Official data shows that the Covid outbreak in Britain is not the most severe in Western Europe.
The UK saw an increase in cases after September’s schoolchildren returned. This prompted scientists to call No10 to use its Plan B strategy and label the nation the continent’s coronavirus capitol.
Up-to-date statistics indicate that Ireland, Belgium and Austria have all surpassed Britain in Western Europe’s Covid league table.
Despite the fact that all three countries have a mixture of stricter restrictions, such as face masks and work from home guidance, and vaccination passports,
Numerous data points now suggest that the UK’s third wave has already peaked. This has given No10 greater confidence as it heads into winter.
Experts believe that the spread of booster jabs along with the natural immunity from the back to school wave will lead to infections continuing to plummet over the next few weeks.
And they say Britain doesn’t need to worry about Europe’s concerning uptick, which has exploded in Germany and led ministers there to call for restrictions.
Germany today reported its highest ever daily Covid incidences. Germany’s health minister said that the fourth wave has hit the country with “full force”. The World Health Organization warned Europe that Europe is presently at the ‘epicentre’ of the pandemic.
MailOnline was informed by Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious diseases expert at the University of East Anglia. He said that the influx of cases following the return of the children had kept immunity high going into winter.
The UK has fallen to fourth in West Europe’s most infected country despite having no Covid restrictions. Austria, Belgium, Ireland and Ireland are experiencing up to 17 percent more cases despite having Covid passports, mandatory face masks and work from home guidance.
Despite falling in the infection rates rankings, the UK still has a high daily death rate. Yesterday, 2.5 Covid deaths per 100,000 people were recorded in the UK, compared with 1.6 in Belgium, Ireland, and Austria. Because of the time it takes to become seriously ill after being infected, deaths are often a few weeks behind case figures.
Yesterday’s UK drop to fourth place in Western Europe. Ireland, Denmark, and Austria all recorded more cases. Austria is carrying out the most Covid testing in Western Europe. It is doing around 37 tests per 1,000 people per day, while the UK does around 12 daily tests for every 1,000 people. This means that Austria is catching more cases than the UK. However, a greater proportion of cases will be going unnoticed. However, Ireland (4 per 1,000) and Belgium (6 per 1,000) are reporting higher infection rates than the UK. They are also testing at a two-thirds lower rate than the UK.
He stated, “The virus is running out people to infect who are not already infected with the disease.”
He claimed that Britain’s roll-out of the booster vaccine should be fast and effective in keeping infections at bay in older, vulnerable populations.
Professor Hunter stated that “Cases are already falling quite significantly in the over-80s who have had most booster doses, so I’m moderately optimistic.”
Daily testing data from Our World in Data — an Oxford University-based research platform which complies national statistics — shows the UK yesterday dropped to fourth place in Western Europe, after holding the top spot for four months.
But it wasn’t the worst across the whole continent, with the Eastern bloc seeing as many as 1,202 cases per million people — more than double the UK rate.
The UK yesterday recorded 37,269 positive tests — equivalent to 574 people per million.
Despite the fact that cases have been increasing in the UK during the summer, rates across the four home countries have been falling for 11 days in a row. This is despite the Government refusing to implement measures such mandatory face masks and work-from-home guidance.
In Europe, rates are increasing in many countries, including Austria, Belgium, Ireland and Germany as well as the Netherlands and Denmark, Germany and Iceland.
It is believed that immunity is lower in countries that have experienced lower levels of infection during the pandemic.
In Austria, where people must wear high-grade FFP2 masks on public transport and essential shops, 674 people per million tested positive yesterday 17 per cent higher than the UK cases.
The country also requires that unvaccinated persons wear the masks in all shops, museums, and public places. Everybody must also show proof of vaccination, or a negative test, before they can enter almost any indoor setting and some outdoor spaces.
However, Austria is also carrying out the most Covid tests in Western Europe — around 37 tested per 1,000 people each day — while the UK is conducting around 12 daily testers per 1,000 people.
This means that Austria is taking on more cases than the UK. The UK will have a lower proportion.
But Belgium (six per 1,000 people) and Ireland (4 per 1,000 people) — which are also recording higher infection rates than the UK — are testing up to two-thirds less than the UK.
Belgium recorded 634 cases per million yesterday — a figure 10 per cent higher than the UK.
It requires that people wear a face mask in public transport and shops.
