Health experts warn that millions of Britons are not protected against Omicron Covid. They urge the public to have their booster shots to prevent overwhelming the health system this Christmas.
According to the UK Health Security Agency, most Covid cases in Britain will be caused by this highly transmissible mutant strain in the coming weeks. They also expect that the number of infections could rise up to one million before the month ends.
Although Omicron booster jabs against Covid have been proven to work, it is possible that millions of Omicron-infected people will not be protected if they do not get the third dose.
Government scientists compared 581 cases of Omicron in Britain with 56,000 of Delta to give preliminary estimates of how well vaccines protect against a variant with mutations that help it evade the body’s immune response.
The majority of elderly who received two doses AstraZeneca a few months back had little protection from Omicron infections. Two doses at Pfizer offered only 30 percent.
A third dose of AstraZeneca can increase protection by 71% in patients who received it the first time, and by 76% for Pfizer users.
Health experts warn that millions of Britons are not protected against Omicron Covid from the first jabs. They also urge the public to have their booster jabs in order to prevent overloading the NHS this Christmas. Two doses of AstraZeneca were given to elderly patients several months back. They provided only 30 percent protection. Pfizer did not offer any additional protection.
Dr Neil Ferguson from Imperial College London has stated that Omicron can’very substantially overwhelm’ the NHS and lead to up to 10,000 hospitalisations per day, if it’s as severe as Delta.
Yesterday, 469,479 booster shots were reported. It was the second most so far. The rolling average has reached a new record of 392,585. According to the UK Government, booster jabs can provide 75 percent protection against mild diseases caused by Omicron. Pictured: A community vaccination centre in White City, West London
Professor Lockdown is the name Prof Ferguson has given to himself because he supports imposing life restrictions to stop viral transmission. This was after Prof Ferguson stated that Britain had already been hit by a new type of virus.
Below is a graph showing vaccine effectiveness and time between vaccinations. Pfizer booster provided between 70-75 per cent and 90 percent protection against mild Omicron disease, depending on the vaccine used. Pfizer could provide just 37% protection in three months, while Delta provides 60%. After the same time, two shots of AstraZeneca provided virtually no protection. Scientists cautioned that AstraZeneca data was not reliable because it was used in certain age groups, and was often given at the beginning of vaccinations in the most vulnerable populations.
With the number of cases in Britain increasing by two per day, officials from health are encouraging people to get tested and avoid an increase in their risk over Christmas.
Professor Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College London epidemiologist, has warned that the Omicron variant has the potential to ‘very substantially overwhelm the NHS’ and cause up to 10,000 hospitalisations a day if it is as virulent as Delta.
Ferguson, who has been referred to as Professor Lockdown because of his support for imposing restriction on life to block viral transmission, said the UK was already experiencing a ‘very explosive wave of infection’ from the new variant.
The number of hospitalisations this would cause depends on the severity of disease caused by Omicron, he added.
Omicron is more easily transmissible than a virus but it does not appear to have the same severity as other mutations. This means that Omicron has remained less deadly and hospitalizations are lower.
The University of East Anglia Professor Paul Hunter stated that it does not seem as likely to place you in the hospital. But he said, “a sharp rise in cases will result in a steep increase in hospitalisations.”
Yesterday, 469,479 booster jabs have been reported. This is the second-highest number so far. The rolling average has risen to 392,585.
UK Government analysis suggests that booster jabs offer up to 75 per cent protection against mild illness caused by the super Omicron variant.
Omicron could be responsible for 8.5% of all infections according to data from the UK Health Security Agency. Figures are based on the failure rate of PCR tests to find a specific gene. It is an early indicator that the variant may be present. To confirm Covid infection, PCRs search for three genes. However Omicron only detects two.
Public Health Scotland believes the new variant of Covid will dominate next week. It is expected that it will account for over 50% of all Covid cases and almost all new infections in the coming year.
Omicron is 13.3% of Covid cases across Scotland. It doubles every two-to three days
Experts believe that the three-dosage regimen will offer greater protection against serious illness or death due to this highly evolved strain. A further confirmation was made that no Omicron infection in the UK has resulted in death or hospitalization.
UK Health Security Agency performed a real-world assessment of 581 Omicron-positive people. They compared the vaccine status with a control group who had tested negative for Delta.
According to the study, Pfizer boosters provide between 70% and 75% protection from mild Omicron disease, regardless of whether a vaccine has been used previously. This compares with Delta’s 95%.
Pfizer could offer only 37 percent protection in three-and-a half months after two doses, while Delta offers 60 percent. After the same time, two shots of AstraZeneca provided virtually no protection.
But the scientists caution that data for AstraZeneca was less reliable due to the fact the vaccine was restricted in some age groups and typically used at the very start of the initial vaccine rollout in vulnerable people.
