Biden’s administration is currently preparing contingency planning in case Russia stops its crude oil or natural gas exports to Europe.
The move is part of President Joe Biden’s reassurance to European allies he will not let Vladimir Putin freeze them out this winter.
European allies worry that Putin could cut off their supply chain as a retaliation for the economic sanctions the United States promised to impose in the case of an invasion of Russia by Ukraine.
The United States is working with energy producers in Middle East, Asia and North Africa to ensure Europe has enough supplies in case Russia cuts off availability.
Russia supplies around one third of Europe’s gas needs. Germany is by far the most important buyer of Russian natural gas. It draws more than half of its gas imports from Russia against around 40% on average for the European Union, according to the EU’s statistics agency Eurostat.
American officials have also pledged harsher sanctions should Russia invade their neighbor. It will be a more aggressive approach to Russia’s aggression than that taken in 2014.
“The gradualism that was in the past has ended.” On Tuesday, a top administration official stated that this time around, they will start at the top and continue up, during a briefing call.
Allies of Europe are concerned that Vladimir Putin will cut their supply chains in retaliation to any sanctions that the United States might impose on Ukraine in case of invasion by Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attended a meeting with students in order to celebrate Russian Students Day.
Russia supplies around a third the European Union’s gas supply – more than the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
An unrest between Russia and Ukraine could cause disruption to global energy markets as Russia is second in oil production behind the United States.
Russia also exports large quantities of natural gas through its pipeline network through Ukraine to Europe. However, these exports could be seriously disrupted by a conflict or infrastructure damage.
American officials have been working for the past six to eight week to develop a global strategy that explores contingency options to divert and increase supplies of gas from different regions around the globe.
On the briefing call, senior administration officials declined to give details about the countries or companies with which they were in negotiations. They said they didn’t want to “telegraph and inform” Putin of the moves they made and also noted that the discussions are very sensitive.
However, the official stated that they were interested in companies who could boost their energy production.
The senior administrative official stated that they are looking to find suppliers who can bring in volumes into Europe by using pipelines or increasing production.
According to the official, talks are taking place at a global level and include multiple companies and countries.
Official stated, “You don’t need to ask anybody to one country or company to increase exports by significant volume, but you can get smaller volumes from multiple sources.” We can get enough gas by combining the larger picture.
American officials cautioned that Putin could be the one to suffer most if Europe cuts off access to their customers.
Remember, Russia’s oil and gas export revenue is two-thirds of its total and roughly half of Russia’s federal budget revenue. According to a senior official in the administration, this does not give Putin an advantage.
Official noted that “He’s creating a significant incentive for Europe’s diversification of their energie supplies away from Russia,”
If Russia invades Ukraine, the United States may impose an unusual export restriction to stop Russia from obtaining key components of their tech industries.
The control is designed to block the import of cutting-edge, ‘novel American’ products to Russia. This was done in an effort to deny Putin’s regime any technology that might be used in any future conflict in Ukraine.
“These export controls can be considered trade restrictions that serve broader U.S. security interests. They are used to prevent the export of U.S. products to Russia and possibly certain foreign-made products falling under U.S. Export Regulations,’ said a top administration official during Tuesday’s briefing with reporters.
Officials said the Biden administration may also opt to apply the control to restrict Russia’s access to semiconductors, and therefore making it harder for Russians to get their hands on smartphones, games consoles and tablets.
The U.S. and the EU already have sanctions on Russia’s energy, financial and defense sectors, with tensions between Moscow and Western powers raising the prospect of new economic sanctions being imposed if Russia attacks neighboring Ukraine.
White House has also suggested curbs for Russia’s top banks. It previously proposed measures to restrict Moscow’s ability convert roubles in dollars into other currencies.
Such export controls that expand U.S. sanctions beyond financial targets have only been deployed once before against Huawei, the Chinese tech giant.
The measures, implemented over fears its products were being used to spy on behalf of China’s communist government, went towards Huawei experiencing a 30 percent drop in annual revenue – its first ever.
Officials in the senior administration pointed out that Russia cannot take too much economic pain.
Putin’s ‘tolerance for economic pain, it may be higher than other leaders, but there is a threshold of pain above which we think is calculus can be influenced,’ an official said on Tuesday’s call.
A BIDEN ADMINISTRATION SETS CLASSIFIED BERIEFINGS FOR CONGRESS
Meanwhile, members of the Biden administration will hold two classified congressional briefings on Tuesday to update leadership aides and committee staff on the deteriorating situation in Ukraine, a new report reveals.
Congress will be out of session next week. Members of the Senate and House of Representatives will need to wait to get their briefings from the Administration.
While Russia is increasing its military presence along the Ukraine-Russia border, Nancy Pelosi (House Speaker) and Chuck Schumer (Senate Majority Leader) have both called for briefings in full-chamber.
John Kirby, Pentagon Spokesperson announced that 8.500 U.S. troops were on standby to be deployed to Eastern European countries during Monday’s briefing. This was as the world awaits news from Russia on whether it will invade Ukraine.
