Official data shows that Covid Hospitalisations in London could be just one double away from exceeding Government thresholds for the introduction of lockdown restrictions throughout the country.
Ministers will be reviewing the Omicron outbreak admissions in London, and may decide to increase curbs.
Government sources say officials are considering a national two-week ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown after Christmas if London’s daily admissions breach 400 this week — which would signal ‘unsustainable’ pressure on the NHS.
London recorded 245 daily admissions on December 19 — the most recent date with data — which was double the figure on December 5. The current rate would mean that it will take less than two weeks for the number to surpass 400 if they continue at the same pace.
It was the epicenter of Omicron’s outbreak in the UK, and it happened just two weeks before super mutant varieties became prevalent. Experts are interpreting trends in the capital as an indication of what is to come for England.
Even with the increase in London hospital admissions, they are far below the 850 that reached their peak in the last winter. They also started this winter from a low base.
But there are fears that the sheer scale of infections that have already occurred in London may be ‘baked in’ and cause a big spike in the coming days. To cope with predicted increases in admissions, the NHS may consider setting up “field hospitals” in existing hospital parking lots.
Three weeks in to the latest Omicron infection, however, it appears that the capital’s Omicron cases have already stopped growing. According to insufficient data, the number of Omicron infections in capital cities has dropped to 26,000 after doubling in one week. In the past four days, their rate of growth has also fallen.
There are signs that people admitted to London with Covid may have milder illnesses than those who were admitted in Omicron Epicentre South Africa.
MailOnline has found that a quarter of all new admissions have tested positive for HIV after being admitted to hospital for an unknown reason. This is up from the 12 percent who were diagnosed before Omicron.
It is still unclear if the London trend will continue nationally. London has the lowest level of vaccination in the country, making it more vulnerable to severe infections.
London has a low rate of double vaccinations, with only 60% having been double-vaccinated compared to the 82% national average. Only 33% have been given boosters in London, while 52% of UK citizens are eligible.
Doctors today in London claimed that nearly nine-tenths of patients in ICU wards have not been vaccinated. There are fears this could lead to restrictions across the nation.
NHS England figures show that 1 904 patients were admitted to London’s Covid hospital during the week ending December 21. This is the highest level since March 2, and an increase of 41% from the previous week.
It is only half of what was seen at the peak in January when there were 8000 Covid inpatients. Although this is a leading indicator, ICU rates remain flat at around 205.
Boris Johnson put the brakes on Christmas lockdown as scientists found that Omicron’s strain was likely to be more milder than Delta.
Although the PM said last night that Christmas can be carried out ‘cautiously’ but cautioned that the government was monitoring the spread hour-by-hour and would be able to respond if required after December 25th,
The UK Health Security Agency is claiming that Omicron infection tends to be less severe. This has raised hope that Omicron cases and hospitalizations will be lower than previously thought.
According to reports, ministers monitor hospitalization numbers in London. If daily figures exceed 400, a lockdown of two weeks will be put in place. London has an average of 217 admissions per day, according to the most recent daily data.
MailOnline’s analysis of UK Health Security Agency data (UKHSA), shows that Covid cases increased by two-thirds in every Omicron London borough last week, and tripled in seven.
Graph showing London’s Daily Covid Cases by Date Report. This graph shows that they were first high after Omicron’s appearance, but are now stable despite the fact that their numbers have been increasing by a third every day.
London Hospital Admissions are closely monitored for any signs of unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
COVID ADMISSIONS – London’s admission rate is currently around 217 per person per day, which is much lower than the January wave when more than 800 Covid patients came in per day
COVID PATIENTS. Figures from NHS England indicate that 1,904 Covid-infected London residents were hospitalized in London in the week to December 21. That is 41% more than the number seen a week before. This is still only a fraction of last January’s peak, which saw 8,000 Covid patients.
MECHANICAL VECTILATORS – 201 Covid Patients were yesterday on London’s mechanical ventilator beds, their levels hovering at around 200.
