Boris Johnson received a warning last night that his party could lose over 100 seats if he doesn’t get on top of the sleaze.
According to a major poll, Labour was six points better than the Tories. This is because voters are angry at their row over lobbying or Downing Street parties.
A constituency-by-constituency analysis found that five Cabinet ministers would lose their seats if an election were held now – among them the Prime Minister.
It reveals that older voters and those in rural areas – traditional Tory strongholds – are most likely to be concerned by recent lobbying and lockdown party allegations.
The poll of 10,000 people, carried out by Survation, puts Sir Keir Starmer’s party on 41 per cent of the vote, with the Conservatives on 35 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 9 per cent.
A constituency-by-constituency analysis found that five Cabinet ministers would lose their seats if an election were held now – among them the Prime Minister
This would see Labour win 309 seats – 11 short of a majority but a net gain of 107 when compared with their disastrous election night in 2019.
For a loss of 111, the Tories will win 255 seats. The SNP will likely return 54 seats and the Lib Dems nine, indicating that they won’t have much impact on Conservative constituencies despite their by-election success.
There are four Cabinet members in danger: Environment Secretary George Eustice and Simon Hart of Wales, Alister Jack from Scotland, Alok Sharma (president of the COP26 environment summit)
38 Degrees, an activist group, requested the analysis of this poll. The method used to produce predictions that were based on relatively small geographical areas.
In addition to voting intention, the survey asked the public to judge the Government’s behaviour using the seven ‘Nolan principles’ for standards in public office.
These include selflessness and integrity as well as openness, transparency, objectivity, objectivity, accountability for actions, honesty and leadership. All of these were scored low by the Government.
Professor Christopher Hanretty, of Royal Holloway University, analysed the results and said: ‘It’s older voters who are the most likely to say that the Government isn’t living up to the Nolan principles.
For a loss of 111, the Tories would win just 255 seats. In the SNP’s expected return of 54 seats, while in the Lib Dems’ slippage to nine seats. This indicates that they won’t have much impact on Conservative constituencies despite their by-election success.
This weekend Downing Street released photographs of Mr Johnson and wife Carrie enjoying Christmas at Chequers, the Prime Minister’s country retreat in Buckinghamshire
Both Mrs Johnson and Romy were seen making Zoom phone calls from their home, with Romy being held by Mrs Johnson on her lap. Romy’s name was shown with that of brother Wilf on a trendy £10 lightbox
‘This can be seen when comparing younger, urban areas with older rural areas. Constituencies in London for example are a lot less likely to express concern given the share of the vote Labour ordinarily receives there.’
The polling predicted that Labour would make major gains in the so-called ‘Red Wall’, overturning many of the seats won by Conservatives in 2019.
Of 40 key Red Wall seats held by Tories, only three (Dudley North, Morley & Outwood, and Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland) are projected to stay blue.
Promised victories had large margins, many seats polling above 50% for Labour.
Matthew McGregor, chief executive of 38 Degrees, said: ‘Anger over sleaze and the cost of living crisis is a collapse in support for the Conservatives, and will cost them their majority if things don’t change dramatically. Boris Johnson’s message from the poll was clear: Show voters respect, fix the cost-of-living crisis and clean up the sleaze.
‘Voters who supported the Conservatives in 2019 to get Brexit done are angry and turned off by the actions of the Government.’
Focaldata’s Sunday Times poll gave Labour an 8-point advantage over the Tories in a separate survey. It suggested that Labour would win 26 seats majority.
This weekend Downing Street released photographs of Mr Johnson and wife Carrie enjoying Christmas at Chequers, the Prime Minister’s country retreat in Buckinghamshire.
They were photographed making Zoom calls from their bedroom, Mrs Johnson holding Romy’s newborn on her lap and Mrs Johnson holding Romy. Romy’s name was shown with that of brother Wilf on a trendy £10 lightbox.