operators had to cut dozens daily services. Some railway companies will offer reduced service for several weeks.
TransPennine Express canceled 24 trains on Tuesday; CrossCountry has pulled around 50 daily services through next week.
LNER has reduced 12 of its services between London and Leeds to Friday, according to the East Coast Main Line.
Southern does not offer any service between London Victoria, Victoria and Southern beyond January 10.
Gatwick Express service, which was restored three weeks after its 18-month suspension, was suspended indefinitely. ScotRail will reduce its usual 2,000 trains per day to 160, meaning that there will be fewer services into and out of Edinburgh and Glasgow.
Transport for Wales also cancelled nearly 100 trains between Newport, Crosskeys, Chester, and Liverpool Lime Street.
Care Homes
Mike Padgham is chairman of Independent Care Group which represents Yorkshire care homes. He said that the current staff shortage is ‘the worst since the pandemic.
He stated that some home and care provider care homes are in financial trouble and asked the government to call on retired doctors and nurses to help support struggling social services.
In a letter addressed to ministers, he stated that ‘a functioning social care sector is necessary to ensure the NHS can operate effectively. People cannot be discharged from care settings if they are not overwhelmed.
“At the moment that can’t be guaranteed, and I fear setting up surge hubs won’t be a long-term option as they will also struggle for staff.
The Christmas break is over and pupils have returned to school. Due to an increased number of coronavirus infections, secondary school students from England are advised to wear masks to lessons. Pictured: Pupils work in a classroom at The Fulham Boys School on the first day after the Christmas holidays
SCHOOL
The school leaders expressed concern that the shortage of staff could cause more disruptions to education.
Union leaders warned that there could be a “stressful period” ahead. Existing teacher absences starting on term one may become more challenging in weeks to come. In some schools, one out of five teachers could not be present at the beginning of term.
After the Christmas break, pupils are being asked to return to school. Secondary students in England should wear masks to lessons because of an increase in coronavirus infections. College and secondary students can also be encouraged to perform a site test prior to returning to classes.
In the coming weeks, many students could be wearing coats to lessons as academy leaders and heads improve ventilation in order for classrooms to remain safe.