According to both parties, Russia’s frontline in south Ukraine has fallen. Hundreds of villages were liberated within hours.
Kyiv said its troops are ‘confidently advancing to the sea’ as videos showed the city of Davydiv Brid under their control along with a clutch of smaller settlements in the surrounding countryside.
Meanwhile pro-Russian military bloggers said their forces had retreated around 10 miles down the Dnipro River as the entire northern end of their territory west of the river fell into Ukrainian hands.
It comes just days after President Vladimir Putin declared the Kherson region – along with three others – to be part of Russia, vowing they would belong to Moscow ‘forever’.
Meantime, NATO has warned it is anticipating Russia may detonate a nuke on Ukraine’s borders in a demonstration of Putin’s resolve.
Ukrainian troops are pictured fighting in Kherson, in the south, with a heavy machinegun mounted on the top of a buggy which is being used to attack a Russian position
A Ukrainian soldier fires an anti-tank launcher from the top of an armoured car as they break through Russian lines to the north of Kherson
The northern end of the Russian frontline in Kherson has reportedly collapsed, with dozens of villages being retaken by the Ukrainians
A BM-21 ‘Grad’ multiple rocket launcher fires at Russian positions in Kharkiv region on October 4, 2022
Recruits carry ammunition during a military training at a firing range in the Rostov-on-Don region of Russia on Tuesday
Ukrainian soldiers prepare to fire a BM-21 ‘Grad’ multiple rocket launcher towards Russian positions in Kharkiv region on October 4, 2022
Kyiv stated that troops are “confidently advancing towards the sea” as video footage shows the city of Davydiv Brid and a handful of other settlements around the area under their control. On October 4, 2022, a Ukrainian soldier is ready to launch a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher at Russian positions in Kharkiv.
Illia Ponomarenko was a respected journalist from the Kyiv Independent.
“I cannot keep up with the news about new-liberated cities coming out every minute.”
Since early August, Ukraine is attacking Kherson after it launched a highly-anticipated counter-offensive against the city to recapture it. It was also the only capital in the region to fall to Putin’s troops over the seven-month-long war.
Bis now, the offensive was slow to advance and took territory only in certain areas. It was then pushed back elsewhere.
It now seems that the Russian military, which are no longer able to hold the line due to being cut off from main supply lines following the destruction of the Dnipro River bridges with HIMARS by Ukraine, is unable.
News of Russian defeats are important because Putin has located the vast majority of his finest soldiers in that region – some estimates say as high as 30,000.
Moscow’s armies could retreat from Kherson and raise questions over their ability to retain any territories they have taken in Ukraine.
The offensive by Ukraine in the North – east of Kharkiv city – continues. Troops have captured two small settlements along the Oskil River’s east bank.
It is situated just seven miles away from Luhansk Oblast’s border, which Putin also annexed last Wednesday.
Ukrainian forces seem to be sweeping up abandoned towns in the area in preparation of an attack on Svatove (in Luhansk).
On Tuesday, October 4, Ukrainian soldiers attended the raising of the National flag ceremony in Lyman (Donetsk region, Ukraine)
A Russian reserve officer recently mobilized launches a rocket-propelled-grenade launcher at Donetsk, Russian-controlled Ukraine. This was during Tuesday’s training.
One newly-mobilized Russian reservist is ready to fire a rocket propelled grenade launcher (RPG), during an exercise at Donetsk, Russian-controlled Ukraine.
Russian troops retreated from Lyman (a strategically important eastern city used by the Russians as a transport and logistics hub) to avoid being captured by Ukrainian forces over the weekend. Pictured: A newly-mobilised Russian reservist fires a rocket-propelled grenade launcher during a training on a range in Donetsk region, Russian-controlled Ukraine on Tuesday
Ukrainian solders are seen liberating the city of Davydiv Brid (left) and the nearby town of Starosillya (right), including one wearing a British flag but speaking in Ukrainian
Ukrainian soldiers are greeted by weeping locals in the town of Novopetrivka, in Kherson, as they recapture territory from the Russians
The door is now open for Russia to push into Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, the two main cities it spent weeks seizing and underpins its claim of total control.
Russian forces pulled out of Lyman (a strategically important eastern city used by the Russians as a major logistics and transport hub) to avoid being overthrown by Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine gained a crucial vantage point from the liberation of this city to push its assault deeper into Russian-held territory.
The Associated Press team that was reporting from the area saw 18 Russian soldiers lying on the ground two days later.
