Top scientists have suggested that up to 60% of England’s population has not had Covid since the outbreak. This is according to estimations made by experts who served as advisors to ministers.
Researchers at Cambridge University believe that 23.3 million infections were actually occurring by December 17th, out of an estimated 56million population.
However, the projections were not based on Omicron. This means that the real number will likely be higher due to the rapid spread of the super-infectious variant over Christmas and New Year.
Experts said today that while the number was considered a good estimate, they would not be surprised to hear that it was closer to 30 million.
Official statistics from testing show that only 11.3 million cases have been reported across the nation since the outbreak. That includes approximately 2 million in the past two weeks.
This figure does not reflect the true toll. However, the official government toll excludes people who were positive. People who are infected with the virus could be millions and will not have been tested.
Although the Government Daily Covid data doesn’t reflect actual virus spread, it shows how severely affected some parts of the country. Since January 2020, 25% of those living in Knowsley, Merseyside, and Blackburn, with Darwen have tested positive. Similar rates can be seen in the northern hemisphere, such as Burnley and Salford as well as other Merseyside areas like Halton and St Helens. Two of the worst-hit regions are located outside Merseyside and Lancashire: Harlow and Thurrock, both from Essex
For nearly two weeks, the number of positive Covid test results in England exceeded 100,000 daily. The number of people in hospitals with this virus remains at a fraction the rate seen last winter. However, deaths are still low.
Although more than 11million English people have tested positive in the wake of the pandemic, experts estimate that there are many others who are infected. UKHSA officials estimate that between one-third and half of all cases are being recorded. This is because many people don’t have symptoms warranting a test. Some people have cold-like symptoms and avoid testing.
Regular estimates by Cambridge academics on England’s coronavirus crisis provide an overview of the situation, including the deaths and levels of infection.
The team’s mathematical calculations – known as a ‘nowcast’ – is all based on modelling, using an array of official data to reflect constantly changing trends.
It was originally believed that Covid’s total infection-fatality (IFR) at the time of the pandemic began was 1.5%. However, this estimate predated the development of vaccines.
According to other analyses, the projection showed that over-75s were at risk of dying from the virus. This clearly shows how serious the threat is to them.
The course of pandemics has been dramatically altered by vaccines.
According to the latest estimate by nowcast, only one out of 400 Covid-infected people (or 0.25 percent) will die. This is according to their most recent estimates published just days before Christmas. This level of IFR is unchanged since July when nearly 30million people had already been fully vaccinated.
If the modelling by the team is accurate, it means that approximately 7 million people in England became infected between 2021 and 221.
The Cambridge University Group’s modeling suggests that approximately 5 million people were infected by the virus in spring 2020, and an identical number in January last year.
Other 6million or so infections took place in between the waves. They occurred during the autumn and summer of 2020, just before the Alpha variant was activated.
However, Dr Paul Birrell (statistician) admits that their calculations aren’t clear enough to show how quickly Omicron is gaining ground in England.
Because they offer only a December 17 situation report, more than 1.7million cases have been confirmed to be Covid.
According to the Cambridge calculation, approximately 900,000.000 infections were reported between December 1, 2017 and December 17. The UK Health Security Agency logged 800,000.
However, the Daily Cases Number, which is published each day on Government’s Dashboard, is an enormous underestimate of the real number.
UKHSA officials claim between a quarter and half of all infected people are not recorded. That is due to the fact that a large number of people will never show symptoms warranting a test. Other people may have symptoms similar to a cold and refuse to be tested.
For this reason, the total number of positive tests – around 11.4million in England alone – doesn’t reflect the actual spread of the virus.
These figures however show just how severely some areas have been affected. 25% of residents in Knowsley in Merseyside or Blackburn and Darwen tested positive for HIV since January 2020.
Similar-high rates were also seen in large swathes north of England, such as Salford and Burnley and the Merseyside boroughs St Helens or Halton.
Two of the worst affected areas in England are not located outside Lancashire or Merseyside. They are Harlow and Thurrock, both from Essex.
Paul Hunter is an infectious disease specialist at the University of East Anglia. He said that England’missed many infections in the initial wave’ because it didn’t ramp up its testing fast enough.
The number of people infected with the virus was underestimated by subsequent anti-body tests, which he explained.
Professor Hunter said the weekly Office for National Statistics infection survey — based on random testing of tens of thousands of Britons — ‘is probably the best source’ of data for Covid incidence rates, and that these are slightly more than double the number of daily confirmed positive tests.
Professor Hunter warned that even the estimated 23.3 million is likely to be too low. According to Hunter, he thinks the actual number is closer to 30 million.
Kevin McConway is a statistician from the Open University. He said that the Cambridge University study was “probably a good estimation” of Britain’s Covid crisis.
MailOnline modelling is dependent on assumptions, which he stated to MailOnline. The team’s number will undoubtedly have gone up since December 17.
Official tally only counts people one time, while estimates from the Cambridge academics include potentially reinfected individuals.
Because of the changes in testing throughout the epidemic, it is almost impossible to determine the spread of the virus from daily case numbers.
Ministers in the initial wave of pandemic were found to be lacking in testing, with health officials rationing tests only for patients and key workers.
The levels began to rise to get a better picture of the real crisis. However, millions of infections were still not detected.