Professor Lockdown said that the 10-day quarantine must be cut down to seven days for people who are made positive to get out of jail.
Speaking on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme, Neil Ferguson said: ‘It’s always a trade off between effectiveness and people’s adherence.
It could also be used in conjunction with lateral flow tests, which would test negative for releases. This was done some months back.
‘All the modelling and analysis would suggest if it’s coupled with lateral flow testing it’s not going to reduce the effectiveness of the measures that much.
‘If it’s a change from 10 days to 7 days with no testing then you have a slightly bigger impact on the effectiveness of the measures.’
Professor Ferguson’s comment come as health experts and business chiefs warned the ten-day rule was ‘lockdown by stealth’ – keeping people at home even when their symptoms and infectiousness had eased.
According to leading doctors, quarantine might be lifted early for patients who have tested negative at least twice in a week.
Daily virus cases hit a record 93,000 on Thursday and are expected to go much higher – raising fears that self-isolation will cause chaos to schools, hospitals and the economy.
It is not yet known whether Omicron – the Covid variant driving the surge – is milder. However, victims recover faster and may become less infectious just three to five days after a positive test, according to evidence from South Africa.
‘People are most infectious in the first five days, after which time infectiousness falls,’ said Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.
‘Some people are no longer infectious after three days and it makes no sense to keep them locked up.
‘Isolating people for ten days when they are no longer infectious will harm the economy and leave vital public services, such as the NHS, short-staffed.
‘People could perhaps take a daily lateral flow test and be allowed to leave quarantine if they test negative for two days in a row.’
Dr Bharat Pankhania, a lecturer at the University of Exeter medical school, added: ‘Safely reducing the quarantine period from ten days could increase compliance, improve staffing in healthcare and benefit the economy.
‘Confirmed cases may take a daily lateral flow test and be allowed to leave after having three negatives in a row, or take one PCR after five days.’
They called at:
- On Thursday, the NHS announced that it had given a record number of booster shots to 861 306 patients.
- Downing Street had announced the Cobra meeting. This triggered speculation about more restrictions for Christmas.
- Welsh Government announced they will close nightclubs beginning December 27th and reinstate two-metre social ditancing in offices.
- Ireland will impose a curfew of 8pm for all hospitality venues
- Neil Ferguson is the Imperial College London Covid expert on modelling. Omicron may have caused up to 5K deaths per day in this winter, according to Neil Ferguson.
- However, the most recent official statistics show that only 65 people are admitted to hospital.
- New data shows that Omicron South Africa has been used by fewer patients than previously thought, in spite of record numbers.
- California Governor Rishi Sunak returned from California to meet with hotel bosses about financial assistance.
- This weekend’s jab centre will include 3000 locations including racecourses, christmas markets and football stadiums.
- Today’s shortage of vaccines caused pharmacies to cancel their booster appointments.
- Residents must be allowed to visit their relatives during Christmas in care homes, it was warned.
- Omicron case estimates that Omicron incidences were increasing by doubling each day have been lowered due to people being more careful
Professor Lockdown stated that the 10-day quarantine period should be reduced to seven days, if individuals are required to take a negative test before being released.
The data suggests that approximately 98% of viruses are transmitted before the person becomes ill or within 5 days.
A shopping street in Gloucester. A shopping street in Gloucester.
Photo of Gloucester Quays today To avoid Covid, many people decide to steer clear of restaurants and pubs in the run-up to Christmas.
Manchester saw slightly more shoppers today, with many people wearing face masks.
A busy outdoor market in Bristol. High street footfall could lead to a decline in business confidence, according to some leaders.
Boris Johnson today was urged to abandon the 10-day quarantine period for all positive cases and to adopt a release and test program that would stop Omicron from “disabling everyone”.
Can you really cut down the 10 day quarantine safely?
What is the maximum time people can be infected?
Some academics argue that Britain’s Covid could have its self-isolation sentence reduced to five days.
The data suggests that approximately 98% of viruses are transmitted before symptoms appear or within five days.
The University of St Andrews’ infectious disease expert Dr Muge Cervik said that most cases are transmitted very quickly.
“Viral load spikes quickly so that people become highly infected within the first few days.
For how long is Covid testing positive?
These tests are best used to identify people with the highest infectiousness. They can be done in as short as fifteen minutes.
The antigens are viral proteins found in nasal and throat samples.
However, the kits have a lower sensitivity than gold-standardPCRs. These PCRs send swabs to labs to analyse for viruses.
They are more likely to not spot an infected person, and less likely they will give positive results when the viral load is lower.
However, PCRs are sensitive to viral fragments and may detect them even after symptoms have resolved.
Positive PCR results do not automatically mean that someone has remained contagious.
Fire Brigade Union claimed that Covid cases in London have been “skyrocketing” over the past week. They claim almost 10% of all operational firefighters are either positive for the disease or self-isolating.
In the meantime, many restaurants and bars have been closed due to lack of business or staffing.
Self-isolation – from the point of infection or a positive test – was initially one week until it was extended to ten days in July 2020.
Sir Iain Duncan Smith, a former Tory party leader, said the lower figure could be reinstated: ‘This variant is not as fierce, and we have vaccines in play, so there is a very good argument for shortening the time that people have to self-isolate for.’
Des Gunewardena, chief executive of D&D London restaurant group, said: ‘The period of isolation should certainly be reviewed in the context of Omicron causing a milder and more short-lived illness than Delta.’
