We have interviewed leading UK experts to address key questions about the Omicron variant of Covid, which is causing cases to double every two to three days.
What is Omicron, if you do get it?
Evidence so far indicates that the infection may be milder than Delta or the original Wuhan strain and could cause less damage to the lungs.
Cambridge University research has shown that Omicron is less effective in infecting deep-seated cells of the lungs. This can cause severe illnesses.
‘Reports from South Africa show there has been surprisingly little serious disease with the Omicron variant for the number of cases recorded,’ says Andrew Preston, a professor of microbial pathogenesis at Bath University.
However, he adds: ‘We should be cautious about extrapolating this experience to the UK because the profile of our population is very different.
Cambridge University researchers found that Omicron may be less efficient in infecting deep lungs cells. This can cause severe illnesses.
‘The UK suffered relatively badly in the first wave, suggesting our population has a higher predisposition to suffering serious disease.
‘The level of immunity also differs between the two populations and the other infectious diseases experienced during the lifetime of a South African and a UK resident is different, and this can affect how they respond to particular infections.’
Will Irving from Nottingham University is professor of virology.
‘In general, it’s down to a combination of how rapidly your immune system responds and the size of the infecting dose’ — in other words, how many virus particles you inhale.
‘It’s then a race between the pathogen replicating and the body’s attempts to eliminate the pathogen.
‘The benefit of vaccination is that it speeds up the body’s response and makes it more likely that the immune system will win the race before serious disease develops.’
Why is it that the symptoms are so different?
Early data suggests symptoms of Omicron are more similar to those of the common cold: runny nose, headache, fatigue — either mild or severe — sneezing and sore throat, rather than the classic Covid symptoms such as loss of taste and smell, says Professor Preston.
‘This may be because Omicron has a number of mutations that make it different from previous variants,’ he adds.
‘For example, Omicron has 50 mutations, including 32 in the S gene, the gene that encodes the virus’s spike protein which allows it to access our cells.
‘This compares with up to 13 mutations on the S gene with Delta. It is possible some of these mutations alter its interaction with our bodies, and this changes the pattern of symptoms caused by Omicron infection.’
Another factor, he suggests, is that ‘higher levels of immunity’ in the population may alter the way Omicron interacts with our bodies, ‘limiting the amount of virus that accumulates or tissues the virus reaches.
‘There are also more respiratory viruses circulating this year — such as colds and flu — and this could also change the pattern of symptoms, as they can stimulate a general immune response in the body, causing symptoms such as fever, which is designed to slow down the reproduction of pathogens.’
Early data suggests symptoms of Omicron are more similar to those of the common cold: runny nose, headache, fatigue — either mild or severe — sneezing and sore throat, rather than the classic Covid symptoms such as loss of taste and smell, says Professor Preston
Omicron’s infectiousness is a mystery.
‘The mutations that have occurred in Omicron make it better able to infect the body,’ says Professor Preston. ‘There is some evidence to suggest that it is able to bind to the ACE2 receptor more tightly, facilitating its infection of our cells.’ ACE2 receptors are proteins found on the surface of many types of cells and the route the virus uses to infect them.
‘Also, Omicron is more able to evade immunity, from either vaccination or prior infection, so is able to infect people that other variants can’t,’ he says.
However, there are certain advantages. Omicron spreads rapidly because only a small amount of virus is needed to infect someone, says Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London, who runs the ZOE Covid tracking app.
‘The symptoms appear quicker — two days after contact — and seem to last less time. This is not ideal for the virus as people are shedding less virus for less time, and are less likely to pass it on unwittingly.’
Was it possible to capture Omicron, then Delta?
‘In short, yes,’ says Professor Preston. ‘Omicron in particular appears to be able to overcome the protection generated by both prior infection with another Covid variant such as Delta and prior vaccination.
‘This is not unusual; Delta was able to evade to some extent the immunity stimulated by the Alpha variant. The good news is that it’s almost certain any symptoms will be milder than if you hadn’t been previously infected or vaccinated.’
I’m vaccinated. Will I catch Omicron?
Covid vaccination offers far less protection than Delta for the Omicron variant.
According to initial data, Omicron protection ranges between 10 to 40% depending on which jab was given. This is according to an analysis done by the UK Health Security Agency earlier in the month. AstraZeneca provided 40 percent protection against Delta-related symptoms, and perhaps less than 10 percent against Omicron.
Two doses of Pfizer jab were given at 60 and 40 percent respectively.
Similar results emerged from research by Columbia University in the U.S. published last week, which found that Omicron is ‘markedly resistant’ to all four Covid vaccines.
Dr Susan Hopkins, the chief medical adviser for UKHSA, said: ‘I think what we’re seeing is that if you’ve had two doses more than three months ago, then it’s not going to prevent you from getting symptomatic disease.’
Covid vaccine offers far less protection than Delta for the Omicron variant. Two doses offer much more protection.