Although it appeared that the Ukrainian military had collected their fallen comrades’ bodies after intense battles over Lyman, the Russians didn’t seem to be able to remove them immediately.
“We fight for the land and for our children so that our people live better,” said Rud, a Ukrainian soldier.
Yevhen Perebyinis, Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister, called for more weapons deployment to Ukraine in response to Russia’s partial mobilization announcement last month.
Perebyinis spoke in video to Ankara as part of a conference about Russia’s war with Ukraine.
“We require additional long-range ammunition and artillery as well as combat aircraft, armed vehicles, to maintain the liberation and expansion of the occupied territory,” the deputy minister explained.
Vladimir Putin made Kherson part of Russia along with Luhansk Donetsk Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk last week.
Russia’s invasion was largely stopped, and now Ukraine is retaking large areas of land in the south and north.
“We require anti-missile and anti-aircraft defence systems in order to protect our civil population and vital infrastructure against terrorist attacks by the Russian forces.”
Sergei Shoigu (Russian Defence Minister) said that Tuesday’s partial mobilization, which was launched just two weeks ago, has resulted in more than 200 000 reservists being recruited by the military.
He explained that they were training the recruits at 80 firing ranges, before being assigned to the front lines of Ukraine.
Putin issued a mobilization order stating that 300,000. Reservists would be called. However, it left the possibility of a larger call-up.
This led to protests across Russia. Tens of thousands of people fled Russia as a challenge for the Kremlin.
Even though Ukraine’s successes in the East and South were achieved, Russia took four Ukrainian territories amid ongoing fighting.
Russian parliament’s upper house, the Federation Council voted Tuesday for the ratification of treaties that would make parts of Russia the eastern Donetsk, Luhansk, and southern Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia areas. On Monday, the lower house did so.
Putin will likely quickly approve the annexed treaties. Russia has incorporated the Ukrainian territories so quickly that the borders were not clear.
Putin pledged to protect the territory he had just announced the illegal annexed of the four Ukrainian regions.
Additionally, he claimed that the United States had “created a precedent” by dropping atomic weapons in World War II.
Russia has around 6,060 nukes. Among them, 2,000 of these are tactical and can be used on the battlefield by ships or planes. Pictured is an intercontinental ballistic missile launched from an airport during military drills
Since 2015, the Vladimir Monomakh is an operational Russin-built ballistic missile submarine armed with the nuclear capable Bulava missile
Putin is now facing a credible threat from Russia with his massive nuclear weapon stockpile. This is because his army has been proving inferior to that of Ukraine and Europe has so far stood firm against Putin’s gas hostage diplomacy.
An army of smug cheerleaders on Russian state television and in ultra-nationalist allies like the Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov or former president Dmitri Madvedev encourage their leader to end the nuclear ban.
Reports have also suggested that NATO has begun to plan a nuclear attack on Ukraine’s borders as a sign of Putin’s determination.
The White House responded by warning of “catastrophic implications for Russia” if Putin presses the launch key.
At the moment, analysts are cautiously suggesting that Putin may not use the most powerful nuclear weapon in the world. According to the CIA, there are no signs that Russia is about to launch a nuclear strike.
But the dictator, who turns 70 on Friday and long-rumoured to be suffering from ill health, will be desperate to get out of the corner he has backed himself into.
Russian’s nuclear stockpile is the most extensive in the world. It includes ‘tactical,’ lower-yield bombs and strategic weapons capable of decimating entire cities or population centers.
Russian tactical nuclear weapons, which have yields between ten to 100 kilotons each, can be used on battlefields in contested areas.
For example, Hiroshima was hit with the Atomic Bomb in 1945. It was 18 kilogramons.
Use of nuclear weapons strategically is the most effective deterrent. Retaliation is inevitable if these weapons are ever deployed. The world will be facing nuclear Armageddon. These are unlikely to be launched by Putin.
Although the threshold for tactical nuclear weapons use is higher, Russia now has close to 2,000. There are many methods of delivering them at designated targets.
Putin could launch it from Kalibr missiles launched from ships in the Black Sea, or from a plane over Russian territory. He could also launch an Iskander short-range ballistic missile from a location on the ground.
Putin might aim to set off one of these bombs as a warning shot, from miles away over the ocean or below it. It would be far more effective than using a gun on the battlefield.
It would serve as an indication of conviction and capability, and to force the US and NATO to back down.
