The Residence Workplace underestimated what number of EU nationals would apply to stay right here after Brexit by as much as 1.7million.
An official watchdog yesterday stated the quantity searching for to guard their proper to dwell and work within the UK – and proceed to make use of companies together with the NHS – ‘far exceeded’ Whitehall forecasts.
Officers believed between 3.5million and 4.1million can be eligible to use for ‘settled standing’ below the EU Settlement Scheme, or EUSS, which was launched in 2019.
However in actuality 5.2million functions had been granted by the tip of December, with extra nonetheless to course of.
The Residence Workplace underestimated what number of EU nationals would apply to stay right here after Brexit by as much as 1.7million
The additional 1.7million roughly equals the populations of Birmingham and Liverpool mixed.
The report from the Unbiased Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration, David Neal, reveals how the Authorities was caught off guard by the true variety of EU nationals.
The official estimates had been primarily based on information from the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics which indicated solely 3.45million Europeans have been residing right here, the inspector’s report stated. ‘The numbers making use of to the EUSS have far exceeded Residence Workplace estimates,’ it added.
The EUSS was the primary train to formally rely the variety of Europeans residing in Britain. Tony Blair’s Labour authorities relied on analysis which instructed 13,000 extra migrants a yr would arrive within the UK from 2004, when Poland and 7 different jap European nations joined the bloc
‘Functions from Romanian, Bulgarian, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish residents within the UK have been greater than estimated.’
The EUSS was the primary train to formally rely the variety of Europeans residing in Britain. Tony Blair’s Labour authorities relied on analysis which instructed 13,000 extra migrants a yr would arrive within the UK from 2004, when Poland and 7 different jap European nations joined the bloc.
Former Labour house secretary Jack Straw admitted in 2013 that permitting jap European migrants unrestricted entry to the British labour market had been a ‘spectacular mistake’.
On the finish of final yr the biggest variety of EUSS functions have been from Romanians, with 1.13million, adopted by Poles with 1.12million. Third have been Italians with 560,000.
Mr Neal’s report quoted an unnamed ‘stakeholder’ saying: ‘We don’t know what number of EU residents dwell within the nation, we don’t know the place they dwell, and we don’t know what nationality they’re.’ As soon as an EUSS software has been accepted, Europeans can dwell and work within the UK indefinitely.
They preserve their pre-Brexit rights to make use of the NHS, research and entry public funds and advantages.
The EUSS obtained slightly below 6.4million functions by the tip of final yr, however small proportions have been both rejected, withdrawn, invalid or duplicates.
Alp Mehmet, of Migration Watch UK which campaigns for harder border controls, stated: ‘This report is a reminder of the huge hole between what number of EU residents we have been instructed have been right here and the precise quantity. This casts severe doubt on different immigration figures from the Authorities, which has persistently underplayed the size and undercounted future migration. Such unreliability just isn’t misplaced on the citizens.’
Madeleine Sumption, director of Oxford College’s Migration Observatory, stated: ‘Analysts have lengthy suspected that official figures virtually actually under-estimated the variety of individuals residing right here.
‘However additionally it is vital to notice that the general quantity who’ve settled standing below the EUSS might now not be on this nation, and have been making use of merely to maintain their choices open in future.’