Omicron is causing milder disease than Delta in patients in the epicentre of the new Covid variant, the first major real-world study in South Africa confirmed today.
The estimated value of 78,000 Omicron cases that were analysed by officials in the last month was $78,000.he risk of hospitalisation was a fifth lower than with Delta and 29 per cent lower than the original virus.
As a crude rate, Omicron is currently leading to a third fewer hospital admissions than Delta did during its entire wave — 38 admissions per 1,000 Omicron cases compared to 101 per 1,000 for Delta.
These findings support the hypothesis that the ultra-infectious strain is less infectious than other strains. This has been the claim of South African doctors for several weeks.
But the reduction in severity is probably not solely down to Omicron being intrinsically milder, according to the South African Medical Research Council which led the analysis.
Most South Africans are now free from Covid, with 70% of them having recovered. 23% of those who have been double-vaccinated also show high immunity.
This will increase optimism that Omicron Wave in the UK won’t be as intense than other peaks. However, it will have a denser and older population. The UK, however, is distributing booster jabs in large numbers. This contrasts with South Africa.
A study by Pfizer found that two doses of its vaccine provide 70% protection from Omicron infection and death. This is in contrast to the 93% for Delta.
This is four times more protection that was initially believed by scientists, but it leaves 30% of the population vulnerable to Omicron disease. Waning immunity from two Pfizer doses was found to offer just 33 per cent protection against Omicron infection, explaining why the country has seen a meteoric rise in case numbers.
Despite the optimism, No10 was warned today by chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty there will be a a ‘significant increase in hospitalisations’ from Omicron in the coming weeks. UK experts are concerned that different demographics in Britain make the country more susceptible to high infection numbers and hospital pressure.
Omicron is a virus that causes hospitalisation in 78,000 cases. Officials who examined the Omicron cases over the past month discovered that the risk of being hospitalized was five times lower than for Delta (in blue) and 29% lower than the original (darkblue). Omicron in blue and South African’s original ‘Beta’ variant in dark blue are shown. Even though numbers are still low, children had a 22% higher chance of being admitted to hospital with complications in the second wave.
As a crude rate, Omicron is currently causing a third fewer hospital admissions than Delta did during its entire wave — 38 admissions per 1,000 Omicron cases, compared to 101 per 1,000 for Delta
Also, the study found that Pfizer’s Omicron vaccine provides 70% protection against death or hospital admissions. This is in contrast to Delta’s 93%.
The country’s rapid increase in Omicron-related cases is due to the fact that reducing immunity by two Pfizer doses only offered 33% protection.
Two Pfizer jabs against Delta initially provide more than 80 percent protection from symptomatic infections, but then drop to 60 per cent after six months.
The study today, which was co-run with private insurance company Discovery Health and based more than 211,000 positive Covid results between November 15th to December 7, 78,000 were attributable to Omicron.
Four in ten people tested positive for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccination had already received at least two doses.
The 70 per cent protection from severe disease figure still puts two doses well above the World Health Organization’s efficacy threshold of 50 per cent.
Researchers found that the effectiveness of older individuals was even lower.This dropped to just 59% in the 70-79 bracket.
It could also be that the older population was vaccinated first during the initial rollout. This has allowed for more immunity time than younger individuals.
Protection against admission was consistent across a range of chronic illnesses including diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and other cardiovascular diseases, the study said.
Even though the number of children admitted to hospital with complications was still small, it appeared that they had a 20% greater chance during the fourth wave.
Shirley Collie is chief health analytics officer at Discovery Health.
However, she cautioned that while children are still 51% less likely to be positive in the Omicron wave, the risk is low for them.
As a crude rate, Omicron is currently causing a third fewer hospital admissions than Delta did — 38 admissions per 1,000 Omicron cases, compared to 101 per 1,000 for Delta.
South Africa’s Omicron epidemic is just a month old. However, admissions to Covid are on the rise. Yesterday, 422 were admitted, an increase of 141% compared with last week.
A total of 6,198 people are being treated for the virus now compared to the 5,562 who were in hospital on Sunday — the biggest single-day rise since the new variant took off.
Even though there have been an increase in hospital visits and cases, only 11 people died from Covid over the past 24 hours. This is not a significant improvement on the week before.
Omicron Ground Zero doctors in South Africa claim that Omicron patients have milder illnesses and are being discharged faster.
Official statistics suggest that the Covid Hospital patients suffering from severe illness are three times as many at this point in the Delta wave.
South African physician who raised Omicron’s alarm last month, endorsed today’s study and told MPs it confirmed the doctors’ observations on the ground.
Dr Angelique Coetzee, chairwoman of the South African Medical Association, told the Commons Science and Technology Committee that ‘we don’t have all the answers’ but the clinical picture so far is that people are mostly suffering mild illness from Omicron.
