Oksana Lanskaya is a Ukrainian mother who has also been a successful entrepreneur in the field of Ukrainian food. She admits to being afraid now that Russian military forces are encircling her country and there’s a greater threat of war.
The 35-year-old pregnant lady has opened new locations for her frozen food business, which she runs together with her husband.
Oksana said, “The situation is deeply concerning and we cannot even imagine how dire it could get,” as she is currently pregnant with her second baby.
‘As a business owner, I need to plan ahead – I have a production line, stores, supplies, deliveries. However, what happens if Russia invades Ukraine in the future?
Oksana is like so many Kievans, having friends that lost their entire lives when Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea in 2014 and sparked up separatist insurgency.
She asked, “Should i just close my company now and then sell all the rest?” She asked.
That question can’t be answered except by the Kremlin. However, this woman’s worry shows that Kiev has become increasingly worried. With a large majority of Ukraine’s 44million citizens believing that an attack could be imminent and citizen militias ready to fight invading soldiers, it is clear that the mood is changing.
Oksana, a realist, is scared that history will repeat itself.
Russia has no chance of winning against Ukraine. Although our soldiers will continue to fight, they will not be outnumbered. The West won’t go to war against Russia in the Ukraine conflict.
IAN BIRRELL: The mood in Kiev is growing worried with a majority of Ukraine’s 44million population believing an attack seems likely and citizen militias preparing for guerrilla warfare against invading forces (Pictured: Anatoliy, a Ukrainian soldier with the 56th Brigade, in a trench on the front line on January 18, 2022 in Pisky, Ukraine)
IAN BIRRELL : The British supply of anti-tank weapons for self-defence as well as some training personnel has made the Ukrainian military significantly stronger and better equipped. Yuriy Butusov (military analyst) said the UK support is important. He added that Putin must confront the facts. London informed Moscow that Ukraine will receive emergency weapons assistance in case of war.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, pictured at the Kremlin during Tuesday’s meeting
Russian military personnel prepare their vehicles to be unloaded for Russia and Belarus during the joint military drill held in Belarus, January 18, 2018.
“We will be forced to confront Russian tanks alone again, just like we did in 2014”
This time, however, Ukrainian forces are substantially stronger and better equipped – boosted by Britain’s supply of short-range anti-tank missiles for self-defence and some troops to provide training.
Yuriy Butusov (military analyst) said the UK had provided significant support and that Putin must confront the facts. London informed Moscow that Ukraine will receive emergency weapons assistance in case of war.
Putin’s intentions can be difficult to understand: Is Putin trying to pressure Ukraine into joining NATO or is there a sinister plan to start a war in Europe?
Ukraine is clearly disquieted by the way its viewpoints are being overlooked in the geopolitical discussion, often seen as just a clash of Russia and the West.
The country was excluded from the failed talks last week between Russia and US diplomats.
The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to meet with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in a desperate effort to avoid war. He will then hold talks today with foreign ministers from Russia, including Liz Truss, Britain, and Sergei Lavrov.
Ukraine’s defence chief Oleksiy Danilov has warned about 122,000 Russian troops are massed within 200km of the border – and 143,000 more within a 400km zone.
Russia would need 175,000 people to carry out a complete invasion.
Moscow is currently gathering tens to thousands of soldiers, tanks, and artillery pieces in its eastern flank. This has triggered fears about an invasion. However, the Kremlin insists it’s a defense force.
For the past eight years, Ukraine has been fighting on its eastern flank against Kremlin-backed separatists in the self-declared republics of Donetsk and Luhansk – a struggle that has left more than 14,000 dead and two million displaced.
This is a country used to living on an edge – and many citizens remain phlegmatic.
“I believe that there are chances of…” [a]Russian invasion is very low,” declared Oleksand Zitniy (40), an IT specialist from Kiev. He joined the pro-democracy protests that took place in 2014. These protests forced out a proRussian president, and led to Putin’s illegal seizing of Crimea.
Let us hope this man is right about the situation looking like a ‘war scare’ – although the father of two says he’ll assist forces fighting the Russians if there is an invasion.
The cyber-attack that struck government websites on Friday has heightened tensions. It coincided with Washington’s warning about Moscow sending saboteurs to Ukraine in order to stage a fake flag attack to justify an invasion.
Russia is increasing its military presence along 1,200-mile borders to Ukraine to surround it, starting from Crimea to the east and ending at Klintsy to the north.
