Covid cases are now rising in every age group except young children in Omicron-hotspot London, according to official figures that lay bare the threat the NHS faces in the coming weeks.
Super-mutant mutations are already controlling the capital. Tens of thousands of employees staying home to prevent being isolated over Christmas has resulted in the city of 10million becoming a prisoner of its own devices.
According to data from the Department of Health, London now has the same number of cases as January last year. London was hit hard by the Alpha variant of HIV and placed under more severe measures than other parts of the country.
London’s crisis spiraling was originally driven by teens and adults aged 20-34, 40 and 45 who saw an increase in cases just two weeks prior to the discovery of Omicron, which was a highly infectious strain. MailOnline analysis shows that infections began to increase in over-60s within days of Omicron being confirmed in Britain.
Experts admit that the capital’s crisis is inevitable because of the virus running out of space. People heed dire warnings by Boris Johnson, Professor Chris Whitty and their plea for people to prioritize the most important social events over the next days.
They also said that the sudden spike in the number of cases in young adults will not necessarily be seen in the over-60s who are the most susceptible to the disease. Prof. Paul Hunter from the University of East Anglia is an expert in infectious diseases. He said that this may be because older age groups are less social.
He also said Britain’s booster vaccine drive — which prioritised older adults — should help to thwart the virus’s spread, even though three jabs won’t protect thousands from catching the virus and getting ill.
Scientists hope it will mean that the NHS won’t be under immense pressure due to the sudden increase in the number of cases. The data also suggests that two vaccines may still be effective at reducing the severity of serious illness. Chris Whitty, a Chris Whitty spokesperson today suggested that Omicron and Delta could benefit from three vaccinations.
Official data indicates that hospitalisations are increasing faster in the capital than elsewhere in the country. This virus is now being transmitted to an average of 153 persons per day. That’s a mere eighth the number that was reported at the peak last January, when 800 people were infected.
Since the latest Government statistics on infection rates for each age group do not go up past December 10, it is possible that London’s actual trajectory will change even more.
The same trend has not been seen in other parts of England where Omicron is still ravaging. Because the capital was an international center and has lower vaccination rates, experts believe it’s more susceptible to the virus.
This graph displays the infected rate for different age groups as compared with the week before. The graph shows that the number of cases is more than doubled week-on-week for adults aged 20 and over, as well as rising among all age groups.
This graph displays the week-on-week change in Covid infections rates in England. The graph shows that national cases are also rising among adults aged 20 and older, with other groups beginning to see an increase.
This graphic shows London’s infected rate for under-60s and over-60s. This graph shows that, while under-60s have more cases than over-60s, the rate is increasing for older people. Experts believe the boosters can stop the rise but Professor Chris Whitty indicated today that these may increase quickly along with hospitalisations over the next days.
This is a graph showing Covid hospitalisations within London. After Omicron’s cases sent spiralling, they are up by 40% week-on-week.
Although the number of covid deaths in capital is still low, this indicator may be skewed by the length of time it takes for someone to become seriously ill and need hospitalisation.
This map illustrates the percentage of Covid cases that are triggered by Omicron in England’s different regions. The variant is dominant in London where it’s believed that 60 percent of the cases have been triggered.
This is the total number of Omicron-related cases in the UK. The numbers are broken down by countries.
According to Department of Health Statistics, the rate of infection in people aged between 20 and 24 in capital increased by 22% in one week. It rose from 420.7 cases per 100,000 persons to 972.4. The infection rate for people in their early 20s has gone up from 372.3 to 865.8.
The virus is more common in older adults, who have seen their rates rise almost 40% from 115.7 to 158.1.
Only five-to-14-year olds show signs of a decline in cases, with their weekly drop of about five percentage points.
A booster has been given to 80 per cent over-60s.
Although it is not yet possible to predict how effective two boosters or doses of Omicron will prevent hospitalization or death, early evidence from the UK indicates that two jabs are significantly less likely.
South African officials claim that two doses Pfizer’s jab protects against serious illness by providing more than 70% protection, even when there is waning immunity.
The data regarding boosters is likely to take longer as South Africa is still not rolling them out. UK scientists also believe they require 250 Omicron patients at the hospital in order for vaccine efficacy estimations.
Although there is currently just 15 cases of the mutant strain at UK hospitals, the actual number could be much higher because it takes so long to analyze positive variants.