Kirby explained that although the troops had been placed on standby for a while, there was no definitive decision on whether or not they would be deployed. Kirby also stated that the group placed on alert includes intelligence and transport units.
Allies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are moving additional military equipment, including naval and air assets, into the region.
The New York Times reported that President Joe Biden may consider sending as many as 50,000 troops to Eastern Europe, the Baltic states and other countries. The plan doesn’t include U.S. military forces being sent directly into Ukraine.
Russia already maintains a military presence on the Ukrainian border, with over 100,000 troops. There are also thousands more stationed around the world as tensions rise and concern grows about a possible Russian invasion.
Two classified briefings will be held by Joe Biden’s government on Tuesday, to inform leadership aides as well as committee staff about the latest developments in Ukraine.
Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker (left), and Chuck Schumer, Senate Majority Leader (right), demanded full chamber briefings after reports surfaced that Biden might deploy up to 50,000 U.S. soldiers to the region.
Punchbowl News was informed by a Biden representative that Secretary of State Antony Blinken has already met with almost 20 legislators in six weeks. They also plan on calling more lawmakers this week.
Biden, according to the official, had a conversation December 7 with the ‘Big Four’ party leaders about Ukraine and Russia – the group consists of Pelosi, Schumer and House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell.
President met also with a bipartisan group composed of senators that just returned from Kyiv, 19 January.
Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser, held six briefings to Congress members. These included leadership as well as the leaders and ranking members on national security committees.
McConnell said Monday to CNN’s Manu Raju that he had spoken recently with Sullivan about the escalating Ukraine–Russia conflict.
There have been 9 interagency briefings to the national security commissions. Eight briefings were given for leadership, committee, personal staff and leadership. However, the leadership would still like the whole chamber to be briefed about the issue by the administration.
Numerous lawmakers continue to push for diplomatic alternatives rather than troop deployment, while others call for preemptive sanctions.
Republicans have attacked President Biden’s inaction when it comes down to sanctioning Kremlin.
John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesperson, announced Monday that 8500 U.S. troops were placed on alert. The Pentagon Spokesperson John Kirby announced Monday that 8,500 U.S. troops were on standby. He did not provide details about the units of these troops, which could be deployed to Eastern Europe.
Some people are calling on Russia to be removed from SWIFT’s banking system. This is the central facilitator for worldwide financial transactions.
The House and Senate have both been working to create legislation that would strengthen Ukraine’s defenses, and penalize Russia for the possibility of invasion.
A bipartisan group consisting of eight senators met Monday night to debate a Democrat-proposed Russia sanction bill. This was to stop Vladimir Putin invading Ukraine. There were four Democrats and four Republicans who discussed potential changes to the legislation which might win 10 more GOP members.
Politico reports that the initial talks revolved around Senate foreign relations Chair Bob Menendez’s legislation, which is referred to as “mother of all sanctions”. It authorizes severe financial penalties, which would only apply in the instance of Russian invading Ukraine.
Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan means that Republicans are skeptical about how President Obama will handle Europe’s impending conflict. Five months ago, disaster struck Afghanistan’s withdrawal. Now Congress is on high alert for any American intervention.
According to The New York Times’s reporting, NATO and Biden will respond to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s broad demands for a diplomatic option.
Three areas are on the top of Putin’s potential for compromise – assurances that Ukraine won’t enter NATO, the group’s vow not to further expand and a restoration to Russia’s influence in the region before the strategic map of Europe was redrawn in the 1990s.
Biden’s State of the Union speech is March 1st. However, the president may want to address the nation on rising tensions and Eastern Europe in the meantime. This will be especially true if the likelihood of troop deployments increases between now-and-then.
On Monday, President Biden spoke with representatives from France, Germany Germany Italy Poland and Italy in a video chat that lasted around 90 minutes.
Biden said that he had enjoyed a “very, very, very good” meeting Monday with reporters. “Total unity with all European leaders. It will be discussed later.
He declined to speak further about the current news in Europe’s worsening conflicts, claiming that the media wouldn’t report on his call for a meeting on inflation.
NATO members discussed their joint efforts to prevent further Russian aggression towards Ukraine. This included preparations for Russia to inflict severe economic consequences as well as imposing massive consequences.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the leaders had agreed to pay’severe’ costs to Russia in case of an invasion by Moscow.
He tweeted, “We agree that any additional aggression by Russia against Ukraine will have severe consequences.”
The Pentagon clarified U.S. strategy in light of reports that U.S. may consider a large deployment, possibly up to 50,000 troops.
John Kirby, Defense Department spokesperson said Monday that this was about “getting people ready for the future”. He claimed that most of these troops would be ground forces.
He assured them that they will be ready should NATO activate the NATO Response Force, (NRF), and in case of ‘deteriorating security environments’.
“There is no mission in itself, but this is about [Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin]Kirby stated that Kirby wanted to be ahead of potential activation so the units had time to prepare.
NATO Response Force, which includes approximately 40,000 troops from around the world, is composed of land, sea, and maritime components.
