Neil Ferguson of ‘Professor Lockdown” today denied that there would be another national shutdown to deal with the Omicron super variation, as it is expected to dominate before Christmas.
According to the Government scientist, No10 was locked down last spring after his modeling showed that the government might allow stay-at home orders to be reinstated if the mutant strain is able overwhelm the NHS.
The BBC Radio 4 Today broadcaster said that there was a logic to trying to slow down the situation. This is to allow us to pump boosters to people, as we believe people who get boosted have the highest level of protection. However, it also allows us to better identify the threat.
After the increase in British Omicron cases to 437, there are increasing concerns regarding Christmas freedoms. The highly evolved variant is now found in all countries in the UK as well as almost every part of England.
But experts warn thousands of cases are flying under the radar because not all samples are analysed for variants and Omicron is estimated to be doubling every two or three days — much faster than when Delta exploded on the scene.
Reports claim that No10 has already begun to plan for Britons working from home, and offices will be shut down in order to prevent any Christmas curbs. According to one source, Johnson received a “sobering” briefing yesterday by his chief scientists in order to relax ministers who are seeking tougher curbs.
Ministers are due to review the current suite of anti-Omicron measures — compulsory masks and stricter travel testing — on December 18, which has raised fears that Britons could be stung by last-minute curbs just days before Christmas.
Professor Ferguson stated that WFH, although it would not stop the virus from spreading, could help slow down the process. This will allow the country to buy precious time and extend the time it takes for the doubled time to at least five or six more days. Although it doesn’t sound like much, this could be a significant step in helping us better understand the virus and improve immunity.
Omicron, according to the Imperial College London scientist, is alarming, but not yet clear how it will impact severe diseases, hospitalisations, or deaths.
Last night’s first laboratory study on the super-variant of South Africa revealed that those who received two doses Pfizer vaccine produced forty times fewer antibodies than people exposed to Omicron.
Professor Ferguson stated that Omicron could reduce the effectiveness of vaccines against mild diseases by half. However, he maintained that they would still be effective in fighting severe illnesses.
Professor Tim Spector was an eminent epidemiologist who claimed Omicron infections were increasing at a rate of doubling each day. This graph illustrates how Omicron infection rates could exceed 100,000 before New Year’s Day if current trends continue.
Professor Ferguson suggests that some people could be instructed to work at home as Omicron spreads quickly and is expected to replace Delta before Christmas.
He spoke in his own capacity and said that Omicron cases are increasing rapidly. This is why it’s a problem.
“It is likely that Delta will be overtaken before Christmas, at this rate. But when exactly?
‘We’ll start seeing an impact on overall case numbers – it’s still probably only 2%, 3% of all cases so it’s kind of swamped, but within a week or two, we’ll start seeing overall case numbers accelerate quite markedly as well.’
Professor Ferguson stated that the height of the infection wave will occur in January, if it is not stopped.
“Even if nothing is done at the moment, January will be the most likely time to do something.” However, the main question will be whether it decides to take measures to try and stop the trend. That is dependent on how serious it really is in terms hospitalisations.
“At this time, we don’t have any information on how severe the virus is. However, the UK data suggests that the infection rate may be slightly higher if the patient has symptoms. But, it’s important to confirm that at the present moment.
He was asked whether people should be instructed to work at home. His answer: “It will remain up to Government to determine what information to release in the coming days or weeks.
“There’s a reason, epidemiologically speaking, for us to slow down this process. We want to give us more time, primarily to inject boosters in people’s arms, because we believe people who have been boosted will be protected the most, but also to allow us to better understand the threat.
‘So if you imagine a kind of Plan B Plus with working from home might slow it down – it wouldn’t stop it but it could slow it down, so it’s doubling rather than every two or three days, every five or six days.
“That may not seem like much, but it could be a significant amount in terms of helping us better characterize this virus and increase the immunity of our population.”
Professor Ferguson stated that lockdowns are difficult to predict and added that it is not possible to know the exact threat.
He stated that it was clear that consensus had been reached that it was highly probable that the NHS would be overwhelmed. However, the Government will have to make a decision on what to do.
He was asked if lockdowns were possible and he replied: “It definitely might be possible at this time.”
Professor Ferguson had earlier pointed out a South African lab-based study that suggested the Pfizer vaccine does not work as well against Omicron.
He stated that there was some preliminary evidence from Britain suggesting that mild diseases can be protected by just two doses.
“But, we believe that severe diseases protection is more likely to continue at the highest level. However, we do not have any data. It’s just an extension of past experience.
Professor also stated that it was possible for visitors from Scotland to Cop26, the Climate Change Conference last month, to have started seeding in Scotland. However, he noted this was speculation.
The announcement comes just as Sajid Javid, Health Secretary, has pulled out from a crucial broadcast interview after leaked footage showed Government aides laughing at a party last year.
ITV News released footage on Tuesday showing the Prime Minister’s former press secretary Allegra Straton laughing with her adviser Ed Oldfield about a fictional Downing Street party happening in December 2020.
According to Today, Mr Javid had been scheduled for Wednesday morning’s Today program. However, the footage was discovered and it was cancelled.
Omicron, a new South African study suggests that it may reduce the effectiveness and efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine. Experts however suggested that booster shots could be helpful.
This study has been published online and is not peer-reviewed. The results showed that Omicron variant antibodies were less effective in preventing cells from becoming infected by it than the other forms.
Experts said that the data is concerning but it does not cover T cell immunity. This immune system plays a significant role in long-term protection.
A lab study was conducted by researchers at Africa Health Research Institute, Durban to assess the impact of Pfizer’s vaccine on Omicron. It showed a reduction of 40 percent in neutralising antibodies after people had been given two doses.
Alex Sigal is a South African virologist who conducted the research. He said that while he believes there will be lots of infections, it’s not likely to lead to systems collapse.
“My guess it that it’ll under control.
Prof Sigal also tweeted last night: ‘Just be be clear on something…this was better than I expected of Omicron.’