Sir Patrick Vallance is defending scientists accused of using scaremongering to justify Covid-19.
No10’s chief scientific advisor stated it wasn’t his job to propagate optimism about the virus but rather to present data to ministers.
Sir Patrick rebuked Tory MPs, commentators and others who had criticised the advice and modeling being given ministers by Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies(SAGE) and accused them of ignoring the evidence regarding the Omicron variant in order to suit their political agenda.
The Times quoted a scientist who said that ministers should ‘hear all information, no matter how uncomfortable or helpful’.
Sir Patrick Vallance railed against critics of scientists’ scaremongering regarding Covid-19. Ministers should ‘hear’ the uncomfortable and encouraging information.
Sir Patrick’s comments came amid increasing frustration among government science advisers, who think they are being forced into a political conversation about new Covid policies.
SAGE projections were criticized by a number of ministers In a worst case scenario, there would be 6,000 Covid-related deaths per day and 10,000 hospitalizations in this winter.
SAGE Experts urged The government will soon reintroduce more stringent measures, and warn that there might be up to 3,000 people per day who need a bed at a hospital in England if nothing is done.
MailOnline heard from Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader and said it was time for “scientists” to stop Project Fear. However, Smith insisted that no restrictions would be added.
Sir Patrick stated in The Times that “Those who wish to engage seriously in a discussion that affects all of us must consider all data, not just those that support an argument.” It is not science.
He also defends the SAGE publication of’reasonable worst cases scenarios’ that were attacked as scaremongering.
Boris Johnson (pictured above with Sir Patrick), decided to take a break from the Brits for a few more days during Christmas.
Sir Patrick was a well-known figure in the Pandemic thanks to his regular appearances at Downing St televised press briefings.
Ministers and cabinet must hear any information that is either encouraging or uncomfortable. The cabinet and ministers must consider it alongside all information used to inform policy decision making.
Sir Patrick also stated that part of the advice could contain a realistic worst-case scenario – information often overlooked. These are only a possibility: they could be a worst-case scenario, or one of the many possible outcomes.
Modelling by SAGE has been slammed as ‘fictitious’ after their worst-case scenario projected 6,000 daily Covid deaths and 10,000 hospitalisations this winter.
This weekend’s advice to ministers was published by the Government’s Scientific Advisors. They warned that there may be an astronomical number of casualties if more stringent measures are not taken.
SAGE’s modeling team from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine discovered that there were potentially 10,400 hospitals in England during the worst case scenario.
The Times’ former chief scientific advisor, Professor Sir Mark Walport said that Sir Patrick had the right to defend SAGE scientists who were subjected to ‘abuse from critics’.
According to him, most of the critics were based on ‘people seizing upon what they want was the case’ and not taking into consideration the uncertainties around Omicron.
Sir Charles Walker was a Tory senior backbencher who is an ardent opponent of lockdowns. He stated to the paper: “What has undermined science and people’s faith in scientists have been the aggressive use ultra-worst scenario modeling.
“There are many highly respected scientists that have been intentionally marginalised and who can still engage in informed discussions with Sir Patrick and other people if given the opportunity.
“There should be an opportunity for growth and challenge.”
It comes as Boris Johnson decided to leave Britons in peace for a few days over Christmas, exhorting them ‘to take extra care to protect yourselves and your families’ during festive gatherings.
Ministers find themselves again trapped between scientific and medical experts for warnings and the needs of businesses and Tories keen to maintain the economy.
MPs and the hospitality industry are calling for immediate clarity that there will not be more restrictions over the New Year period — which could be make or break for many bars and restaurants after a wave of cancellations in recent weeks.
Omicron, which is rapidly spreading throughout the world, has been warned by scientists that it still presents a grave threat to NHS. SAGE member Andrew Hayward said this morning that it is difficult to see the future for seniors and the pressure on the NHS will only get worse.
There has been speculation that Mr Johnson could stop short of a confrontation with his lockdown-sceptic MPs — and ministers — by issuing guidance rather than bringing in legal curbs. It would be very difficult for a parliament recall to take place on Boxing Day and bring in additional curbs by the week’s end.
A UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) report became the fourth study to show the new strain causes less severe illness, suggesting the variant is between 50 and 70 per cent less likely to cause hospital admission and up to 45 per cent less likely to result in a person going to A&E
An increasing number of Covid patients are being treated in London’s hospitals for another condition. 25% of current ‘Covid patient’ are actually being treated for another condition. This is compared with 17% a fortnight back.
It comes after a key Government report revealed yesterday that Omicron is up to 70 per cent less likely to cause hospital admission than Delta – though SAGE warned it may need to be 90 per cent milder to avoid the NHS coming under unsustainable pressure.
Multiple sources said last night that time was running out to recall Parliament, with the Government vowing to give MPs a vote if more stringent measures are needed over the Christmas recess. However, preliminary data is not sufficient to support further restrictions.
Sir Jeremy Farrar, a former Sage scientist, said that yesterday it was reasonable to pause and assess the updated data following Christmas, before deciding whether any measures should be taken to make sure the NHS, schools, work areas, and infrastructure continue to function throughout January.
The row over restrictions came as a key Government report revealed that Omicron is up to 70 per cent less likely to cause hospital admission than Delta.
Sajid Javid Health Secretary praised evidence from UK Health Security Agency, (UKHSA), a fourth study that shows the strain can cause less severe disease.
According to the agency, the findings match those of Imperial College London and University of Edinburgh. However, experts warn that there is a greater chance of severe complications.
After Downing Street’s confirmation that no further announcements will be made on tightening regulations until next week, Mr. Javid stated the new findings regarding severity were encouraging.
However, he said that the fast spread of this variant could still pose a grave threat. Large numbers would result in’significant hospitalisations.
However, despite the positive evidence for morale, Covid hospitalisations rose by one fifth on Thursday. This was despite scientists warnings that the UK remains in the “danger zone”.
Cases hit a high for the second day running, with 119,789 reported in 24 hours — up 35 per cent on last Thursday and putting a dampener on hopes that the variant could be less devastating than initially feared.
The latest hospitalizations reached 1,004, the highest number since November early.
Yet another 147 Covid death was recorded, which was barely an improvement from the previous week. But these are still lagging indicators due to how long it takes for someone who has the virus and falls seriously ill. The total number of Omicron cases increased to 16,817.
Meanwhile, there were warnings from SAGE that Omicron might need to be 90 per cent milder than Delta to avoid the NHS coming under unsustainable pressure.
According to No10’s scientists, Omicron could increase in strength every day – similar to modeling estimates.
These could only be avoided with more controls, “significant behavior change” or if the variant reduced the risk of severe diseases by 90 percent, they stated.
This meeting occurred on December 20, but it is possible that scientists did not see an Imperial College London report yesterday showing Omicron to be 45 percent less likely than severe disease.
According to the minutes, “In the absence any further intervention or substantial behaviour change the intrinsic severity of hospitalisations would have to be reduced by around 90% in order for them to avoid the previous peak levels unless there is an earlier wave.”
This is after Omicron was confirmed milder than Delta in three studies done in England, Scotland, and South Africa. It also means Omicron has a lower risk of putting someone in hospital.
Neil Ferguson, “Professor Lockdown”, wrote one paper that found that the mutant strain of Delta was less likely than Delta to result in hospitalisation. This is based upon 300,000.00 people living in England.