UKHSA experts who carried out the study said that while it was disappointing that Omicron weakened existing jabs to some extent, the new variant is not as vaccine-evasive as initially feared.
They warned, however, that because the strain can slip past the immune systems of people with waning protection, it is on track to become dominant in days. The agency estimates that the variant is double every two to three days and that Omicron case numbers will exceed one million by the end of the month.
The researchers were unable to determine how much protection the vaccines offered against serious illness, hospitalisations and deaths due to the small number of Omicron cases in the UK and the lag between infection and severe outcomes.
But Dr Mary Ramsay, Head of Immunisation at the UKHSA, said: ‘We expect the vaccines to show higher protection against the serious complications of COVID-19, so if you haven’t yet had your first two doses please book an appointment straight away.’
Previous experience with the Delta strain suggests that protection against hospitalisation after two doses is well maintained, even when it drops against mild illness.
However, experts warn that even slight reductions in vaccine efficacy against severe disease could dramatically increase the number of vaccinated people who will fall seriously unwell.
In SAGE papers published this week, Government scientists said: ‘If omicron reduces vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation from 96 to 92 per cent, that would effectively double the number of vaccinated individuals who are not protected from hospitalisation.’
It came as the number of cases of the super-mutant jumped by 54 per cent in a day and overall daily Covid infections breached levels not seen since the UK’s second wave.
Nicola Sturgeon today warned of an impending ‘tsunami’ triggered by the highly-transmissible variant. Cases north of the border have doubled in a week.
She announced entire families in Scotland will have to self-isolate for 10 days if one member of the household tests positive for coronavirus to help tackle the strain and keep a lid on the impending crisis.
Meanwhile, UK-wide statistics showed cases have risen by 15 per cent in a week to 58,194 — making it the highest daily toll since the darkest depths of January, when Britain was being battered by the Alpha variant but had yet to dish out any vaccines.
Hospitalisations crept up by six per cent on last week but deaths fell by around 16 per cent over the same time-frame. Both measures are just a fraction of the level seen during previous waves because of the success of jabs but will rise over the coming weeks because of a delay between getting infected and becoming seriously ill.
Health chiefs today recorded another 448 cases of Omicron, taking the official toll to 1,265. The true toll will be much higher because not every sample is rigorously analysed in a lab.
Separate estimates suggest the real toll could be more than 4,000 cases per day based on evidence showing the strain is already making up nearly 13 per cent of new infections.
It came as it emerged that the UK Government is already working on a ‘Plan C’ of Covid restrictions, just days after Boris Johnson triggered his ‘Plan B’.
Michael Gove is due to hold a COBRA meeting this afternoon with the first ministers of the devolved administrations to discuss the latest Covid data and the UK response.
But No10 insists it has ‘no plans’ for a Plan C or a circuit breaker lockdown over Christmas. The Prime Minister’s official spokesperson said: ‘We think the Plan B measures are the right approach and strike the right balance.’
Omicron already makes up 30 PER CENT of all new Covid cases in London as figures show capital has country’s FASTEST growing outbreak with infections up in ALL of city’s 32 boroughs and hospitalisation rates now starting to creep up
ByLuke Andrews Health Reporter For Mailonline
Omicron already makes up 30 per cent of new Covid cases in London, according to confidential data given to ministers that underlines the severity of the situation Britain faces in the run-up to Christmas as fears grow that even tougher restrictions may be needed.
UK leaders today were dragged into a Cobra meeting to discuss the next logical steps in fighting the pandemic, and analyse the most up-to-date evidence on the super-mutant strain.
Communities Secretary Michael Gove, who held the briefing virtually after testing positive himself, warned the current crisis was ‘deeply concerning’, naming London and Scotland as hotspots. He described the latest data presented to the devolved nations as ‘very challenging new information’.
Stark projections show the super-mutant variant could become dominant within days, prompting concerns that Boris Johnson will have no choice but to hit the panic button once more.
No10 has already brought in its back-up Plan B strategy, reimposing work-from-home guidance and making face masks compulsory in more venues. Officials have repeatedly refused to rule out acting further.
Tougher options could replicate ones introduced last Christmas in the face of the second wave, which effectively cancelled Christmas for millions living in areas worst-hit by Alpha, such as London.
London also appears to be faring badly this time around, with Omicron thought to blame for Government data showing the capital has the England’s fastest growing Covid outbreak. All of the city’s 32 boroughs are seeing cases tick upwards, and Omicron has been found in every corner of the city.
Hospitalisations and deaths in the capital remain flat but both measures lag behind by several weeks because of how long it can take for someone who has caught the virus to become seriously unwell.
Public health chiefs in the capital say they are taking the new threat ‘extremely seriously’, and that it could take over in the city in as little as two weeks.
