Western military analysts believe Russia can’t keep these troops in place for too long, both financially and logistically. They would be required to bring them home by summer.
There are a variety of estimates about the number of Russian troops moving closer to Ukraine. They range from approximately 60,000 to 100,000. However, a U.S. intelligence report suggests that there could be as high as 175,000.
Officials from the United States have indicated that Russia may attack Ukraine by this month. As ground becomes more challenging, it will be easier for tanks to maneuver quickly.
Russia requested security guarantees in order to end the crisis at talks held this week between NATO and the United States.
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister said Friday that Moscow is not willing to wait for an answer forever and demanded a written response to all Russian proposals.
However, what would a Russian attack look and accomplish?
“The current deployments have a wide range of capabilities. They allow Russia to have options, and they keep the defender guessing,” Keir Gilles, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House, said.
These are just a few possible outcomes.
DONBASS ESCALATION
Since 2014, heavily armed Russian-backed separatists control a large part of eastern Ukraine and exchange fire with Ukrainian government troops despite an agreement in 2015 that stopped major hostilities.
According to Kyiv, 15,000 have been killed in the conflict in Donbass. Russia denies that Ukraine had regular troops there.
Russia accused Kyiv, claiming it was planning to take the area by force. Ukraine refutes this accusation.
An activist of the Donetsk People’s Republic, (DNR), checks a machine pistol at combat positions near the rebel-controlled settlement Yasne (Yasnoye), in Donetsk.
Russia may use an unplanned or misunderstood escalation in such febrile conditions as a casus belli.
According to a source, the Russian Defence Ministry thought this would be the best scenario in case Moscow decides to strike. However, he wasn’t aware of such a decision. He suggested that Kyiv may also be provoked by the separatists to attack, and could ask Russia for troops.
According to Neil Melvin (director of International Security Studies, RUSI think-tank, London), Russian forces may expand fighting in Donbass in order to bring Ukraine into a traditional conflict. Moscow might try to take over the Ukrainian coastlines along the Sea of Azov. It would then create a land bridge connecting Rostov with Crimea.
ASSAULT FROM CRIMEA
Russia sent new reinforcements to Crimea in 2014, after it annexed Ukraine.
According to Konrad Muzyka (director of Rochan consulting in Poland), Moscow could attack Ukraine from Crimea, seize territory all the way up to Dnieper River, and that would be a good barrier for any Ukrainian counter-offensive.
He said that artillery and missile strikes could be used to strike the Ukrainian south. Special forces might also seize railway crossings or bridges in order for troops and tanks access to these junctions. He said that there are two routes from Crimea that can be blocked or destroyed. This is a weakness.
He stated that the force would seize control over the canal, which supplied fresh water to Crimea up until Russia annexed and Ukraine blocked the flow.
MULTIFRONT ATTACK
An intelligence document from the U.S. that is publicly accessible said Russia might invade this month, with at least 100 battalion-tactical groups (BTGs), or about 175,000 soldiers. According to it, about 50 BTGs had been placed in the east and north of Ukraine as well as in Crimea in the south.
Melvin stated that capturing southern Ukraine would cut Kyiv from NATO’s Black Sea presence and the coast. This could be a good move for Russian nationalists, who view the region as either the historical ‘Novorossiya lands’ or the ‘New Russia.
An assault on multiple fronts might include an attack into northeastern Ukraine. It would encircle but possibly not enter cities, where they could become embroiled in fighting. Giles stated that Russian troops might also be allowed to move into Belarus. This would create a front in the north for Ukraine, which would bring Russian forces closer towards Kyiv.
Melvin stated that an invasion would cost the world economically and politically.
According to military analysts, even though Russia’s army is only half that of Ukraine, it could still face resistance from guerrilla types, which would make it difficult to retain the territory it has captured.
MISSILE-ATTACKS OR CYBER STRIKES
Giles suggested that certain scenarios might involve cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure or long-range missile attack. The weaker antimissile defenses in Ukraine would allow for missile attacks.
He stated that the different ways Russia could persuade West to punish Kyiv are not necessarily based on a land invasion.
On Friday, a number of websites belonging to government agencies were hacked. Some showed messages saying: ‘Be afraid and expect the worst.’
Russia immediately became the target of suspicion, though Ukrainian officials claimed they were not aware that critical infrastructure had been targeted.