Modelling by SAGE was today slammed as ‘fictitious’ after projecting 6,000 daily Covid deaths and 10,000 hospitalisations this winter in a worst-case scenario.
In advice to ministers published this weekend, the Government’s scientific advisers said there could be astronomical casualty numbers without more ‘stringent measures’.
SAGE’s modeling team from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine discovered that there were potentially 10,400 hospitals in England during the worst case scenario.
The assumption was that Omicron would continue to grow exponentially regardless of Plan B curbs. Two jabs provide only 50% protection from severe diseases caused by the mutant strain, and boosters only 80%.
Warwick University researchers calculated the 6,000 deaths per day and used similar pessimistic assumptions regarding vaccine effectiveness as well as current curbs to reduce transmission by only 20%.
These predictions would be true if 60 per cent of the people admitted to Covid within the next month die.
Comparatively, last January’s peak saw an average of 4,000 admissions per day and 1,300 deaths. This gave rise to a hospital-fatality ratio of 32.5%. Warwick claimed that Omicron placed a lot of pressure on the NHS.
These were the worst-case scenario, even though 48.8 % of over-12s had been boosted, 81% double-jabbed and South Africa reports that the mutant strain was milder.
It is important to note that the modelers didn’t consider any scenarios in which Omicron can cause milder symptoms than Delta, or whether people change their behavior over the next few weeks as a result of this variant.
SAGE’s chief modeller, Professor Graham Medley (LSHTM), revealed that this weekend the committee doesn’t take into account optimistic scenarios since ‘that doesn’t get decisions made.
An ex-Government scientist who wished to remain anonymous today told MailOnline that the numbers are ‘fictitious’, adding: ‘Models have to simplify the world to predict the future, but clearly that’s an absurd future.’
According to them, the doomsday scenarios are comparable to science fiction. They also said that they don’t question this because they worship numbers. Professor Keith Willison of Imperial College London’s chemical biology department criticized the models for being ‘widely pessimistic and fraudulent’.
Boris Johnson today will call an emergency meeting to his Cabinet in order to make a decision on whether to add coronavirus controls before Christmas. At 2pm, Boris Johnson will hold a virtual meeting of his Cabinet to discuss a possible further crackdown in order to stop Omicron spreading.
The three possible options for the PM to address the variant in the midst of increasing case numbers have been presented to the PM, with The Telegraph recommending that the lowest intervention level be advice to keep household mix indoors to a minimum.
In the second, there would be mandatory restrictions on household mix and social distancing. There would also be an 8 PM curfew in pubs and restaurants. The third level, which is more difficult, would have a complete lockdown. Now Mr Johnson must consider what his next step will be, as he knows that tightening Covid rules could spark an angry Tory backlash.
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s modeling team for SAGE found that there would be 10400 hospitals in England each day during the worst case scenario. Omicron is expected to continue growing exponentially under Plan B curbs. Two jabs provide only 50% protection from severe illness caused by the mutant strain, and boosters are just 80%.
Warwick University scientists calculated the 6,000 deaths per day and used similar pessimistic assumptions regarding vaccine effectiveness as well as current curbs to reduce transmission by only 20%. These predictions would have to be true if 60% of the people admitted for Covid will die in the coming months. These lines are colored differently to show how stricter measures have affected the peak. The following are the colors: January 19 (blue), January 26 (orange), February 3 (yellow), January 10 (purple), and December 19.
Today’s figures by UKHSA show that Omicron confirmed cases increased in England by 69% compared to the previous day. The numbers rose from 9,427 up to 23,168
The LSHTM models looked at how the virus would spread if only Plan B measures — including working from home, and mask wearing in most areas — were left in place.
These scenarios included vaccines that were 80 percent effective against severe illness, boosters around 90% effectiveness and no additional control.
These would lead to an additional 6,000 admissions in hospitals at peak levels, which is higher than the level last winter.
Based on real-world data on the response of Omicron to Covid fighting antibody from people vaccinated, estimates on vaccine effectiveness have been drawn.
However, this ignores other immune systems such as the T-cells that provide immunity.
The modellers also didn’t consider scenarios in which this variant would be more mild than previous versions.
The researchers stated that Omicron is assumed to have the same severity level as Delta because of a lack data.
‘If Omicron displays a severity lower than Delta this would reduce our projected number of severe outcomes.
It was also shown that Omicron infections increased by 40 percent per day. The model showed a two-to-threefold increase in Omicron infections every other day.
However, they didn’t consider the possible impact that reduced mixing may have during Christmas.
Warwick University’s models looked at scenarios with varying levels of severe disease prevention and restriction.
Also, they examined the effects of restriction imposed on yesterday (December 19), December 26, January 3, and January 10.