Scotland is the other Omicron hotspot, with concerns of a ‘tsunami’ of cases prompting Nicola Sturgeon to today introduce stricter self-isolation rules. Announcing that entire families will now have to self isolate if one member of their household tests positive for the virus, she said the variant could become dominant within days.
Speaking following this afternoon’s Cobra briefing, Mr Gove said: ‘The meeting I’ve just chaired with First Ministers of all the devolved administrations was presented with some very challenging new information.
‘We know that we have the highest number of Covid infections across the UK recorded today since January 9. We know the Omicron variant is doubling every two to three days in England, and possibly even faster in Scotland.
‘We know that 30 per cent of reported cases in London are the Omicron variant and of course we only identified Omicron in this country a fortnight ago.’
Meanwhile, Britain’s total Omicron cases surged by 54 per cent in a day with another 448 confirmed. It took the official toll past 1,200 but health chiefs admit the true figure will be up to 20 times higher, with surveillance data suggesting it already makes up at least 10 per cent of new cases – the equivalent of 4,000 people per day.
It comes after Britain’s Covid cases rose 15 per cent in a week today with another 58,194 recorded as the mutant strain takes hold. Hospitalisations rose by six per cent in seven days with 839 admissions, and deaths fell by more than a tenth.
But in a promising sign a study found booster jabs may be 70 to 75 per cent effective at stopping infections with the Omicron variant.
The above shows the percentage change in the Covid infection rate across London’s 32 boroughs in the week ending November 27, and December 4. Cases are surging in every borough. For comparison, a month ago they were only rising in 10
But hospitalisations in the city are yet to tick up and remain level with around 110 new admissions recorded every day on average, according to the latest data. But in a sign of what could be to come on December 7, the latest available, there were 148 admissions which was a 40 per cent rise on the same time last week
London’s Covid deaths are also yet to tick up, official data shows. But these are lagging indicators because it takes a few weeks for someone who has caught Covid to become seriously unwell and sadly die from the disease
The number of PCR tests carried out in London has risen 15 per cent in a week but the positivity rate — the number that detect the virus — has remained level suggesting there is a real-terms surge in cases. The above graph shows the number of lateral flow tests completed which has remained level so far
The above graph shows Covid cases in London. They are starting to tick up as the more transmissible Omicron variant begins to spread in the capital
The above graph shows the % change in London’s average infection rate. The capital has the fastest growing outbreak in the country, after Omicron was detected in every borough
According to the Department of Health, coronavirus data shows London infections rose by 25.3 percent during the week ended December 4, according to the most recent available.
It was also the fastest among England’s nine region, followed closely by London (up 16.8%) and South East (13.4%).
The other extreme of the spectrum is Yorkshire and Humber, where cases are increasing by 6.8% and 7.6% respectively.
Figures are calculated based upon specimen dates, which is the date that someone test positive. Statistics are always five days behind the actual situation.
London’s infection rate — the number of cases per 100,000 people spotted in a week — stood at 474.7 in the most recent week of data.
The figure is now the highest it has been since January 2001, when Britain was still in the worst of the second waves and hadn’t yet implemented a serious vaccination program.
Although PCR test rates may have increased slightly, the positive rate of eight percent has not changed. This suggests that the increase is real.
But in more proof that vaccines have drastically changed the game, hospitalisations in the capital are just a fraction of rates seen during previous peaks.
It is estimated that 117 Covid-infected Brits currently are being admitted daily to London hospitals. This number is 22% higher than what was seen in South Africa a fortnight prior to Omicron’s detection.
However, Covid deaths in capital remain at around 10 per day. Elderly and immunocompromised are the most vulnerable.
UKHSA has finally released long-awaited data showing that there have been 890 confirmed Omicron cases in capital, as well as Omicrons in each borough.
Genome sequencing confirms Omicron cases. PCR can indicate that someone is infected. Three genes are tested to confirm Covid infection. The gold standard swabs test for these three genes. Omicron doesn’t show any of these genes. This suggests someone may be infected.
Barking, Dagenham and Greenwich have the greatest number of Omicron patients in the capital (55), while Lewisham and Greenwich (both 53) are close behind. Newham has 52.
Omicron will cause nearly all coronavirus infections in Scotland within the next 10 days. These shocking forecasts were made by Nicola Sturgeon who warned about an incoming tsunami’ of variant cases. She also slapped Scots harder.
She said, “We are facing a new and very serious challenge because of the Omicron variant.
‘To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing – indeed we may be starting to experience – a potential tsunami of infections.’
She added: ‘Indeed, I think we can now say with some confidence that we expect it to overtake Delta within days, not weeks – we estimate this could be as early as the very beginning of next week.’