A new poll shows that Labour has eight points more votes than the Conservatives after a difficult few weeks for Boris Johnson.
This survey was conducted over three weeks starting December 1. It suggested that Sir Keir Sterner would win the general election with a 26 seat majority.
Meanwhile the PM would lose his seat in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, which would make him the first sitting prime minister to be ejected from Parliament.
This survey was commissioned by Sunday Times and reached almost 25,000 respondents from all constituents.
This began during the Tory scandal’s height. It was also revealed in December that Downing Street may have hosted illegal parties. The country was still under Covid strict restrictions.
Partygate’s woes have only got worse over the past weeks. In a recent photo, the PM was seen drinking wine with Carrie Johnson and his colleagues at Downing Street in May 2020. Although No.10 claims it was a working meeting, they insist that there were no violations.
According to the poll, Boris Johnson (pictured) would lose his seat in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, which would make him the first sitting prime minister to be ejected from Parliament
The PM was also subject to a backbench revolt and by-election defeat from the Liberal Democrats of North Shropshire, a seat that the Tories held for almost 200 years.
Focaldata’s poll results show that the Conservatives suffered, with five other Cabinet ministers losing their seats as a consequence, Alok Sharma, Cop26 president and George Eustice the Environment Secretary.
Johnson won the general election 2019 by winning 365 seats for Conservatives against 202 Labour.
However, if there were an election tomorrow, Sir Keir’s party would win 338 seats while the Tories would have 237. This is the lowest total since Michael Howard’s unsuccessful bid to lead the Conservative victory against Tony Blair 2005.
That would make Labour win 40% and the Conservatives only 22% of the votes. The Tories took 43.6% and Labour 38.1% in 2019, respectively.
Justin Ibbett (chief executive at Focaldata) told Sunday Times, “Boris Johnson has oversaw a seismic fall in Conservative Party support across every section of society. Compare it to 1997, when Blair came to power.
Starmer is no longer viewed as an “in-waiting leader”.
“Indeed that Labour performed so well in the MRP poll, it is not due to a resurgent Labour but to Conservative collapse.
Data suggests that the reversal could be partly due to the Labour old heartlands, which prompted Tory’s decision to “get Brexit done” turning red.
According to polls, 48 of the 59 Scottish seats would go to the Scottish National Party (SNP). This would indicate confidence in First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.
And despite enjoying their shock North Shropshire gain from the Conservatives this month, as well as Chesham & Amersham in June, the Lib Dems, led by Sir Ed Davey, would fail to make any inroads on the so-called blue wall, picking up 11 seats, the exact same number as in 2019.
This survey was conducted over three weeks starting December 1. It suggested that Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour (pictured), would win general elections with a 26 seat majority.
According to the poll, Labour would win if it won all 50 seats in England’s Midlands, North England and Wales. This is a result of 2019 being blundered.
It would also gain another 10 seats from the Tories in London, including Sir Ian Duncan Smith’s seat in Chingford & Woodford Green, and Kensington.
Labour could also win 63 seats from outside of London, such as Reading, Milton Keynes Northampton Stevenage, Stevenage, High Wycombe and Northampton.
MRP (multilevel-regression and poststratification) was used to conduct the extensive survey. This statistical technique produces small geographically specific predictions. This method is more reliable than traditional polling.
Justin Ibbett (chief executive at Focaldata) stated: “Boris Johnson has seen a seismic fall in Conservative Party support across all sectors of society. Compare it to 1997, when Blair came to power.
Starmer has become a leader-inwaiting.
“Indeed that Labour performed so well in the MRP poll, it is not due to a resurgent Labour but rather the Conservative collapse.