Russia holds a slightly greater nuclear weapon inventory than the USA. It is Putin’s last chance, after his army was proven ineffective. Europe stands firm against Putin’s gas blackmail.
Russian tactical nuclear arms have a yield range of 10 to 100 Kilotons, creating heavy blast damage of less than one mile to three.
Russian ship Gremyashchiy fires missile in Baltic Sea, December 2020
During military drills, the Russian Tu-160 strategic aircraft bomber shoots a cruise rocket at target targets. Putin could possibly use such a system to shoot a nuke at Ukraine targets.
In combat position, an Iskander tactical short-range missile system. Putin might use this technique to deliver any of his 2,200 tactical nukes.
However, it would be costly as an electromagnetic pulse could fry any circuitry within a radius of a certain radius. The fallout and radioactive dust, on the other hand, would make the blast area and the surrounding areas extremely bio-hazardous.
A nuclear cloud may also be blowing westward over NATO countries. This was the former CIA director David Petraeus thought could be interpreted as an attack against a NATO member.
According to The Times, an official defense source claimed that there could be a demonstration in the Black Sea. It would be much more likely than using tactical nukes in Ukraine.
However, Putin could be at significant risk if he choses to act in this manner. According to a source, they could accidentally strike a Russian town near the Ukrainian border like Belgorod.
An ‘escalation staircase’ would be activated if a tactical nuclear weapon is used successfully. NATO could be forced to comply with Kremlin requests or take on additional nuclear attacks which could lead to a dangerous spiral of destruction.
However, if NATO stood firm on its stance, Putin would be disappointed. He would lose any tactical advantages and it would be a risk to alienate support from his aghast allies, such as China or India.
This might also not be the message he wanted, since it wouldn’t prove Putin wasn’t bluffing as he previously claimed.
Putin may consider dropping a nuclear bomb on Ukrainian military, civil, and infrastructure positions to show the West he is serious.
It would be ‘one of the biggest decisions in the history of Earth,’ according to Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior researcher at the UN’s Institute for Disarmament Research, who specialises in nuclear risk.
A military exercise in Donetsk People’s Republic, which is controlled by Russia-backed separatists on Tuesday saw Recruits holding their weapons.
A Ukrainian soldier holds a tank shell in a location near the frontline of an attack by Russia on Ukraine. This was taken on Tuesday, as Russia attacked Ukraine’s Bakhmut region.
Oleksandr Syrskyi (commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces) shakes hands during the ceremonial raising of the National flag at the recently captured city of Lyman in Donetsk, Ukraine, on Tuesday
Ukrainian servicemen speak to one another at their location near a frontline during Russia’s attack upon Ukraine. They are located outside of Bakhmut in Donetsk Region, Ukraine.
Ukrainian military personnel attend the ceremonial raising of the National flag at the newly recaptured Lyman in Donetsk.
Analysts believe that Putin might find it hard to be the first leader of the world since US President Harry Truman, to bring down nuclear war.
Dara Massicot (a senior policy researcher at RAND Corp., and an ex-analyst of Russian military capability at the US Defence Department) stated that ‘it is still taboo in Russia for it to cross that threshold.
It’s also debatable what tactical advantages a tactical nuclear weapon would provide to Putin.
The yields of so-called tactical nukes for battlefield use are generally between one to 50 kilotons [of dynamite] . . . ‘Devastating over areas typically two-square miles,” General Sir Richard Barrons (ex-head of UK joint forces command) was quoted in the FT.
Analysts are also struggling to find battlefield targets worthy of the high price Putin would have to pay. Is it possible for Putin to attack repeatedly if a single nuclear strike doesn’t stop Ukrainian advancements?
Pavel Podvig is a Senior Researcher at the U.N.’s disarmament think-tank in Geneva who specialises on nuclear weapons. He noted that there are not ‘large concentrations’ of troops to aim for in the conflict.
A terrible alternative would be to strike cities and hope for Ukraine’s surrender.
He said, “The decision to murder tens of hundreds of thousands of people cold-blooded, that’s hard.” As it should.
Additionally, Russia’s newly annexed territory would probably be the target of the nuke. It would be irradiated, making it uninhabitable.
Putin dismissed, Russia and NATO face off against China. A desperate Vladimir pushes panic buttons as Ukraine views a way to victory. An expert says THIS is the best possible outcome for the war.
Vladimir Putin is doubling down in the fight against Ukraine.
