Scientists believe that Omicron Hotspot London’s Covid cases may have reached their peak a week prior to Christmas.
On December 21, slightly more than 33,000 people in capital were tested positive. Then, the average infection rate dropped to 5%. Some of the most affected boroughs already have cases that are trending downwards.
MailOnline received a statement from one of the advisers to the Government indicating that there was a possibility of rates dropping due to a decline in cases.
Others urged caution regarding the numbers, saying that they might be affected by the fact that fewer testing was done over Christmas. However, statisticians insisted that the rate would eventually fall, but it was difficult to predict when.
Although Covid infections rates seem to have fallen in London, the worst cases are still being reported throughout the entire pandemic.
According to statistics from the UK Health Security Agency, almost three percent of Lambeth residents were infected with the virus between December 23 and 23, according to UKHSA. This does not include people who had their hands swabbed. Up to half the infected do not get tested.
Omicron-fueled infections that were first seen in London are likely to spread across the country over the next weeks. There is a steady increase in the number of cases across all regions. Ministers already rejected the possibility of placing restrictions in place to combat Omicron.
But hospitalisations and deaths – the key measurements monitored by ministers to determine whether tougher curbs are required to control the spread of the virus – are still a fraction of the levels seen last winter.
London has seen a double-digit increase in Coronavirus hospitalizations within a week. The combination of rising staff absences and pressure on NHS hospitals have exacerbated the problem. However, daily hospitalisations remain below 400 per day which could prompt a government intervention.
NHS officials have cautioned that many admissions may be accidental as these include patients admitted to the hospital for routine surgeries or other conditions, but who also happen to test positive for Covid. However, they are concerned that Covid hospitalization numbers will increase in the next weeks.
2.8% of Lambeth residents tested positive in the week ending December 23, (second image), followed by 2.6% in Wandsworth, Southwark, and Lewisham (2.66% and 2,621 respectively per 100,000), and 2.5% in Lewisham (2.5331 per 100,000). However, these boroughs experienced the lowest weekly growth rates in infection rates when compared to that of December 16th (first photo). It is possible that London’s disease epidemic has been flattening. The cases rose 11% in Wandsworth and 15% in Lambeth. They also rose by 25% in Southwark, 33% in Lewisham, and 15 percent in Lambeth.
Cases rose by 12 per cent in the week ending December 23 in Wandsworth, 15 per cent in Lambeth, 25 per cent in Southwark and 43 per cent in Lewisham – the areas with the highest infection rate
According to reports, ministers will be closely monitoring Omicron London admissions. Any breach exceeding 400 is likely to result in further national restrictions. Boxing Day data showed that 374 individuals were admitted into the capital, an increase of 73% from the previous week.
However, the UKHSA reported positive Covid infections for each of the subsequent four days to December 27, London. These figures are still incomplete.
As more positive test results are received, they will be updated upwards and backdated accordingly.
This is the latest accurate number for December 23rd (27-218). This is down from the 28.696 or 30.269) days.
In recent days, cases have fallen in the most infected areas.
2.8% of Lambeth residents tested positive for the virus in the week ending December 23. Southwark had 2.6% and Wandsworth at 2.6%, respectively.
These boroughs saw some of the most negative week-on-week growth.
The cases rose only 15% in Lambeth, 25% in Southwark, and 43% in Lewisham.
In comparison, cases rose between 166 to 265 percent in the boroughs during the week of December 16th.
The week-on-week rate of growth doesn’t account for recent trends in infection rates, which indicate a decline in many boroughs.
Experts are concerned about the interpretation of London infections numbers because they heavily reflect testing.
The capital carried out around 270,000 tests per day in the week before Christmas, and test positivity — which measures the number of samples containing the virus — continued to rise.
One-fourth of those who had a PCR done in the weeks leading up to December 22 were found to be infected, compared to the one-in-16 people before Omicron swept the country.
MailOnline spoke with Professor Peter Openshaw of Imperial College London, who is an immunologist. He also works as a SAGE scientist.
He added, “I wish this was good news, but I really urge caution.”
Professor Openshaw stated that Christmas can cause data errors and that indoor New Year festivities could lead to cases going up.
MailOnline was informed by Professor Kevin McConway of The Open University’s emeritus department of applied statistics, that it’s ‘difficult’ to determine whether London cases reached their peak. This is because testing patterns have changed significantly over the Christmas period, and this can be reflected in confirmed case numbers.
According to him, the decline in infections after December 21 may be due to the weekly patterns in cases that peak on Tuesdays or Wednesdays, and not “definite evidence of an alteration in the trend”.
McConway explained that London cases would fall once the virus has outfected all of its victims.
‘It’s reasonably clear that case numbers in London are at least rising more slowly, but we just can’t be sure when the peak is reached – not yet anyway.’
According to him, the London positivity rate will eventually fall but that’s hard to know because of uncertainties with London’s infection trends and testing patterns.
UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) data showed 129,471 people tested positive in England over the last 24 hours, up 43 per cent on last week’s figure of 90,629 — which included case numbers for the other home nations as well
Daily death numbers were also affected due to reporting blips during the holiday period. This confused the truth of the Covid epidemic.
MailOnline’s infectious disease specialist at the University of East Anglia Professor Paul Hunter stated that London’s cases of serious illness have not peaked. He said positive tests in London in the week prior to Christmas would be lower than actual cases because more people will opt for testing, even if they are feeling symptomatic, in the weeks before Christmas.
He said that it is not always clear whether cases change around bank holidays.
Professor Hunter stated that London is “particularly difficult” because many Londoners will leave London over Christmas in order to spend time with their loved ones.
“Also schools closing means that fewer people are doing regular lateral flows tests.
“The percentage of London test positives on December 22nd was 24.9%, up from 24.2 percent the previous day so it is possible that this has not reached its peak yet.
The death rate in capital has remained relatively stable at 12 per day for the past four weeks after a positive blood test, as opposed to November’s 11 deaths.
London witnessed around 70 deaths per hour last year. The winter’s peak was more than 200.
However, hospitalisations, which ministers closely monitor, are being monitored with a breach at 400 per day in London likely to cause further restrictions throughout the country. Boxing Day saw 374 patients admitted in London’s hospitals, an increase of 73% on the previous week.
Due to how long it takes for someone to get seriously unwell following a positive test, the trend in admissions is two- to three weeks behind that in cases.
However, the December 26 admission rate of 374 is lower than that of London’s 607 residents and much less than London’s 977 peak.
According to UKHSA, 40% of Omicron-infected patients were not vaccinated.
NHS officials cautioned against reading too much into the numbers of Covid patients being admitted to hospital. They overestimate the true impact on the NHS.
Chris Hopson is the Chief Executive Officer of NHS Providers. Yesterday, he stated: “Trust leaders are closely watching their current hospital admissions records.
Chief executives are expressing concern that hospital admissions have increased but not in a rapid manner. It is particularly fascinating to see how many chief executives talk about the increasing number of patients who are symptomatic and being admitted for non-medical reasons, then later testing positive for Covid.
Trusts don’t currently report large numbers patients suffering from Covid respiratory conditions that require either critical care or elevated oxygen consumption. We saw both in the January Delta variant peak.
“We must be cautious when interpreting the current Covid admissions data,” he said. He said trusts were preparing for the worst, and hoping for good.