The same study found that booster shots increase protection by more than 70%. Data from Imperial College published last week backs this up. They found that Omicron immunity is between 0 to 20% two weeks after receiving a second dose. But, the protection increases to between 55 and 80% when a booster has been administered.
One reason for this is that, even though boosters aren’t designed for the Omicron variant specifically, they trigger the body into making more antibodies.
When the immune system is threatened, antibodies can be produced.
Researchers have found that the number of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, which causes Covid, is what counts.
Another study suggests that killer T cells, also activated by vaccines, still have a lot of ability to attack the virus, even if it’s a newer variant.
‘We still expect two doses of vaccine to dramatically decrease your risk of suffering serious disease from Omicron, compared to unvaccinated individuals, but it’s clear that boosters offer significantly greater protection against disease, and this is very likely to also translate into decreasing the amount of transmission as well,’ says Professor Preston.
Am I more likely to pass it on if I’m not jabbed?
‘In a word, yes,’ says Professor Irving. ‘Being vaccinated or having Covid generates some degree of protection so you can still get infected — but it will help to limit how much the virus replicates in the body and lessen your viral “load”.
However, this may not prevent an infected person from spreading their virus to others. But they are likely to be less infectious because they’re likely to carry less virus in their body and for shorter periods.’
Is it possible for my booster to kick in within a few hours?
‘When the body first comes into contact with a challenge — in this case, either the Covid pathogen itself or first vaccination — it takes between seven to 14 days to produce sufficient levels of antibodies and T-cells to fight the virus,’ says Professor Preston.
‘Subsequent responses are faster and stronger, so your immune response to a booster jab will be a matter of days, although to be on the safe side ten days is considered to be the point at which you will be receiving maximum protection.’
Professor Irving says antibody levels will remain high for four to six weeks after a booster dose and ‘decline gradually thereafter’.
‘The effect of the booster in the long term is that it generates increased numbers of memory cells, types of immune T- and B-cells, which can be activated quickly to make antibodies if there is any real infection in the future,’ he adds.
‘Memory cells can last for years against some diseases [studies show memory B-cells for smallpox last at least 60 years], and some of the antibodies produced by these memory cells will react against Omicron as, although it has mutations, the majority of the virus will remain the same.’
What makes some people feel sick after a jab?
‘The body’s immune response to both infections and vaccines generally involves inflammation to deal with the “perceived” enemy and this reaction can make us feel poorly,’ says Professor Preston.
‘So the aches and fever that some feel after a jab are actually our own body’s response to the vaccine, not the vaccine itself.
‘Inflammatory molecules called cytokines, which circulate in the blood after a jab and play a part in stimulating protection, can have various effects on the body, such as acting on the hypothalamus in the brain, which controls temperature, causing it to rise to kill off the “enemy” it thinks is there.
‘However, for most these “side-effects” of vaccines are mild and short-lived compared to the diseases they protect against.’
For the ‘vast majority of people’ side-effects to the first dose, second dose or booster, such as a sore arm, headache or temperature, will last at most 48 hours and can be controlled by paracetamol, adds Professor Irving.
‘They dissipate once the acute inflammatory response induced by the vaccine has died down.
‘However, there will be individual variation, and for a small minority of people, these side-effects may last slightly longer.’
Is there a peak for the Omicron wave?
Professor Chris Whitty, chief medical officer for England, last week predicted the Omicron wave will ‘peak quite fast’ and then fade away sooner than previous variants.
Professor Preston explains why this may happen: ‘The build-up of infection is a combination of the infectiousness of the virus and the susceptibility of the population it is infecting.
‘Omicron infections are rising fast because the variant is super-infectious and two doses of the vaccine don’t offer good protection against it, so many people are susceptible to catching it.
‘The plus side is that after quickly infecting a large number of people, these people will then develop some immunity and the pool of people who remain susceptible to Omicron will get smaller and smaller.
‘When this happens, the rate of infection will start to decrease, hopefully rapidly. Therefore, infection rates will decrease the faster the virus is eliminated from the population. The number of people getting boosted each day will also probably decrease the susceptible pool.’
Changes in behaviour — wearing face masks, cancelling parties and working from home — will also help slow down infections, says Professor Spector.
‘These changes will slow the spread of the virus, but in the new year cases could hit a peak higher than anything we’ve ever seen before,’ he says.
What accuracy are these tests?
There has been a suggestion that lateral flow tests (LFT) do not detect this variant — this is not the case because the viral proteins still bind to the antibodies used in the test.
When it comes to PCRs, ‘a number of PCR tests target three different regions of the virus genome to determine whether the virus is present or not — each test comprises three separate results, providing excellent robustness,’ says Professor Preston.
‘However, some of the mutations in Omicron lie in one of these regions [affecting the S gene PCR target]. This indicates that this test area is not able to detect Omicron. However, the tests in the other regions are able to, so the test’s reliability is very high.