Jonathan Neame of Shepherd Neame, Britain’s oldest brewer, said: ‘Once we are past Christmas, and assuming no material change in deaths and hospitalisations, I would call for all restrictions to be lifted and encourage people to get boosted if they have not already. Quarantine should be cut or removed altogether.’
On any given day, around 12,000 NHS staff were sick or wasolating due to Covid. More than 20% of primary school pupils tested positive.
Doctors and nurses had to avoid wards for 10 days for anyone who was infected by the virus.
The rules were different from those issued in August for the rest the country. This meant double-jabbed persons did not need self-quarantine when someone in their home contracted the disease. Officials wanted hospital patients to be protected.
Yesterday’s updated guidance to NHS leaders saw the household rule being quietly removed. As long as workers have received two vaccines, they should be able to return home as soon as their PCR tests are negative. The workers should then perform daily lateral flow checks before they return for work.
It comes amid fears the NHS will be crippled by the incoming Omicron wave, with Government advisers warning of upwards of 4,000 daily hospitalisations — mirroring levels seen virus earlier this year when the health service was ravaged by Britain’s second wave.
Nicola Sturgeon, at a press conference today, warned that essential services may face threat from the increasing number of workers and suggested additional restrictions to prevent this.
An analysis of official figures suggests Britain could reach up to 460,000 daily cases by Christmas Eve — forcing 2million people into isolation — if Omicron infections continue to increase as quickly as some scientists expect.
These huge numbers can partially paralyse the nation, disrupting businesses and threatening services such as the NHS and police.
A public health specialist and business leader shared their thoughts yesterday about how staffing problems could be alleviated by reviewing the existing rules, which require anyone who is positive for Covid isolation for at least 10 days.
Britain’s Covid cases rose to new heights for the third consecutive day, with 93,000 patients diagnosed within 24 hours.
Official data shows that covid hospital admissions in Britain’s Omicron hotspot London have increased by over a third within a week.
MailOnline was asked by Professor Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia about whether the 10-day period of isolation should be removed and instead changed to a “test and release” scheme.
“The main concern, aside from rising hospitalisations and cases, is that we might end up with too many people isolated at once. This could cause serious staffing issues for vital services.”
He recommended reducing the time of mandatory isolation to just five days, and then requiring that people do daily lateral flow.
“The majority of people do not become infected after 10 days. However, they are usually overinfected by day 5.
The spread of ‘Omicron has reached such a large extent that we have no control over it, however it is vital we continue to maintain society.
“Anything that minimizes harm to society or the economy and doesn’t put infected people in situations where it is possible for them to infect further people is a plus.
Luke Johnson, serial entrepreneur and Chairman of The Bread Factory said that many businesses he had been in contact with contained more than 10% of their employees in isolation.
MailOnline reported that he said, “This means that the NHS and economy are at risk of grinding to a standstill very soon,” he stated. “The majority of the people who are isolating themselves don’t feel sick, and almost all those with symptoms describe it as a common cold.
Ten days alone is way too long. These tests have flaws and the spread of asymptomatic diseases is not proven.
He said, “We are in serious danger of disabling all – transport and supermarkets, food supply, hospital, etc., if we continue with the 10-day rules for people who have tested positive or been in touch with them.”
“We must reduce isolation time and permit release after a negative test is done. All isolation rules should also be terminated if Omicron becomes milder.
Today, ‘California Chancellor’ Rishi Sunak has been pictured arriving back in the UK for crunch talks with furious hospitality bosses struggling with plummeting demand due to the Omicron mutant strain.
Sunak, who was visiting the US to meet top tech executives on a long-planned’ Government trip, has come under fire for his timing. A senior British executive said that he was consumed with ‘organic kale’ smoothies.
Photos taken at town centre locations last night and today show that people continue to avoid them during peak times for business, despite mounting concerns about the Omicron variant.
Meanwhile, the congestion level reported by TomTom in London at 8am was 40 per cent – the lowest level all week.
Today’s traffic levels were 33% in Birmingham, 36% in Manchester, 40% in Liverpool, 34% in Sheffield, 46% in Leeds, 28% in Newcastle, and 33% in Manchester.
Yesterday, Mr Sunak met with hospitality executives via Zoom. However, he had to cancel one roundtable event due to a call scheduled with US healthcare leaders.
Following the spreading of the variant and Covid’s advice to be more cautious before Christmas, booking cancellations have been on the rise. Bosses now demand that the government provide fresh financial support. Industry leaders expect the final total to hit £4billion of lost takings.
CNN was informed by Mr Sunak that he held in-person discussions today, despite cutting short his visit. He said, “I am aware that this is an alarming time for all business leaders in the country.”
“I have been in contact with business leaders from the industry and that’s why I have curtailed my travel and will leave earlier tonight.
The Chancellor insisted ministers were not telling people to cancel their Christmas events, adding: ‘The situation is very different to what we’ve done and encountered before.
“We don’t tell people to cancel anything, we’re still open for business.”
After the widespread spread of this variant and Covid’s latest advice to be careful ahead of Christmas, the hospitality industry is asking the Government for financial assistance.
Bosses expect the final total to hit £4billion of lost takings.
But Mr Sunak insisted ministers were already helping, telling the BBC: ‘Until spring next year most businesses are only paying a quarter of their business rates bill, they are benefitting from a reduced rate of VAT all the way through to next spring, and thirdly there is about a quarter of a billion pounds of cash sitting with local authorities to support those businesses.’