According to data from official sources, Omicron’s spread quickly in London has already put pressure on NHS hospitals. This is according to the latest figures.
The city’s Covid hospitalisation rate – which includes patients who are ill with the virus and need medical care as well as ones who incidentally tested positive – rose by 62 per cent in a week in the final seven-day spell ahead of Christmas.
London had been at the edge of 400 admissions per night before Christmas. This was the trigger figure for New England-wide restrictions.
Despite being just a fraction of the levels seen during the depths of the devastating second wave, medics fear the rate will keep rising because of the time lag between people getting infected and becoming severely ill. Daily case numbers have yet to slow down in the city, and over-60s – who are most vulnerable to the virus – are also seeing an uptick.
With Tory MPs insisting that he does not overreact to the mutation, the Prime Minister has been trying to keep Covid restrictions from being imposed for the New Year.
Boris Johnson is understood to be leaning towards new guidance urging people in England to be careful and limit contacts – rather than imposing legally binding restrictions, such as table service in pubs or limits on household mixing.
However, the government’s position could change if hospitalisation data suggests that the NHS may be overwhelmed by an epidemic of infections. This is what No10 experts warned about throughout the holiday season.
Today’s crunch talks will be held by the PM with Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty, his two top advisors. They will discuss legal restrictions that may be necessary in order to prevent the social hurrah 2021. Omicron has been combated in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. People living there today have access to new legal restrictions in light of spiralling infections.
Official data indicates that the average daily number of Covid admissions increased 62% in seven days leading up to Christmas in London. However, they rose by 47% and 39% respectively in North West London. In the Midlands, hospitalisations have risen by 36 percent, while in North East and Yorkshire, they increased 31% and 31% respectively, as well as the South East (11%) and South East (10%). With the decline in Covid admissions, the South West has the lowest number of people seeking NHS healthcare.
Omicron has now taken control of every area in England, having first attacked the capital city during December.
London’s daily cases hit highs of 28,000-a-day in the days before Christmas – with the equivalent of 2 per cent of the capital testing positive in the week ending December 19.
However, the Office for National Statistics estimates that one-tenth of the population lived in the capital during the week preceding Christmas.
As a sign that there is hope, experts suggest the virus may already have been contained last week.
The true extent of the problem is not known due to a 48-hour data blackout. The actual figures – which will be updated on the Government’s dashboard this afternoon – are set to be presented to the PM later today.
According to Department of Health statistics, infection rates have also risen in all regions of England.
The hospitalisation rate has increased in six of seven NHS regions, and only the South West experienced a decrease in Covid admissions the week before Christmas.
Official data indicates that the average daily Covid admissions increased by 62% in seven days leading up to Christmas in London. However, they rose 47% and 39% respectively in North West London.
The Midlands saw a 36% increase in hospitalisations while they rose to Yorkshire (31%), and South East (9%).
With the decline in Covid admissions, the South West is the last part of the country with a drop in NHS patients.
However, Tory MPs found flaws in crucial figures which they will be using by ministers to support any restriction.
Based on what primary illness patients have been diagnosed with, the NHS has already broken down how many Covid beds they are using.
This suggests that around 25% of daily Covid hospitalization figures are for incidental patients, which are those who have been hospitalized due to routine operations or broken legs.
Omicron infections can be quite mild, so experts and politicians are calling for the numbers to be recorded.
Critics suggested that the NHS shouldn’t inflate Covid admissions. They should not include patients initially admitted for an injury or other reason.
Ministers weigh up hospital counts to assess whether tougher Covid curbs might be needed.
Officials believe that Covid infected patients cause strain to hospitals, as they must be kept isolated no matter what their condition.
This virus may also cause health issues to worsen and then lead to the patient being kept in hospital.
The NHS data also shows that they have fewer employees as more people are being treated for the virus at home.
London’s largest trust has seen a triple-digit increase in absences due to Covid, which is causing major problems for hospitals in the weeks ahead.
The NHS leadership were also instructed to plan to establish field hospitals in hospital carparks, and pop-up wards within offices or meeting rooms in order to deal with the pressure.
This comes at a time when the Prime Minister struggles to avoid tough Covid restrictions in the New Year, ahead of an important meeting with scientists.
Johnson will have talks with his advisers in order to see if there are legal safeguards that can be put in place to combat Omicron.
Downing Street is understood to be leaning towards new guidance urging people in England to be careful and limit contacts – rather than imposing new legally binding restrictions such as table service in pubs or limits on household mixing.
However, this may change if there is a rising tide of coronavirus infection in the NHS.
In the recent days, the PM considered several restrictions, such as closing restaurants and pubs indoors, returning the rule of 6 or restricting how many households meet indoors, and limit capacity for mass events.
Cabinet would be required to approve any legally binding restrictions, which would then need to get rubber stamped by MPs.
But last night sources said the recall of Parliament was looking less likely than it had before Christmas – an indication that Downing Street is leaning away from stricter curbs. Simple guidance, asking people to restrict their contact, would be sufficient without Parliamentary sanctioning it or backing from Cabinet.