Kirby explained that this move sends a strong signal that NATO is on its side and ensures that allies have the capability they require to defend themselves.
As the U.S. demands preemptive sanctions to stop Russia from moving forces towards Ukraine, lawmakers continue to call for Russia’s continued buildup. Here a screen shot is taken from a Russian Defense Ministry Press Service video showing an armored vehicle driving off a railway platform after arrival in Belarus on Wednesday, January 19, 2022
He stated that troops were currently in a ‘heightened alert’ position and had no plans to deploy.
According to Austin, the ‘bulk’ of them would go to the NRF and be activated when called upon by Western defense coalition. However, Austin also stated that 8,500 troops should still be available for other contingencies.
Kirby stated that most of the standby troops are active duty military personnel. However, Kirby didn’t rule out the possibility to have reserve units assembled.
Austin directed the troops to be ready for deployment under the command of President Joe Biden.
Kirby indicated that units flagged as being possible deployed to Eastern Europe would soon be made public.
He added that “It is quite clear the Russians don’t intend right now to de-escalate.”
Ukraine arrested saboteurs “coordinated Russian special services” who planned a “series of armed assaults” to destabilize border regions
Ukraine claims it arrested Russian-backed saboteurs plotting to attack border regions in order to ‘destabilize’ the country.
According to Ukraine’s SBU security services, the ‘criminal group’ was planning a series of attacks on infrastructure in cities ‘coordinated with Russian special service’.
Two Russian citizens were among the two people arrested in raids that took place in Kharkiv close to the Russian frontier and Zhytomyr (in western Ukraine)., today.
Agents believe the duo had been recruiting men from Russia, mainly with criminal backgrounds, to participate in the attacks.
It occurs amid Russian troop buildup near Ukraine. US warns Moscow to launch false flag attacks at border regions in order to justify an invasion.
Russia announced Tuesday snap exercises that would involve 6,000 soldiers and 60 fighter jets in the vicinity of the annex Crimea.
Ukrainian security agents raided the property of a criminal gang, they claim to be planning a series border-region robberies.
In raids carried out on Tuesday, agents seized weapons, ammunition and radio frequency jammers, as well as other equipment.
Russian media reported that the military commander of the Southern Military District described the drills as a readiness check for combat. This is part of a continuing campaign to exert pressure on Ukraine, which Putin hopes will lead to security concessions.
Ukrainian agents claim that the two men arrested on Tuesday planned a string of robberies against “urban infrastructure”, including commercial properties.
According to reports, the gang was organized by two Russian citizens who recruited criminals through security companies.
Raids were conducted Tuesday on properties belonging to the two alleged organizers. Police claimed they discovered a bomb and guns, as well ammunition.
Additionally, devices that could disrupt radio communications were also discovered, including plans for robberies as well as walkie talkies which are allegedly used for communication.
According to the SBU, computers and electronic devices also were seized because they showed evidence of criminal activity.
Photographs show that officers also confiscated large amounts of cash in US dollars and Ukrainian hryvnia bills.
Ukraine claims that the Russian special forces coordinated the coordination of the crime group operating as a security firm.
Also seized were large amounts of cash in US dollars and local hryvnia money.
Boris Johnson suggests that the UK could send combat soldiers to Russia
Boris Johnson suggests British combat troops might be sent to defeat Russian military forces that threaten Ukraine. This is in response to rising tensions between Vladimir Putin, the West and Russia.
According to Prime Minister, the UK would contribute to any NATO deployment. Allies have been preparing soldiers for war and sending fighter and bomber aircraft to troubled regions.
The border with Ukraine has been occupied by an estimated 100,000 Russian troops. Intensive diplomatic efforts have not led to a decrease in tensions.
Yesterday night, the United States deployed 8,500 troops to high alert in order to quickly deploy to Europe.
According to Prime Minister, MPs can contribute to any NATO new deployment. Allies have prepared troops and sent fighter and warships to this troubled area.
Denmark will send a frigate across the Baltic Sea to dispatch F-16 fighter aircrafts to Lithuania. Spain has sent ships to Lithuania and Spain is looking at sending fighter jets. France is ready to send troops and fighter planes from France to Romania. The Netherlands also plans to launch two F-35 fighter pilots into Bulgaria starting in April.
Johnson, in a House of Commons statement, warned that the worst thing could happen in Ukraine and his country’s resistance would be determined and tenacious. The bloodshed would be comparable to what happened in Bosnia and Chechnya.
He said: “The British Army is leading the NATO battle group in Estonia, and should Russia invade Ukraine, we will look to support any Nato deployments to defend our European allies.”
“We cannot trade away the vision for a Europe free and whole that emerged over those remarkable years between 1989-1991. It was the one thing that saved our continent from being divided by the Iron Curtain.
“We won’t reopen the divide by agreeing that overturns the European security order will be done because Russia has given a gun to Ukraine’s head.
He added: ‘If Russia pursues this path, many Russian mothers’ sons will not be coming home.’