Britain’s economy will vastly outstrip that of France in the next 15 years, according to a landmark report published today.
According to an independent think-tank, the Centre for Economics and Business Research(CEBR), the UK is enjoying a boom in tech investments and economic reforms under the Thatcher era give it a distinct advantage over its historical rival.
Its latest World Economic League Table, which looks at the prospects for all 193 countries, forecasts the UK economy will be 16 per cent larger than France’s by 2036. The UK’s is currently estimated to be worth £2.1 trillion, 3.6 per cent larger than France’s.
The research will further strengthen Britain’s case in the battle with France for bankers and other highly qualified staff.
Britain’s economy will vastly outstrip that of France in the next 15 years, according to a landmark report published today
Douglas McWilliams, deputy chairman of CEBR, told The Mail on Sunday: ‘Tech is the dynamic factor in economic growth and Britain is investing more in this area than France and Germany put together.
“Between half to three-quarters (or more) of the UK’s economic growth is due to the technology sector. By contrast, Germany has a hefty legacy economy, based on car manufacturing and similar.’
The UK is the world’s fifth-largest economy and is estimated to have a gross domestic product of £36,357 per head.
This report forecasts that Britain will fall to the sixth spot behind India in 2026. The position it currently holds is predicted to continue until 2036.
France is currently sixth in the world’s largest economy. It will fall to 7th next year, and then stay there.
Paris was hopeful that Brexit would bring an exodus from UK financial jobs. EY reports that less than 8,000 of the 8000 posts in London have been transferred to the Continent.
Sunday’s Mail revealed that the European Central Bank was trying to increase this number, and threatened to take licenses from banks who fail to transfer substantial financial assets or staff to the Eurozone.
Mr McWilliams said Brexit allows Britain to retain Thatcher’s economic legacy but warned tech firms may find it harder to recruit talented workers from overseas.
The CEBR report notes that Brexit had cost the City no more than ten per cent of its business, despite dire forecasts from politicians and commentators in the run-up to Britain’s exit from the EU.
The UK’s is currently estimated to be worth £2.1 trillion, 3.6 per cent larger than France’s
Although the UK was one of the worst economic hits by the pandemic, it is expected to rebound this year.
The MoS surveyed economists and they expect UK growth to be 4.7% next year. This follows a 7.3% increase this year. In 2020, the economy saw a 9.4 percent decline. This was its worst performance in a century.
The science, technology, and grocery sectors are expected to prosper next year. However, the recovery in travel and hospitality will depend on Covid restrictions.
Britain’s biggest industries include financial services, consumer goods and electrical engineering, while France’s leading business sectors include manufacturing of machinery, chemicals and textiles. Both countries are leaders in producing aircraft and motor cars.
While admitting the path of the world economy is hard to predict, the CEBR suggests that by 2036, China, currently in second place, will have the world’s largest economy, overtaking the United States.
India will move up to the third spot, while Germany will remain at fourth. Japan will move up to fifth, from its current third-place position.