There has been panic among MPs over the recent mid-term drop in Conservative support at the 57 Boris Johnson seats, which was achieved in 2019, and this fear is causing them to worry that their time in the Commons will be limited.
The results of today’s Mail on Sunday poll are likely to fan the frenzy of bitching and back- stabbing that dominates messaging sites used by the MPs as they speculate about which of them would be most likely to lose if an Election were held tomorrow – and debate whether to submit letters of no-confidence in the Prime Minister.
Our Deltapoll survey backs up anecdotal evidence from the MPs – dominated by the so-called Red Wallers who seized former Labour strongholds – that Mr Johnson has become a drag on their fortunes.
One told this newspaper: ‘I keep hearing the same line on the doorstep – ‘I’d support you if you got rid of your boss’.’
Only 34% of the voters in the seats agreed that Johnson is doing well, and 62% disagree. This net rating gives Johnson a minus 28. Sir Keir Sterner, Labour’s leader scores minus 6.
Sir Keir receives 38% of the vote for ‘best prime minister’, while Mr Johnson is given 33%. By 40 percent to 33%, the Labour double act of Starmer & Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves are also preferable to Mr Johnson & Chancellor Rishi Sonak.
On 38%, Sir Keir is rated the best Prime Minister, and Mr Johnson on 33%. By 40 percent to 33%, the Labour double act of Starmer & Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves are also preferable to Mr Johnson & Chancellor Rishi Sonak.
The results of today’s Mail on Sunday poll are likely to fan the frenzy of bitching and back- stabbing that dominates messaging sites used by the MPs as they speculate about which of them would be most likely to lose if an Election were held tomorrow – and debate whether to submit letters of no-confidence in the Prime Minister
The disputes over whether parties were held on Downing Street under Covid rules seem to have been ‘cut through to voters in the critical seat, with Johnson himself expressing anger at the situation.
Only 16 per cent of voters in the seats think Mr Johnson obeyed the rules, while 72 per cent think he did not – and 65 per cent think he should resign if the Cabinet Office’s investigation into the events during lockdown concludes that he broke the rules.
The poll found that nearly six in ten of swing voters – 58 per cent – do not expect Mr Johnson to be Prime Minister this time next year. According to new Tory MPs, the survey supports the claim that increasing living expenses, due to higher energy and fuel costs, has eroded support for Conservatives from these seats.
Fourty percent of respondents say that their family finances have deteriorated since Johnson was elected PM. Only 12 per cent are better off. Even more worrying for the party is that 41% believe they will continue to decline in this coming year.
The poll found that nearly six in ten of swing voters – 58 per cent – do not expect Mr Johnson to be Prime Minister this time next year. New Tory MPs claim that rising living costs, fueled by higher fuel and energy bills, are reducing support for Conservatives in swing seats.
‘Trust’ is a theme which runs through the poll – a majority, 53 per cent, don’t trust Mr Johnson to grow the economy; 67 per cent don’t trust him to ‘level up’ income differences around the country; 68 per cent don’t trust Boris to help the poorest and 74 per cent don’t trust him to tell the truth.
The most frequent complaint of disgruntled Tory lawmakers is that No10 focuses on issues of marginal concern to voters, like the environment.
Lee Anderson, Tory MP from Ashfield writes in Sunday’s Mail on Sunday that the Government’s successes, including its investment in NHS, are being outweighed by the huge increases in living costs, as a result of higher energy bills. This is something my voters care more about than platitudes about the COP26 green agenda made by wealthy individuals who flew in private aircrafts to attend the summit.
He adds: ‘I know from conversations with the Prime Minister that he gets it – but I am not convinced everyone in his inner circle does. If we deliver on people’s priorities – rather than what we think are people’s priorities – then there is no reason why we cannot make further gains in the next Election’.
Lee Anderson, Tory MEP for Ashfield (pictured), writes that today’s Mail on Sunday shows how the Government’s accomplishments, like its investment into the NHS, “are being outweighed” by the massive rises in living costs, due to higher energy bills
His assertion seems to be supported by the poll, which shows that the environment ranks sixth in voters’ priority list, after Covid and supporting the NHS.
If Mr Johnson does leave No10, Red Wall voters have a clear successor in mind. With 18 percent, Mr Sunak is the top vote getter, well ahead of Sajid Javid (the Health Secretary), who ranks joint second with his predecessor Jeremy Hunt. Party members love Liz Truss as Foreign Secretary. She is tied for fifth at 3% with Matt Hancock and Deputy PM Dominic Raab.
Joe Twyman (co-founder, director, and chief executive officer of Deltapoll) stated that the Conservative win in 2019 is due in large part to winning voters from seats in which they had never been successful before. However, the data show that Boris Johnson must hold onto the 2019 seats.
“With the recent controversy still fresh in voters’ minds and many important issues to resolve, it is possible that the New Year may not be happy for the Prime Minister.”
Between December 23 and 30, 2018, 1,567 Americans were surveyed online by the company, 612 of which were from Tories-acquired seats in 2019. Based on the Tories’ 58 2019 seats, the firm came up 57 constituencies. John Bercow was not included in the calculation. The net gain by the party was 48. Ten seats were lost. All data were weighted so that they represented the entire adult population.
Red Wall voters know who Mr Johnson will be replacing if Johnson leaves No10. Sajid Javid is at 18%, while Mr Sunak, with 18.5%, comes in first.