Dr. Coetzee stated that some people get breakthrough infections even if they’ve had Covid previously. However, the cases seem to be less severe for those who have been vaccinated.
She said that the breakthrough infections she is seeing are not severe.
“On a hospital-level…between 88 to 90% (of people are not vaccinated)
It is difficult to tell the difference between Omicron and Delta variant patients in hospitals, she said. But intensive care units are’still not overwhelmed’.
Senior research fellow for global health at University of Southampton Dr Michael Head stated that the analysis only covers three weeks of data. He said it was important not to infer too much from any particular national situation right now.
He said: “For instance, South Africa’s narrative suggests that Omicron is milder than reports from Denmark.
This is because of the uncertainties in new data. This includes factors such as previous infections, different exposure levels to Covid-19, vaccine levels and potential waning in immunity. It also considers the age of those who have been infected.
“We have seen that Covid-19 can move from older to younger populations in just a few weeks.
Is Omicron more severe or milder than Delta? The only way to find out is time. This will become clear to the greatest scientists in the world, many of them from South Africa.
National-level decision-makers must for now consider discretion to be the best part of valour.
Meanwhile, Professor Chris Whitty has warned ministers to brace for a ‘significant increase in hospitalisations’ from Omicron, as Downing Street insisted no further coronavirus restrictions are being planned.
After South Africa’s early warnings that the strain could be mild, England’s chief Medical Officer stated that it was too soon to know how severe it is.
Boris Johnson warned his ministers that the variant could cause a “huge spike” in cases across the country. He also pressures Tory rebels during Commons votes to support his Plan B restrictions.
Downing Street accepted a suggestion by Omicron experts that Omicron case numbers could rise to a million per week next week. It was based on an ‘valid’ estimation from the UK Health Security Agency which stated that Omicron infection rates are around 200,000 each day.
Dominic Raab, Deputy Prime Minister, stated that Plan B restrictions such as mandatory mask-wearing and use of Covid certificates for large venues would be enough to keep Christmas safe. This will allow families to spend time with their loved ones.
The downbeat assessment that Prof Whitty gave to the Cabinet meeting, which was the first to be held in person in months, will cause concern about whether additional measures might be required in the coming year.
Ministers were told by him that it was not possible to determine whether South African cases are plateauing.
According to the account by No 10, he said that although it was too soon to know how severe Omicron’s variant is, we could expect an increase in hospitalisations with increasing cases.
Angelique Coetzee (South African Medical Association Chair) stated that Omicron is rare in mild cases to MPs of the Science and Technology Committee.
Downing Street supported the UK Health Security Agency’s estimation that around 200,000 people could have the strain.
“We believe it to be a valid number, which is recognising that it is an estimation and models have wide ranges,” the official spokesperson for Prime Minister said.
“It provides an insight into how fast Omicron transmits, and we expect it will become the dominant variant of London today.”
A suggestion that Omicron infections could reach a billion by the week’s end was not rejected. Instead, the spokesperson stated: “Like my words, Omicron cases are rising significantly.”
But, despite those figures, he said there is no plan to exceed Plan B restrictions. They are expected be supported by Labour in Tuesday’s Commons vote.
‘We need to learn more about this variant on things like severity before we decide what – if any – action is required in the future,’ he added.
Downing Street also maintained there is substantial testing capacity following the discovery that some areas of England have no PCR test slots at drive-in and walk-in locations for coronavirus patients.
A spokesperson for ministers stated that they are working with Amazon and Royal Mail on expanding the availability of delivery slots. This is because lateral flow test orders were no longer available through the Government website.
Ministers have placed their hope on Plan B, an acceleration of booster programme to give all adult English citizens a third dose of Omicron vaccine by December 31st.
Times Radio’s Mr Raab stated that while the target was ‘demanding,’ he added that it would allow the country to “go into Christmas with the possibility to share it with loved ones in ways that were impossible last year.”
However, he said that he was open to considering additional measures for New Year or Christmas.
When asked if Christmas would be safe, Raab responded: “Yes. I believe it is.” That is what I would like to reassure you with. It’s possible to look forward and enjoy Christmas with your loved ones, in a different way than last year.
This assurance was made after more than 70 Backbench Tories threatened defy whips to oppose the Government’s Plan B For England. It would have been the largest rebellion against Prime Minister Since he took office at No 10.
Tony Danker (CBI Director-General) said the warnings issued by the Government were having a “chilling effect” on several sectors of the economy.
He said that although there were measures in place to maintain the economy’s openness, messages have been sent that end up shutting down a lot of it.
“People should feel worried enough that they go to the doctor immediately, but not to worry about stopping going to restaurants and shops.
“That’s the problem, it is double trouble for companies in these sectors: hospitality, retail and leisure travel. Demand is declining rapidly, there are no supports to help.
NHS England reported that Monday was its busiest day for vaccines ever since rollout. 418,000 booster jabs were delivered.