Professor Ferguson of SAGE, who is pictured with his Imperial College London colleagues, found Omicron-positive patients have a 20 to 25% lower chance of being admitted than Delta catchers.
The first British real-world study of Professor Lockdown found that Omicron was up to 45% less likely than Delta to result in hospitalisation.
SAGE member Professor Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London found Omicron patients are between 20 and 25 per cent less likely to be admitted than those who catch Delta.
The real-world analysis, of more than 3,291 people between December 1 and 14, found the risk of staying overnight was even lower, at between 40 to 45 per cent.
Professor Ferguson — who just last week warned there could be up to 5,000 daily Omicron deaths in the UK — said the Omicron wave will be ‘nothing like what we seen last year, with ICUs overflowing with patients’.
The findings are believed to have been the reason Boris Johnson pumped the brakes on tougher Christmas restrictions despite case numbers rising to record levels — with 106,122 positive tests recorded today.
According to the latest research, even if a person has not had Covid or immunity there is a 10% lower chance of them being admitted with Omicron than they are with Delta.
The chance of being hospitalized for someone who has recently been infected was reduced by 41% in both unvaccinated persons and vaccinated individuals.
The finding may explain why South Africa — where up to 7o per cent of people have immunity from prior infection but only a quarter are jabbed — is seeing daily hospitalisations stall at less than 400.
Professor Ferguson stated that: “You can see that in London we’re getting more people hospitalized. It won’t be for long and it is unlikely that they will have to admit people with severe illnesses.
‘And that’s not a reflection of Omicron versus Delta — that was already true for Delta infections, that they’re less severe than they were last year because there’s a lot of immunity in the population.
“The problem is that even if they’re enough, it poses quite a challenge for the NHS. This is not the same situation as last year, when there were too many ventilator beds and intensive care units.
Although the notoriously dark-eyed expert said he expects the Omicron wave will be less severe, with more patients being discharged from hospital faster and fewer Covid deaths than usual, he warned that there may still be considerable pressure on the NHS.
He cautioned that infection rates could be 40 percent higher in the future than with Delta, which would negate any improvement.
This data was just seconds after Omicron’s similar Scottish study found that the likelihood of getting hospitalized with Omicron was 65% lower than Delta.
Researchers at the University of Edinburgh said Omicron is as serious as Delta. They would have treated around 47 patients in Scotland’s hospital, but so far only 15.
It comes as Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford today announced new Covid restrictions will return on Boxing Day, with large New Year’s Eve parties banned and the rule of six re-imposed on pubs and restaurants.
In most places, the two-metre social distancing system will still be in place. Hospitality venues will only offer table service and guests will need to use face masks if they are not seated.
Scotland also issued stricter guidelines for the Christmas period, but the Prime Minister said that there was not enough evidence to support tougher restrictions.
Last night, the PM stated that Christmas could be made ‘cautiously’. However, he warned that while the government is monitoring the spread of mutant strains hourly and is ready to take action after December 25, if needed.
Omicron was found to be 10 percent less likely than Delta to result in hospitalization in those who were not vaccinated against it or have been infected by Covid before. Hospitalisation is up to 20 per cent less likely in the general population — including those who have been infected or vaccinated — and 45 per cent less likely for at least a night
University of Edinburgh researchers have found that Omicron has a lower rate of Omicron-related hospitalizations than Delta. Graph: Omicron and Delta hospitalization rates in Scotland.
Ministers, according to some reports are monitoring hospitalisation levels in London. A two-week lockdown is being imposed on daily counts exceeding 400. London averages 217 admissions daily as of December 19, according to latest figures.
MailOnline Analysis of UK Health Security Agency’s (UKHSA), data shows Covid case doubled in 32 Omicron London boroughs and tripled last week in seven
Experts stated that Omicron is significantly more likely in people with previous infections than those who do not have an infection.
Professor James Naismith from the University of Oxford is a structural biologist. He said that Omicron can be milder when there has been a previous infection.
“However, Omicron severity isn’t lower than Delta in double-vaccinated subjects, suggesting that Omicron isn’t milder.
“This surprise finding, however, is supported by solid data. No research has been done on whether boosting is beneficial.
According to the study, Omicron poses the same danger as EAVE II. Omicron will not cause a mild infection and will infect more people.
“Decreasing spread to allow time for population coverage with booster is the best strategy.”
Scientists from the Scotland-wide Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance Of Covid reported that Omicron was associated with a reduction of two-thirds in hospitalization rates compared to the dominant strain.
The national Covid incident director at Public Health Scotland Dr Jim McMenamin called the findings “qualified good news” but stressed that we shouldn’t be too optimistic.
He stated that Omicron’s potential serious effects on the population should not be undervalued.
“But a lower proportion of the cases might eventually require treatment could still indicate a significant number of people with severe Covid infections, which may lead to hospitalisation.”
The paper’s authors have yet to peer review it. They stated that if Omicron was like the Delta version in Scotland, they would have treated around 47 patients with the virus. However, as of now, only 15.
Professor Mark Woolhouse of University of Edinburgh stated that the data was highly caveated for the time. This data was based only on small numbers of cases. We don’t know much about the most vulnerable, those over 65.
Professor Penny Ward, visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at King’s College London, said: ‘On a day when the UK has registered its largest ever number of daily confirmed COVID infections, some good news has emerged from Scotland and from Imperial College.
“Both studies indicate that the infection caused by the Omicron variant is less serious than the Delta variant. This was based on comparing hospital admissions.
The studies at this stage are based on a comparison of two follow-up periods. Because of the earlier appearance of the variant, there is some uncertainty regarding the likelihood of severe outcomes in subjects with the variant. However, patients that require hospital admission will be able to see the results of both studies.
Elle continued, “But, based upon this preliminary data, the decision not to impose greater restrictions social mixing than what is currently advised under Plan B may be more reasonable than others have suggested.”
“This does not diminish the remarkable spread of the variant throughout the population. The fact that even a tiny proportion of those who need hospital care for Covid could become very large indeed, if the rate of community attacks continues to rise, with all the implications for overstretching an already stretched NHS.
“It’s important to all of us take reasonable care, get tested, and have our boosters given as soon as we can. We might all be able to expect a better new year in 2022 if we do these things.