Official figures show that the proportion of Covid patients who need to be connected to ventilators in London have dropped by half since Omicron was launched.
NHS England stats show that 16% of hospitalized patients needed mechanical ventilation late November while the Delta variant was dominant. This dropped to six percent a month later after Omicron replaced it.
Experts today praised the results as further evidence that the highly-infectious variant can cause milder illness than its counterparts.
The announcement comes at the same time that a senior NHS manager said today that there may have been ‘early indicators’ that Covid hospitalizations in London might now be peaking and that hospitals would still face an influx of elderly patients.
Chris Hopson (chief executive at NHS Providers) stated that although hospitalizations rose initially by 9 to 15% day-on–day, in the last 2 days, they only increased by 1 to 2 percent.
Sky News was informed by him that this suggests that hospital visits may have reached a peak and are beginning to slow down. It’s good news if that’s the case. But that’s not a huge possibility.
Two separate promising numbers suggest that the capital’s Covid crisis might finally be cooling. Although infection rates haven’t surpassed the landmark 27,799 mark for the city, they are falling in most of the boroughs each week.
The true status of London is distorted by the fact that testing rates fell over Christmas. Infections have also started to “leak” into over-60s. This suggests that NHS hospitals may be under more pressure as they battle a growing staff shortage.
This graph illustrates the percentage of Covid patients who needed ventilators during Delta’s dominance (November), and when Omicron gained control (late December). This graph shows that the percentage has dropped to half, which is yet another indication of milder disease.
This graph shows how the Covid rates in London’s boroughs have changed over the past week, from December 28th to December 28th. The latest data is available. The wave seems to be slowing across most of the capital
LONDON COVID PATIENTS – The figure above depicts the Covid patient population in London’s hospitals during the past year. They were rising at up to 15% per day but are currently increasing by 1 to 2 percent
LONDON COVID PATENTS: This shows the Covid patient population in London’s hospitals during the past year. They were rising at up to 15% per day but are currently increasing by 1 to 2 percent
LONDON – PATIENTS ON VECTILATORS: This graphic shows the proportion of Covid patients who have needed ventilators in London hospitals during the last one year. These numbers are not increasing rapidly, despite an increase in hospital admissions.
LONDON, COVID CASES: This chart shows Covid cases in London. Some people believe they may be slowing down, although it’s not clear if this is because of the holiday season.
LONDON, COVID CASES BY AGES GROUP: This graph displays the Covid infection rates among over-60s (dark) and under-60s. The graph shows an increase in cases among older people.
LONDON, COVID DATES: This graph displays the London Covid Deaths. Although they haven’t increased rapidly, these are still a poor indicator due to the length of time it takes for someone with the virus (or anyone else) to get seriously ill.
LONDON, TEST POITIVITY: The Covid positive status in London is shown above. It is clear that the rate among PCRs rose in December before capital cases began to plateau.
According to official figures, there were 989 Covid victims in London’s wards when Omicron was detected for the first time. Since then, this number has increased to 3,744 by January 2, an increase in 27%.
This figure represents a small fraction of the more than 7,000 patients who were seen in the first wave of January.
The number of Covid patients who require ventilators has also increased, though at a slower rate.
The November 27th, 2017 numbers showed that there were 169 seriously ill patients who required ventilation. That’s a 46% increase.
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious diseases expert at the University of East Anglia, told The Telegraph: ‘The lower rate of mechanical ventilation bed occupancy seems to be consistent across multiple European countries.
“Data from South Africa also showed that Omicron patients were less likely to die or be admitted to ITU (intensive) care.
“In terms of NHS pressure, patients in ITU beds take up much more nursing and medical time than those on open wards. The fact that MVB (mechanically ventilator beds), occupancy is still low is a good sign.
This is amidst promising indications that Covid Hospitalisations in the Capital may be at their peak.
Official data show an increase in the number of Covid patients at capital wards. It jumped from 2,640 and 3,024 in one day.
Hopson said that the latest two-day increase in patients with the virus was just one to two percent. Hopson called this a possible “light at the end” of the tunnel.
End of December saw 3,636 Covid-injured patients admitted to hospitals. Comparatively, this compares with 3,666 patients in hospitals on January 1st, up one percent per day and 3,744 on Jan 2nd by two percentage points per day.
Hopson stated that he saw a nine percent, fifteen per cent and nine per cent increase in Covid patient numbers coming to hospitals each day on December 27, 28, 29.
“But we’ve only seen an increase of just one and two percentage points in the last days.”
The doctor said that hospitals are not seeing a lot of older, seriously ill patients and there is hope for the future.
He said that New Year’s Eve impact and the return of children to school have not been recorded in the official data and could cause hospitalisations to rise further.
South African medical personnel on the frontlines have said for months Omicron patients seemed to experience less severe disease than Delta.
There is now hope that this pandemic will end, as there has been a lot of tangible evidence.
Independent Government statistics reveal that Covid cases declined in 20 of London’s 32 boroughs between December 28 and December 28, according to the most current available data.
The sharpest declines were seen in Wandsworth — which previously had the second-highest infection rate in the country (down 43 per cent in a week). Hackney was next, at 42%, followed by Lambeth (at 40%).
The other side of the scale saw infections rise by 25% in Hillingdon and increase by 21% and 11% respectively in Harrow over Christmas.
Broken down by age, the under-60s experienced a decline in cases during week ending December 28, when they fell from 2,279 to 1,854. They have increased from 701 cases per 100,000 to 1,051 among over-60s.
But case figures are heavily skewed by testing levels — which plummetted over the same time-frame, according to the UK Health Security Agency.
Nadhim Zahawi, a former minister of vaccines, stated today that there is currently “nothing” in data suggesting any additional restrictions.
He added, however: ‘We have to be careful with that because obviously if we see more leakage of infections in the over-50s — because most of the surge in infections from Omicron has been in the under-50s — it is more likely that those people end up with severe infection and hospitalisation.’
It comes as hospitals in Lincolnshire declared a staffing emergency amid a surge in absences which has prompted ministers to draw up plans to recruit 20,000 reservists to help ease winter pressures.
United Lincolnshire Hospitals Bosses warned that because so many nurses and doctors were absent on shifts, patient care is ‘compromised.
It declared yesterday a “critical incident”, meaning that hospital leaders are asking for support from trusts nearby to manage the situation.
According to latest NHS workforce data, the trust which oversees four hospitals in the county saw 7.5% of 8,500 workers off sick on Boxing Day. This was compared with 68,000 nationwide.
However, leaked documents indicate that hospitals have seen a worsening staffing situation since the beginning of the year. On New Year’s Eve, the number jumped to 87,000. Overall, 110,000 employees — or one in ten — were off, including 50,000 suffering from Covid. According to Trusts, one-fourth of employees could be absent from the worst case scenario.
Boris Johnson, today pledged that he would’make certain that we look after the NHS in any way we can’. At a Buckinghamshire vaccine centre, Boris Johnson stated that they are looking at how to get people in the most vulnerable areas.
He sought to soothe fears today by saying that because the NHS is’very good at sending staff to the frontlines,’ Mr Zahawi could help the NHS get out of the current crisis.
He told BBC Breakfast: ‘They now have an infrastructure to do that. [The NHS]It is very adept at managing staff shortages. It’s something they’ve done for many years, even in the winter, when there have been big flu epidemics.