To enter any country hospitality and fitness venues, all visitors must present proof of vaccinations or a negative test.
And Ireland has capped the number of households that can meet indoors to three for vaccinated families, while unvaccinated people are only able to meet indoors with one vaccinated household at once.
Facial coverings are required for all shops. For full admission to cinemas and theatres, you must show proof that you have been vaccinated or passed a negative screening.
But despite the measures 580 people per million tested positive yesterday — one per cent more than the UK rates.
In an effort to reduce the spread of infections, countries like France and Germany have issued booster jabs.
It follows criticism from European leaders and pessimistic scientists in recent weeks over the UK’s lack of restrictions and high case numbers — which peaked last month at a level 30 per cent lower than infections seen at the height of the second wave.
Sir Andrew Pollard who helped to design the AstraZeneca vaccination, however, stated last week that it is unfair to slam Britain for its high numbers of cases. Britain tests up to 10x more people than other European countries.
In July, almost all Covid restrictions were lifted in the UK as part of Freedom Day. This marked an end to social ditancing and the use of mandatory masks.
Covid infections have been trending down over the past 12 days, with the exception of Monday, which was due to a data issue one week earlier. Yesterday saw a drop in infection rates of 6.5 percent, with 37,269 cases recorded.
The Office for National Statistics estimates that around 1.1 million people in England had Covid during the week. This is the same as the previous seven-day spell, but the levelling off suggests the outbreak has peaked because fewer people infected with the virus are passing it on to others — either due to self-isolation or immunity from jabs or previous infection
The experts behind the ZOE Covid Study — which is based on reports from around 750,000 weekly contributors and more than 40,000 swabs — calculated there were 88,592 daily symptomatic Covid cases across the UK, based on data from 42,359 positive PCR and lateral flow tests taken between October 16 and 30. The study found that around a third (26,928) of cases are among double-jabbed Brits. This is an increase from 26,928 last Wednesday.
Transport for London requires Britons to cover their faces when using their services. Masks must also be worn in healthcare settings.
The Government faced calls in recent weeks from medics, scientists and Labour to bring back masks and work from home guidance — it’s ‘Plan B’ measures to suppress the virus this winter — amid rising cases.
But the Health Secretary said he did not believe the NHS was facing unsustainable pressure — the measure No10 is using to determine whether to bring the restrictions back.
To keep the virus at bay in the months ahead, the Government will focus on booster jabs for over-50s, NHS staff, and vulnerable people.
And the downward trend in cases over the last 12 days — apart from on Monday due to a data problem one week earlier — led one of the country’s top epidemiologists to claim cases have peaked in the UK for 2021.
However, Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, England’s deputy chief physician officer, warned that there are still ‘hard months’ ahead in the UK and warned that the pandemic “is not over”.
Scientists have called for restrictions in the UK to reduce infection rates, limit pressures on health services and bring down Covid death figures.
Mario Draghi, Italy’s Prime Minister, said last month that the UK had ‘abandoned any caution’ and that the high number of cases was a result. He suggested that measures should be taken gradually.
Ministers have been reassured so far by scientific modeling, which last month showed that daily cases could drop to just 5,000 without any restrictions.
But Professor Van-Tam this week urged the nation to behave responsibly and emphasised the importance of face masks — but did not outright call for their enforced return in public spaces.
Addressing the nation in a Q&A, he told BBC Breakfast: ‘Too many people believe that this pandemic is now over. Personally, I feel that there are still some difficult months ahead in the winter. It is not over.
“Christmas, and all of the darker winter months, are potentially going to prove problematic.”
When asked how another festive lockdown could be prevented he stated that it depended upon ‘how careful we are’ and UK’s vaccination drives. He urged people not to be shy about getting their flu shots and boosters when asked.
It comes as the ONS today estimated 1.1million people were infected with the virus at any time in the week to October 30 — the equivalent of one in 50.
This was roughly the same as the previous seven day spell, ending nearly three months worth of rising cases that began back in August.
Experts believe that the recent wave of Covid caused by schoolchildren returning to school has ‘likely’ reached a natural peak due to a combination vaccine immunity and previous infections.
Despite the fact that the ONS data suggests that the outbreak remains as large as it was at January’s peak, the weekly total is still the third highest ever recorded. This is despite the fact that deaths are only a fraction the level seen in the worst days of crisis.