Covid cases in the UK have increased, but ministers seem to be more optimistic that this current Omicron wave will not overburden the NHS nor require additional restrictions. There are five good reasons to feel optimistic.
Incidental hospital admissions are rising
The number of Covid patients admitted to hospital has increased, currently standing at 9,546 in England.
This data doesn’t distinguish patients who were admitted for or with Covid.
In England, the number of Covid patients currently in hospitals has increased to 9,546. Image: Tuesday’s ambulance stand outside Royal London hospital
NHS chiefs say that since Omicron became dominant, they have noticed a huge rise in ‘incidental’ admissions – when patients test positive for Covid after being admitted to hospital for a different illness.
Chris Hopson, of NHS Providers, said yesterday: ‘The difference this time is we’ve got quite a few patients who are coming in – they might have fallen off their bike and knocked their head or broken their leg – and what’s happening is they’ve got no symptoms but when they arrive, they’re actually testing positive for Covid.’
One in four Covid patients admitted to London hospital for other reasons, up from 15% in autumn.
Overall, there are 3,025 London hospitals now, compared to 7,917 during the height of the epidemic in January.
The number of cases is not increasing.
Sajid Javid (Health Secretary) told MPs this month that the UK would have 1 million Omicron infections per day by New Year’s Eve. His gloomy forecast seems to be wildly exaggerated.
Omicron cases increased by a factor of three to four times per day in December. This has now been significantly reduced.
Yesterday, 129.471 cases in the UK were reported. This is an unprecedented number for the pandemic. However, positive indicators show that the sudden rise in the cases per day is slowing down. Infections have decreased by half in the last week.
Sajid javid, pictured in this photo, stated earlier this month that the UK had one million Omicron infections per day by New Year’s Eve. But his pessimistic prediction is not realistic.
Hospital stays last less time
NHS officials claim that unlike last winter, hospitals don’t report large numbers of patients who need intensive care.
Physicians claim that patients have been discharged quicker, on average staying three days.
Although the hospital population has seen an increase in patients over the past month the number assigned to intensive care has decreased. Latest data indicates that there are now 842 ventilators in the UK, as compared to 1,847 last year and 4,00 at peak.
Studies have shown Omicron to be less likely than previously discovered strains to cause serious illness. Patients are less likely than 50-70 percent to be admitted into a hospital, according to the UK Health Security Agency.
Antiviral medications are also being offered by the NHS. This will reduce hospitalization rates and help to lower vulnerability.
Vaccines still work
Omicron reduced their effectiveness in preventing hospitalization, but vaccines still have remarkable efficacy.
Omicron patients are four times more likely to be hospitalized in London than those who are not fully vaccinated. Frontline physicians say that almost all the Omicron patients in intensive care have been unjabbed.
NHS statistics show that non-vaccinated patients have a 60 per cent higher chance of ending up in intensive healthcare than their jabbed counterparts.
Omicron reduced the effectiveness of vaccines in terms of preventing hospitalization. However, they are still very effective. On Christmas Day, a NHS healthcare worker prepared a dose.
At the beginning of December, three out five London ICU beds had been occupied by patients without having received any dose.
And nine in ten of the most severely ill patients – receiving an ‘artificial lung’ therapy called Extra Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation – are unvaccinated.
Omicron is advancing at an alarming pace and experts believe jabs can prevail. Nine out of ten children over 12 years old have received one dose and 56% have had three.
Low death rates remain
Sir John Bell was regius professor at Oxford University of Medicine and said that yesterday’s mass Covid deaths were “now history”.
Omicron has not yet led to an increase in UK deaths, even though the numbers of hospitalisations are increasing.
Yesterday, 18 people died. The average daily death rate is 84. Last January was the deadliest month in history. Deaths reached a peak of 1,000 per day, with an all-time high of 1,820 for January 18.
Omicron cases in South Africa peaked around December 1, but deaths there have been a steady decline compared to previous highs.
They currently have 50 to 60 deaths per day, compared with more than 400 during the summer.