Scientists predicted that Omicron cases in the UK would increase at a slower rate than they are now. Experts fear the country may have reached its limit in testing and this could be limiting the availability of data.
Omicron has caused infections to skyrocket in the capital — with confirmed infections trebling in seven boroughs last week.
Early signs indicate that it is slowing down, according to Professor Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia. He told MailOnline yesterday that cases “look like they have peaked”.
Experts are not yet sure how many hospitalisations the capital’s case surge will cause — with questions remaining over the severity of the new variant and vaccine effectiveness against it.
Ministers stressed the urgent need to boost everyone’s immunity to stop a surge in admissions. Only 32 percent have yet applied for the first vaccine.
MailOnline’s analysis of Government Dashboard data shows that Covid cases increased by two-thirds in every Omicron London borough last week, and tripled in seven.
Barnet, the last area of the city to not see its cases rise by more than 100 percent in the week ending December 16th. The latest regional data are available.
The worst-hit borough in the city was Lambeth in south London, which saw confirmed infections nearly quadruple from 430 to 1,607 in seven days — an increase of 274 per cent.
Hackney, east London’s second-highest jump from 336 cases to 1233 (267%) was followed by Lambeth.
Wandsworth was next (250%), Tower Hamlets (236%), Islington (2266%), Camden (204%), Camden (204%), Hammersmith and Fulham (23%), and so on.
All ten of the worst-affected areas of the nation were affected by infection rates per 100,000 people in the week that ended December 17.
Lambeth had the highest rate with 2728.3, followed by Wandsworth (2643.9), Hackney and City of London (2352.3) and Southwark (2244.6).
However, hospitalisations still haven’t seen the same growth rates as in the capital. Due to the incubation time of the virus, it can often take at least one week for admissions to be completed.
Experts do not know the exact relationship admissions will follow case number. They will instead be using numbers in the capital to help decide whether restrictions should be imposed across the entire country.
Government sources told The i restrictions could be avoided entirely if admissions do not exceed 400 per day, although tougher guidance could still be introduced on December 27.
King’s College Hospital’s medical staff in southeast London said that while they hope they won’t see a surge of Christmas admissions, they feel the stress from staff shortages caused by Covid.
These staff are either positive, or isolating.
Chief executive at King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust Professor Clive Kay said that just 600 of the 14,000 staff are sick because of Covid-related absences. The trust includes King’s College Hospital and Princess Royal University Hospitals in Bromley as well as services at Beckenham Beacon, Queen Mary’s Hospital, and Orpington Hospital.
At the moment, almost 170 coronavirus cases are being treated by King’s College or the Princess Royal Hospital. That’s compared to the 60 that were seen at the end November.
A total number of 102 patients can be found in general care, 18 at King’s and 45 at Princess Royal. Three patients are critical care patients at Princess Royal.
The trust treated 776 Covid patients at its highest point during the second wave of January 2021.
Separate figures from NHS England show that 1,904 people were in hospital in London with Covid as of December 21 — the highest number since March 2 and up 41 per cent from a week earlier.
However, it’s still well below the second wave peak which had 7,917 people in hospital on January 18.