His bluster is a deception. Russia is losing this war. He knows that.
The despot is in desperate need. His army is crumbling, his battleplans are dead, he’s burning his cash reserves at an inexorable rate and winter is on the horizon. Kyiv has a path to victory that is possible because Ukraine’s army keeps moving across the country. This begs the obvious question: What happens to Russia if it is defeated?
According to Alp Sevimlisoy – millennium fellow at think-tank Atlantic Council, who spoke to MailOnline – that would mean Putin being deposed, Russia itself breaking apart, and NATO in a face-off with China over the spoils.
It is important that the West prepares for such an eventuality as soon as possible, he says. If it does not, Beijing will be free to move into areas like Siberia, Africa, Central Asia and South America. These are regions where Beijing has a foothold but there will be opportunities for it to do so as Russian power diminishes.
We must seek out influence and move into vacuums to be able to confront the People’s Republic of China. He stated that China was a superpower with global connections and we must combat it effectively.
After routing Russian troops east of Kharkiv last week, Ukrainian troops are pushing east. They took the city of Lyman on the weekend, and pushed into Luhansk Oblast within the past 24 hours.
The Ukraine also makes gains in the South, breaking down Russian defense lines along the Dnipro River, and pushing toward the city from the West, challenging Putin’s forces.
Putin attempted to end the rot through annexes and conscriptions of hundreds of thousand of soldiers. However, MailOnline was told by an expert that Putin faces deposition with NATO. The result of this encounter with China is not good.
This scenario wasn’t possible back in February when Putin launched his “special military operation”.
While the West might have worked hard to support Ukraine’s cause, they didn’t believe victory would be possible. The West was outnumbered and outgunned. And then, the Russian military, which is now second to the US, was able to hem in the West from all sides. Although it may take several days or even weeks to fall, few believed that Kyiv would ever be freed.
Then followed a string of shocking miscalculations made by Putin and his generals. The combination of poor planning and preparation, corruption which had completely ruined Russia’s military stocks, and low morale among troops led to Ukraine taking the initiative, which was ruthlessly exploited by its commanders.
Alp Sevimlisoy, a fellow with the Atlantic Council think tank, believes Putin would not survive defeat – and that Russia itself may begin to crumble
Putin planned to make a lightning move on Kyiv and then hand over control of the country to him within days. However, the Kremlin decided instead that it would focus on liberating the Donbas.
The vast open land of Ukraine’s east industrial heartland was infinitely better suited for Russian tactics. However, there were still problems. There were devastating artillery bombings followed by troop and tank advances. Once again, progress slowed down and was eventually stopped.
The Ukraine delivered the devastating two-punch: A military assault on Kherson, in the South, which attracted Russian troops before an easterly hook out of Kharkiv broke Russian lines. This precipitated a massive rout that saw thousands of miles retaken under Kyiv’s command in just a few days.
Russia is reeling. Although Russia may not have its military flat on the ground yet, a hard blow was delivered and it is beginning to buckle. One more and it is possible to knock out the entire army.
Just after Ukraine launched its Kharkiv counterattack, Mr Sevimlisoy said to MailOnline: “The Ukrainians are in control – they’re winning.” The conflict is not going to end with the two sides saying “that’s over”, it will continue throughout Russia, and other parts of the region.
He believes that this would lead to Russia’s loss of power not only in South America and Africa, where it previously sent mercenaries and gave loans, but also ex-Soviet satellite countries such as Georgia and Kazakhstan.
Russia could also be subject to internal fighting, as rebellious areas seek to break free from Moscow’s grip. Power-brokers in the Kremlin are vying for Putin’s throne.
Though the prospect of a Putin-free Russia may once have seemed the stuff of fantasy, Mr Sevimlisoy believes there is almost no way for him to survive defeat in Ukraine.
Putin: “I don’t see any future” [if he loses the war]”Yes,,” Mr Sevimlisoy stated. “How can you get back to your family after all this?” How do you get back on the global stage once you have weaponized energy and food?
As Kyiv continues its offensive in the South, a Russian rocket crashes into an Ukrainian Humvee. Telegram reports that all the troops were able to survive the encounter.
Picture of Ukrainian special forces troops moving through the South of Ukraine, amid reports that a breakthrough in Russian line may have caused Putin’s men to retreat more than 10 miles
Ukrainian tanks opened fire on Russian positions at Kherson. It is part of a large offensive in the area that seeks to capture the city from Russia.