It is located beside Belarus, and where it seems that Moscow’s forces are also arriving there for an alleged joint exercise.
What would Kiev do in response to such an attack?
Clearly this depends on whether it was a full-scale assault – which would mark the biggest military attack in Europe since World War Two – or, more likely, a smaller incursion into the Russian-speaking areas of the south and east.
While most analysts believe that the Ukrainian military is not up to Moscow’s level of might, they are stronger than when they surrendered Crimea in 2014. In 2014, however, their government was weakened by corruption.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence fears Putin will inflict large-scale warfare engulfing cities and high civilian death tolls (Pictured: A convoy of Russian armoured vehicles moves along a highway in Crimea, Tuesday, Jan. 18, 2022)
Matthew Bryza (ex-US diplomat) stated, “Of course Ukrainians won’t fight with Russia military. But if Russia invades they will fight.”
“They will fight tough and effectively. Putin knows that they will cause serious damage to Russian forces.
Ukraine has steadily built up its armed forces – 255,000 troops backed by 900,000 reservists – and is supported by Nato nations, with Javelin missiles and anti-armour artillery.
The country boasts the 13th largest tank force and 7th most armoured vehicle fleet in the world.
Having acquired Turkish drones, these weapons were used for the first time three months ago to attack a howitzer operated by Kremlin-backed stooges in the breakaway Donbas region of eastern Ukraine – an act that Russia hypocritically branded as ‘destablising’ and yet may have fuelled Putin’s aggressive moves.
Joe Biden’s US government has told allies it would support an armed insurgency against invading forces – and Kiev has been preparing for such a situation with civilian volunteer brigades under military command in each of the country’s 24 regions.
Russian tanks from the Novorossiysk Guards Mountain Formation participated in maneuvers Friday. This further raised the temperature at the Ukrainian border where there are 100,000 Russian troops.
Belarus Defence Ministry’s press release shows the Russian military vehicle that arrived in Belarus for the Belarusian joint military drill, ‘Union solve 2022’. This was on January 18, 2022. These exercises will be conducted next month
These units are meant to mobilize quickly and act as “roadblocks” to stop the Russian military advance. They defend terrain, while regular units prepare for combat. The Kiev government also appeals to international aid.
The groups emerged during the pro-democracy protest movement in 2014 and turned the course of the conflict, forcing Russia to openly invade after they seized back most separatist-controlled districts.
DenysAntipov, an ex-army commander and former soldier in the Donbas, says, “With no army, 2014, the volunteers battalions were all that saved our independence.” “Why else would Russian tanks have stopped fighting in 2014?”
Putin’s sabre-rattling may have been intended to reverse Ukraine’s tendency towards the West. However, it might not prove as effective as he had hoped.
A survey conducted last month showed that even four percent of east Ukrainians who are traditionally pro-Moscow said they would resist an invasion.
Ukraine has a lot of discussion about whether or not to join civilian resistance units. However, billboards encourage people to enlist. Social media warns of the necessity to have an emergency supply bag near the front door to protect yourself in the case of invasions.
Even in Russia, less than one fifth of Russians support Putin’s vision for unification with Ukraine.
Russian leader at 69, Vladimir Putin has stated repeatedly that he wants to restore Kremlin hegemony over the neighboring nations. Last year, he published a 5k word essay titled On The Historical Unity Between Russians and Ukrainians.
Ukrainian soldiers from the 56th Brigade keep their positions in Pisky’s trenches
The rambling mix of historical revisionism and fraternal love professions, as well as threats to Kiev if they were to fall into Western arms was quite a mess.
Putin said, “The path of forced integration, the establishment of an ethnically-pure Ukrainian state aggressive toward Russia”, was comparable to the consequences of using weapons of destruction against us.
No wonder that Anna Litvinova, a lawyer and civil rights activist, has said the current situation is disturbing – but believes Russia would most likely engage in small provocations.
“I doubt Russia will bring its tanks to Ukraine. This would not be a conflict between the states.
‘It would be the invasion of Europe – a direct threat to the European states such as Poland, Baltic countries. In fact, it would be the invasion of Europe as a whole.
But history has shown us that conflict can spiral even in the presence of diplomatic standoffs and large troop movements.
Anna Litvinova says, “There’s always the chance that something bad will happen.”
Kate Baklitskaya from Kiev provides additional reporting