LAMBETH: The worst hit borough in the city was Lambeth in south London, which saw confirmed infections nearly quadruple from 430 to 1,607 in seven days — an increase of 274 per cent
HACKNEY AND CITY OF LONDON: After Lambeth, Hackney in east London had the highest jump in cases from 336 to 1,233 (267 per cent)
WANDSWORTH: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 250 per cent from 461 on December 9 to 1,613 on December 16
TOWER HAMLETS: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 236 per cent from 346 on December 9 to 1,161 on December 16
ISLINGTON: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 226 per cent from 291 on December 9 to 950 on December 16
CAMDEN: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 204 per cent from 258 on December 9 to 784 on December 16
HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 203 per cent from 236 on December 9 to 715 on December 16
HARINGEY: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 195 per cent from 302 on December 9 to 890 on December 16
LEWISHAM – Confirmed Covid Cases increased 19% from 383 cases on December 9, to 1112 on Dec 16,
WESTMINSTER: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 190 per cent from 266 on December 9 to 772 on December 16
SOUTHWARK: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 183 per cent from 467 on December 9 to 1,322 on December 16
KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 183 per cent from 153 on December 9 to 433 on December 16
BRENT: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 173 per cent from 258 on December 9 to 705 on December 16
MERTON: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 171 per cent from 240 on December 9 to 651 on December 16
RICHMOND UPON THAMES: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 164 per cent from 213 on December 9 to 562 on December 16
WALTHAM FOREST: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 161 per cent from 301 on December 9 to 785 on December 16
EALING: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 160 per cent from 300 on December 9 to 780 on December 16
GREENWICH: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 154 per cent from 338 on December 9 to 857 on December 16
BEXLEY: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 150 per cent from 255 on December 9 to 637 on December 16
CROYDON: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 145 per cent from 435 on December 9 to 1,067 on December 16
KINGSTON UPON THAMES: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 144 per cent from 194 on December 9 to 473 on December 16
HAVERING: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 141 per cent from 288 on December 9 to 695 on December 16
REDBRIDGE: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 140 per cent from 268 on December 9 to 644 on December 16
NEWHAM: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 138 per cent from 337 on December 9 to 802 on December 16
BROMLEY: Confirmed Covid cases increased by 138 per cent from 337 on December 9 to 802 on December 16
The 53-year-old consultant to King’s College’s Critical Care Unit said there is no increase in coronavirus inpatients despite the large number of Covid cases in the capital. He also stated that critical care patient numbers tend to go up after an increase in hospitalizations.
He said: ‘Our actual coronavirus numbers at the moment in critical care have been fairly steady… there’s lots of unknowns right now and that is generating quite a lot of anxiety because we are seeing such a massive rise in cases, all likely (due) to the Omicron variant.
“So, we’re bracing for significant impacts. Add to this staff sickness which is an indication of the high community prevalence at the moment.
He said 20 to 25 per cent of patients currently in critical care have Covid, while five per cent of critical care staff — double the usual amount — are off sick with Covid-related absences.
He stated that this presents additional difficulties for staff. “We must ask staff to fill in for shifts on short notice, and it’s very difficult.
“There are also times when staff is short of resources, which means that they have to be extra hard to support each other. While we do everything in our power to manage it, there are still significant obstacles.
Professor Kay stated that staff were not happy about the current staff situation. Many staff lost their Christmas last year, and this is going to happen again. However, the staff have been very professional.
“The King’s Hospital staff and all of the NHS and social services have done an outstanding job for the past two years, and they will continue doing so.”
Dr Laura Jane Smith (39), a consultant on respiratory in King’s Covid Wards said that the shortages and the “relentless nature” of Covid are weighing down medics.
She stated that there are many challenges facing us, including staff shortages. This has been an especially serious problem in the past week.
“The other challenge is that it’s still very difficult to work in PPE every day. Communication with seriously ill patients using the PPE can limit our ability to show empathy and care for those going through severe illnesses.
There are lots of reasons to feel hopeful and the world is certainly better now than it was last January.
“Currently, we have two Covid patient wards in the hospital. In January however, the whole hospital was taken over by us. It’s due to both the new drug treatments and the recent vaccination program.
Her explanation was that most coronavirus-infected patients are not vaccinated.
Some have been given one or multiple doses and others will need additional care. However, the vast majority of our patients aren’t vaccinated and are suffering from serious respiratory problems that require advanced medical care.
Professor Kay stated that the hospital has a good understanding of Covid and is prepared for surges.
He stated that the organization is being managed in a structured manner, taking decisions with a clear and methodical approach, and then responding to changing situations day-by-day.