Even with the most positive scenario, which saw a lockdown within six days and 100% effectiveness of vaccines, hospitalisations may still exceed 10,000 per day.
Omicron may also be less severe than the previous versions of this virus, but it was not included in the model.
These researchers pointed out that there is not enough data to determine the severity of Omicron infections in hospitals. This makes it hard for them to estimate their vaccine effectiveness.
They also used a 40 percent daily growth rate to model infections.
They did not take into account the effect of socializing being cut before Christmas, even though London appears to be in lockdown.
MailOnline received a statement from an ex-Government science adviser who requested anonymity. He claimed that the projection of 6,000 deaths per night was only a “fictitious” one.
If you want to create a model that predicts that there may be up to 6,000 deaths every day, it is necessary to assign a probability.
“Models need to simplify the world so they can predict the future. That’s absurd!”
The doomsday scenarios they presented were similar to science fiction. They also said that “But we don’t tend to doubt it because we worship number.”
Professor Keith Willison from Imperial College London was a chemical biologist who criticized the models for being ‘widely pessimistic and fraudulent’.
He told MailOnline: ‘Well, the chairman of the SAGE modelling (Graham Medley) committee admitted at the weekend: “We model scenarios that are useful to decisions”.
“These are the worst possible scenarios” that SAGE produces in order to scare the UK population and lock them down further.
“The Covid death scenarios, which are extremely pessimistic and fraudulent,” Mild symptoms can also be found in Omicron variants. We are now in a place where Covid can be controlled and is endemic.
Prof. Anotida MAZVAMUSE, an expert in maths at Sussex University, said that SAGE’s predictions were at worst ‘highly unlikely’ and current data doesn’t support a’so grim outlook’.
He told MailOnline: ‘From my point of view, these figures are highly unlikely, the numbers to-date seem to suggest very low deaths due to Covid and even the number of hospitalisations are nowhere near what we experienced last winter.
“The ground data doesn’t support such a dire forecast.” These assumptions are purely hypothetical and cannot be inferred from data like we do with modelling.
Minutes from SPI-M, which feeds into SAGE, show that models don’t assume any behavior changes beyond what was seen in the past due to the imposition of similar measures.
However, it admits that there will be a significant impact on current waves if social mixing is reduced in a way not mandated.
SAGE’s Chief Modeller, Fraser Nelson, admitted to this weekend’s Twitter chat that they hadn’t considered Omicron’s less severe scenarios because it ‘doesn’t get decisions made.
When Professor Medley was asked why this situation wasn’t considered, he replied that decision-makers generally don’t care about situations in which decisions must be made.
“That scenario does not inform anything.” Decision-makers do not have to take any action if nothing occurs.
When asked if they only model bad situations, he replied that they mainly model the scenarios we’re given to. The policy team has a dialog with the modelers to discuss what information they require in order to support their policies.
Stephen Reicher, a lockdown-campaigner and SAGE scientist, today demanded that harsher restrictions be placed on everyday living.
BBC Breakfast’s University of St Andrews scientist said that while we may need to restrict our activities, it is necessary for us to have adequate support for businesses and individuals.
He answered a question about Christmas and said that it was safer to not meet up prior to Christmas.
“If you’re looking for a great Christmas dinner, it is important to meet up at least one month before the holiday. You can stack the odds to your favor if you do ever meet up. The first thing you should do is make sure you do a lateral flow testing.
They are not perfect, but they can improve your chances of success. We should make sure the areas we enter are ventilated. Also, it’s a good idea to consider distancing and meeting outdoors, if possible.
“We have the ability to do many things to increase our odds of winning, but we must remember that Christmas is at stake if we don’t get together before Christmas.
Heneghan (Oxford epidemiologist, GP) countered him with the warning that ministers are being constantly presented with worse-case scenarios.
According to him, BBC Radio 4’s Today program stated that models must be balanced. Ministers are beginning to see the worst-case scenario.
‘But actually those models start to break down very rapidly, and they’re already breaking down now with the numbers.
‘What you’re seeing is that people testing positive has gone up by about 50 per cent in a week. This is not the same as doubling daily.
‘But if you take the cases aside and you focus on the data that matters, the number of patients admitted hardly changed over a week, about up eight per cent.
‘In fact yesterday deaths went down, 45 daily deaths. You can see that the situation is very different if you only focus on information that really matters.
“Remember that many people catch this disease in hospitals,” he said. The numbers of people in hospital are not clear how many actually got infected and are turning up without the actual disease, so that’s important.
‘We don’t even understand in the data how many people are recovered and waiting to be discharged. Over 10,000 people were still waiting for discharge from care homes or social services packages in the first quarter of 2011.