‘In fact, this failure of the S gene target is proving remarkably useful, helping to quickly identify which cases are caused by Delta — a positive for all three targets — and Omicron — two positives but a negative for the S gene.
‘Genome sequencing is needed for definitive proof of Omicron infection, but this takes a week. The PCR test data is priceless while infections are increasing so quickly.’
‘If there are a lot of colds going around and more people have mucusy noses, then this could compromise the quality of the nose swab for LFTs,’ adds Professor Preston.
‘Likewise, if Omicron itself causes a runny nose, then this could produce a similar effect. However, PCR tests require both a throat and nose sweep on the same swab, so it seems unlikely to affect pcr results.’
Are there any Covid new pills I can buy?
‘Two new antiviral pills — molnupiravir and Paxlovid — have been shown to be safe and effective against Covid in clinical trials,’ says Professor Preston.
‘These medications interfere with the ability of the virus to reproduce in our bodies, hopefully reducing the severity of the infection.
‘Currently, only molnupiravir has been approved for use in the UK, and for people with mild to moderate Covid who are at increased risk of developing serious disease because they have other risk factors such as type 2 diabetes or chronic lung conditions.
‘Therefore, these pills will be targeted at this particular group of patients, rather than everyone who tests positive for the virus. These medications work well if they are administered promptly during an infection. This is why it is crucial to get a diagnosis quickly. It will be down to your GP to decide whether you should receive it.’
Yesterday, another drug was made available by the NHS, sotrovimab. This is designed to lower the likelihood of Covid-infected patients needing treatment in hospital. This must be administered within five days of infection.
If I feel sick but my test results are negative, what should I do?
‘The best course of action is to still isolate and test regularly,’ says Professor Preston. ‘No test is 100 per cent accurate.
‘In a situation where you have a very large number of Covid infections, as we are now experiencing in the UK, even a small percentage of false negatives from tests adds up to a lot of people who might have Covid even though their test is negative.
‘Taking several tests over a number of days is much more likely to give you a true result.’ Thorrun Govind, English Pharmacy Board Chair of the Royal Pharmaceutical Society, recommends having a PCR test if repeated lateral flow tests are negative but you still have symptoms, because PCR tests are more accurate.
Is it possible for someone to have Covid in their home?
‘The best advice is to isolate from them,’ says Professor Preston. ‘Covid is caught by breathing in air that is contaminated with the virus so avoid sharing the same air space as much as you can.
‘In theory the virus can travel under doors but the escape of air under doors is minimal, certainly compared to opening it. You should ask the Covid person to leave if they have to go into a different room than you do.
‘How long you should wait to enter will depend on the size of the room; if there is good turnover of air, just a few minutes will be sufficient. In the bathroom, cleaning around the sinks and taps where saliva may be present is a good idea.’
Thorrun Govind also suggests wearing masks in the home. But, cleaning the surfaces of your home will not have any significant effect as Covid is an infectious airborne disease.
Two variants of the same product were launched in South Africa.
‘No one knows where Omicron came from but South Africa was the first region that it reached with the surveillance infrastructure to pick it up,’ says Professor Preston.
‘Although first reported there, some of the early cases in other countries suggest it was already present in other places. For example, the first Belgian case had travelled to Egypt and Turkey, so the virus was clearly in other places even very early on.’
This is similar situation to the so-called ‘Kent’ (Alpha) variant, which was first detected by researchers in Cambridge thanks to sophisticated gene sequencing, but which also occurred elsewhere in the world independently.
It is possible that variants of such genes may have evolved multiple times during months for people with compromised immune systems.
Do we need to wear beak masks for protection?
You will see a lot of Europeans wearing FFP2 or FFP3 masks. What should I do?
Thorrun Govind of the Royal Pharmaceutical Society, English Pharmacy Board Chair, said that no matter what mask you select, it is important to wear the correct one.
‘The mask should cover the nose and mouth and be well-fitting with a tight seal to provide optimum protection,’ she says.
Professor Preston adds: ‘Higher quality masks such as FFP2 and 3 do provide better protection than the regular face coverings. These masks filter out smaller particles, and provide protection against airborne infectious materials in high-risk areas.
‘However, the main purpose of wearing masks in public spaces is to prevent people from transmitting the virus to others; they are not the main line of protection against contracting Covid-19 which — unfortunately — remains reducing your contacts with other people. For those people who come in contact with high doses of Covid virus frequently, like healthcare workers and patients who interact with them, FFP2 or 3 masks can be very important. It’s vital the supply of these mask types is protected for these members of our society — don’t rush out and buy one.’
Is a mask able to reduce transmission?
Professor Preston estimates that the number of transmissions is between one and twenty percent. ‘This might not sound much but day in, day out, in a country of 60 million, this amounts to a very large number of possible transmissions prevented.’