England’s entire population would be infected with Covid, which is only 35,000 more than the 25,000. This was backed up by several SAGE scientists.
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) analysis suggests the NHS is unlikely to be overwhelmed by the virus even in the event of a major surge.
Researchers looked at vaccination rates and cumulative infection numbers in 18 countries in Europe to estimate levels of immunity and work out what would happen if everyone was suddenly exposed to the virus.
England, with its 34,720 admissions as well as 6,200 deaths would be the most affected by the scenario. Even though the model only looked at England, there is nothing to suggest Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be hit harder.
For comparison, there have been over 500,000 Covid hospitalisations within England in the past 18 months. Only 140,000 people died from the virus.
The study estimated around 280,000 people in Germany would be hospitalised with the virus — the most of any country in Europe — while Romania would suffer around 150,000.
The researchers include Dr Rosanna Barnard, Dr Nick Davies and Dr Adam Kucharski — three members of SAGE whose modelling has been instrumental in Government policy during the pandemic.
They said higher levels of prior infection and the success of the booster rollout in England meant the country is likely to be better protected than its neighbours this winter.
After it lifted all restrictions on England in July, Britain became the “sick man” of Europe and cases rose to up to 50,000 per day. However, experts believe the early opening allowed for more cases to be frontloaded. That means that there is now greater immunity in Britain than Europe.
Scientists also believe Britain’s longer dosage gap between vaccines — 12 weeks compared to three weeks on the continent — has afforded Brits longer lasting immunity from jabs.
Research by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found that only 62 percent of 100,000 English citizens would require hospitalization if Covid was introduced. Because of its booster rollout success and the high level of previous infection, it is expected to have the lowest number in Europe.
In Europe, there are more Covid intensive-care inpatients than ever before. This is a trend that has been evident since the beginning of this year. The UK is seeing a steady increase in the number of intensive-care patients.
Austria is home to the most Covid cases per capita in Europe. It’s followed by Belgium, Ireland and Belgium.
The UK has outperformed all other continents in its booster program. Over 20% of Brits now have a booster. This is nearly double what was available in Austria.
Europe is currently in the midst of a rapidly worsening winter Covid crisis, with cases and hospital admissions creeping up towards levels seen last winter in countries across the continent.
This continent is now facing severe restrictions, lockdown, and some countries (including Italy) have decided to mandate vaccines, sparking protests all across the continent.
The World Health Organization yesterday predicted another 700,000 Europeans could die from Covid in the coming months — despite the availability of vaccines.
In addition to slower vaccination rollouts and mData on obility shows that Europeans are more social than Britons in the recent weeks, which is a result of their cautious behavior even during lockdown.
The LSHTM paper — which has not yet been peer-reviewed and was published on the preprint website MedRxiv — estimated the number of hospitalisations for countries in the ‘short term’ — meaning it did not include the effects of waning immunity or emergence of new variants — but did not specify the exact timescale for the hospitalisations.
Also, it did not say how severe hospitalizations would be nor if intensive care would need to be provided.
The remaining deaths and admissions that might occur using the vaccine, corresponding infected death data and natural immunity numbers were modelled by researchers.
They took into account age and were based on the country’s Covid restrictions and whether people have returned to pre-pandemic levels.
There would be over 900,000 hospitalsisations in each country and more than 300,000.
Germany was the country with the most expected hospitalisations. Denmark, however, had only 6,300.
England was the least populous of all the countries that were studied while Romania was the most.
Only 62 of 100,000 patients were hospitalized in England, as compared with more than 300 in Germany.
Romania also had the highest expected death rate of 360 per 100,000, while England had just 11 per 100,000 — the lowest of any country studied — amounting to 6,157 overall.
In total, Germany was expected to have the highest death toll with 115,000, while Slovenia has the lowest with 1,200.
The authors said: ‘Aside from Romania, where vaccine coverage is low, countries with a combination of lower vaccine coverage among older age groups, relatively low prior exposure and older populations — Austria, Finland, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Slovenia — have the highest maximum remaining burdens.
They have the potential for much greater numbers of deaths and hospitalisations among the older than countries with younger populations or high levels of coverage.
Only 67million doses AZ were distributed on the continent, compared with 440m Pfizer’s. However, recent research suggests that the UK jab offers greater protection from severe diseases in the elderly.
Our results indicate that Covid death and co-morbidity in Europe is still a major problem, with over 900,000. Hospitalisations across 19 European countries being considered.
It varies greatly from country to country. Countries with less recent transmission have lower vaccine coverage or older populations that could have higher outstanding burdens.
The modelling is based on data from October and the study’s lead author Dr Lloyd Chapman said if the study was done at the end of November, it is likely the picture would look even better in England.
It comes after the WHO yesterday suggested warned Europe’s total death toll is set to spiral from 1.5million to 2.2million by March amid a ferocious fourth wave.
The figure covers 53 European countries, which includes the UK, Kazakhstan, and Russia.
If the prediction is true, this means Europe faces a winter that is only marginally better than last year despite vaccinations being readily available.
According to the WHO, the new Indian variant of the ‘Delta’ virus was responsible for the gloomy forecast.
Pascal Soriot, AstraZeneca’s chief executive, said yesterday that the spiraling admissions could have been caused by delayed vaccine distributions to the older population.
Mr Soriot said the decision by most major EU nations to restrict the jab earlier in the year could explain why Britain’s neighbours are now starting to record higher intensive care rates despite having similar case numbers to the UK.
Only 67million doses have been administered to AZ across Europe, compared with 440m Pfizer’s. However, recent research suggests that the Oxford-made jab offers greater protection from severe diseases in the elderly.
French President Emmanuel Macron was charged with politicizing the British-made vaccination rollout in January. He called it ‘quasi effective’ for those over 65, and said that the UK had rushed to approve it. This is what many described as Brexit bitterness.
Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel 66 added to the initial doubts regarding the vaccine. In February, she stated that she would not receive the vaccine as the country’s vaccine regulator notoriously suggested at the time that no one over 65 should get it. But Merkel did eventually get the AstraZeneca in April.
EU scepticism surrounding the jab revolved around two Covid-positive people aged 65 and older, from 660 total participants.
The vaccine was approved for use in elderly populations of France, Germany, and other EU countries. However, there were many complaints about vaccine safety and people urged to get vaccinated by Pfizer. Some people, like Norway and Denmark stopped using AZ.