Chief medical officer of the UK Health Security Agency Dr. Hopkins stated that the week between Christmas, new year, and January will be the first time we have reliable information.
Based on the UKHA’s 600 first-degree infections, last week’s UKHA estimate that boosters provide 70% protection against Omicron disease symptoms.
Londoners also mix less with others after scrapping Christmas party plans, working from home again and wearing masks once more in public.
Covid cases in the US are increasing rapidly among young adults, with 50 percent of them growing in just a few weeks. The numbers are starting to rise in the older age brackets.
Professor Chris Whitty today warned that Omicron would paralyse Britain, with 443,000 cases per day expected by Christmas Eve. This will leave three percent of the nation in isolation.
The capital’s hospitalisations are increasing by 38% week-on-week while they rise by 10% in England.
Deaths remain flat, but they are not a good indicator of how quickly someone can get sick with the virus.
Prof Hunter is an expert in infectious diseases and said England, as well as the capital, would likely see cases spike before the New Years because the epidemics are so rapid.
He told MailOnline: ‘If it carries on at the rate it’s going then by the end of the year — and given also that we only detect about 40 per cent of infections — we would have pretty much all of the UK population being infected. It is impossible.
Prof. Tim Spector is a leading epidemiologist who predicted that London cases will slow down before the new year. His prediction was that London’s cases would slow in the new year as more people make changes to their behavior like cancelling parties, wearing facemasks again and working remotely.
This is in line with separate data from the Covid symptom survey, which involved almost one million Britons. It showed that cases are increasing rapidly among those aged 19-35 but not as high in older people.
Yesterday’s UK Covid case record was set by Omicron in the UK. It is responsible for more than 34% of Covid cases across England, as well as nearly half of London, in the past 24 hours.
Professor Hunter told MailOnline it was likely the country would see a ‘very short, sharp peak’ in infections — likening it to a Sombrero.
It is expected that there will be an increase in hospitalisations. However, it is unlikely these numbers will surpass those of last winter. According to SAGE modeling, they may reach 2,000 per day, which is about half of the peak in January.
Professor Spector claimed that the New Year could see cases reach a high point ‘higher even than any we’ve seen’.
He also said that behaviour change in London would slow down the spread of the disease.
He added: “It is my hope that other countries are doing the same thing to avoid large-scale outbreaks in London, particularly in the big cities.”
Covid cases in England have been increasing rapidly in the 20s and 30s. Some cases for older people are beginning to rise.
However, the over-60s are trending downwards. The latest infection rate is at 129.9, down from 136.9 per 100,000 people one week ago.
Dr. Hunter explained that the fastest rate of infection was among those in their 20s. This is because they are more likely to be socially connected and were only given boosters.
He stated, “If it is spreading quickly in this age group.” [adults in their 20s]It doesn’t necessarily mean that it will spread at the same rate as other age groups.
“This may be partly due to the fact that older people don’t get as involved in socializing, or because they have already received high levels of boosters.
London hospitalisations are on the rise by 38% in an average week. There have been 153 Covid patients admitted every day, an increase of 111 days ago.
They have risen by 9 percent in England, with 691 Covid patients admitted daily on average.
Modelling projects that this will rise to approximately 2,000 daily despite the booster campaign before plummeting after the current wave recedes.
The average infection rate in Gauteng, South Africa’s epicenter, has risen slightly since the variant was discovered a month ago. However hospitalisations remain high.
South Africa didn’t introduce any new restrictions but it did increase its vaccination program, which previously had reached just 25% of adults. In most areas, it already has face masks.
However, experts caution that it can be difficult to draw a comparison because South Africa’s population is far younger than the UK.
ZOE Covid symptoms study today estimated that Omicron cases increased by four percent last week, despite Omicron spreading rapidly. There are currently 83,658 Omicron-infected people.
Omicron led to the largest increase in Omicron cases in London and other infections started rising in other regions.
Yesterday, Professor Spector stated that most of the people suffering from a cold or flu in London are probably infected by Omicron.
His symptoms were not different from Delta. People who get it will experience headaches, nausea, fatigue and sore throats.
Last night, Professor Whitty spoke in a dark press conference warning that Omicron hospitalisations will rise after records were broken.
He said: ‘I think that what most people are doing is – and I would think this seems very sensible – is prioritising the social interactions that really matter to them and, to project those ones, de-prioritising ones that matter much less to them.’
Johnson told them to stop celebrating Christmas and to ‘think carefully’ about what they were doing before getting out.