Ukrainian troops ambush Russian armoured cars using anti-tank missiles in Donetsk.
Following a Ukrainian ambush, the Russian Tigr armored vehicle has been left in its wreckage on Donetsk’s forest road.
It’s not an uncommon thought. In the weeks since Ukraine’s counter-attack, experts have openly questioned whether Putin is facing the end – Professor Grigory Yudin predicted so to Canada’s CBC, ex-British army officer Richard Kemp mulled the idea in The Telegraph, and it was also debated by Foreign Affairs magazine.
Mr Sevimlisoy believes Putin’s ouster would fire the starting pistol on all manner of in-fighting within Russia: Different branches of the military turning on one-another, regions bidding to break away from the country, and ex-Soviet satellite states looking for allies many miles away from Moscow.
He stated that Russia’s failure to govern Ukraine in the past was an example of poor statecraft. The “This is not the way we should be managed” group will emerge. According to the military, it was a failure.
I believe collapse will be caused by infighting within the military and intelligence services. Forces in Russia will use this opportunity to declare: “We can manage ourselves better, we have enough support from international to push for independence.” This should be supported.
However, it is not certain that the person who replaces Putin won’t be more extreme. Many believe the heir-apparent to be Sergey Naryshkin, head of the foreign intelligence service, who is considerably more-hawkish than Putin when it comes to the West.
That means NATO’s mission will be to ‘contain Russia and the Russian armed forces’, Mr Sevimlisoy argues, but also ‘we’d be working to contain China.’
Russian power will decline over ex-Soviet satellite countries like Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and further abroad in Africa and South America, where Putin has supported dictatorial regimes using mercenaries and cheap loans.
NATO needs to be ready for competition in every arena, otherwise they risk falling prey to Beijing.
Already there are signs of the beginnings of the rot. Kazakhstan, a long-standing ally to Moscow, is taking a more aggressive tone against Moscow. It has welcomed in over 100,000 Russians who fled Putin’s draft, while insisting on territorial integrity, but not directly mentioning Ukraine.
Azerbaijan and Armenia, another allies of Moscow, began fighting again a few weeks back as Moscow sought to protect its west flank from the Ukrainians. Armenia had to accept that Putin would not help it defend its territory in spite of the fact they were both part of a security accord.
Other nations, which have not yet expressed concern about Russia’s actions but have already given their tacit support are starting to express concerns. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Moscow to not allow the Ukraine war to escalate and to protect the legitimate rights of developing nations.
After initially trying to find a middle ground with India on Ukraine’s issues, Narendra Modi (India’s Prime Minister) delivered a bolder response. He told the Kremlin that ‘Today isn’t an era for war and that he had spoken to him about it.
Recep Tayyip Turkey Erdogan, Turkey’s president, also said that he spoke with Putin during a summit in Uzbekistan and believed that “he wants this to be over as soon as possible” because things at the moment are “quite problematic”.
In Izium, Russian tanks were destroyed in a graveyard. This was then captured by Ukrainian forces during a lightning offensive. It routed Putin’s troops. Ukraine is now on the front foot.
Russian reservists conscripted in to the army to help in Ukraine use a machinegun at a Rostov-area training range to train before being deployed to the frontlines
Before being sent into combat, a Russian reservist is trained to fire a machine gun at the Rostov area.
After the Russian army fled Izium (the city), they left behind Russian armored cars. They destroyed them in Kharkiv oblast.
Erdogan’s position may be the key to an end to the war, believes Mr Sevimlisoy, as it is Turkey and Ukraine who would play a key role in containing the Kremlin following defeat.
“Russia must accept that it’s no longer a global power but a sovereign state, a Black Sea state, whose systems nobody wants to copy,” he stated. ‘And what we’re going to see and are seeing now is that the domination of this region will be up to Turkey.’
Sevimlisoy, who is equipped with US-made fighter jets and supersonic missiles of the highest quality, believes Turkey will hold the key to Western control in the region as well as further into central Asia.
He says this is important because it puts NATO and the West in strong positions to compete against Beijing.
He said, “In any region that Russian influence is decreasing, we must make sure we create regional partnerships, and to have permanent presences.”
We must be able to step into gaps, exert influence and finally face the People’s Republic of China. China is globally connected superpower, and we have to combat them effectively.
“We are far better equipped than the Chinese to defend NATO, which is a huge advantage. But we must put our boots on the ground to make sure that we don’t play catch up when that happens.