Brendan Wren, a professor of vaccinology in the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is Brendan Wren
When an expert from the UK Health Security Agency warns that a new variant of the Covid virus is ‘the worst we have seen so far’ and another scientist calls it ‘horrific’, you can forgive people for starting to panic all over again.
And, at first glance, there is certainly good reason to pay attention to B.1.1.529 – the new variant identified in southern Africa.
This strain has fifty mutations, compared with the one that was first discovered in Wuhan 2 years ago. It’s therefore very different to the original virus.
It has also been found to have ten mutations in the virus that causes infection of human cells. This is in contrast with the two that were present in the Delta strain that was sweeping the globe this year.
The most crucial questions to ask are, “Is this virus more transmittable, more virulent, and is our vaccine less effective against it?”
These are the areas where we remain largely unaware. That’s why it’s prudent for the time being to try to keep the variant out of this country for as long as possible by stopping flights here from affected nations – though we need to be realistic about any ability to do this in the long term.
But here’s the key point – viruses mutate all the time. And when they do, they don’t always result in more virulent or more worrying strains. Actually, the exact opposite is true. Over time, pathogens tend to become less deadly because a virus that kills its host quickly spreads less than one that doesn’t.
How about vaccines? There have been worried claims that the variant will somehow be ‘resistant’ to the growing arsenal of jabs – let alone all the other drugs and treatments – that the world’s medical community has developed to fight Covid.
These claims could be true. Who knows. Even though our current vaccines do not work as well against B.1.1.529 it does not necessarily mean we will return to early 2020.
Our vaccines are effective against every variant of the virus. These vaccines were based on the Wuhan strain’s DNA and have been very successful.
What’s more, Britain is the world leader on genome sequencing. Current UK genome sequencing runs more than 50,000 Covid strains per week. It allows us to stay ahead of any new variants by having an early warning system and a one-step ahead.
This is how we identified the Alpha (or Kent) variant – it probably arose abroad but our modelling here allowed us to spot it before anyone else.
There are many companies around the globe that develop new vaccine technology. Scientists can easily modify vaccines to meet new variants – within days if necessary.
If we do in fact need a ‘new’ vaccine to fight this latest variant, it will be a case of tweaking an existing one.
The most crucial questions to ask are, “Is this virus more transmittable, more virulent, and is our vaccine less effective against it?”
The vaccine team at Oxford University – and other scientists around the world – are already looking at the genome sequences of all the virus’s variants, including B.1.1.529.
In the arms race against the virus, humanity is winning – and we are well-prepared. It is possible that another version of this virus may emerge. It is important to remain calm, and to not react too much.
Brendan Wren, a professor of vaccinology in the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is Brendan.