According to a newly published study, climate change will likely have a significant impact on the world’s crop staples, including soybeans, wheat, and corn, as soon as 2030. This is’several decades earlier than previously thought’.
The research — stemming from NASA scientists — notes that in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, corn crop yields will drop a staggering 24 percent.
According to the study, corn is considered “the most important global crop in terms total production and food safety in many regions.”
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Soybeans as well as rice will be affected, but models developed by researchers show varying levels of impact. They range from a decline in 2 percent to as low at 21 percent.
Climate change will have a profound impact on crop staples like soybeans, wheat, and corn as soon as the next decade.
In a high level of greenhouse gas emissions, corn yields will fall 24 percent by 2030
The models show varying degrees of impact on rice and soybeans. While the yields of wheat crop could increase, they will not last forever.
Rice could see a drop of 23 percent growth to as low as 2 percent growth, or as low at a 15% decline.
The researchers concluded that wheat crops could still grow 17 percent.
We introduce the concept of climate impacts emergence to the field agriculture impacts. This highlights the fact that major shifts will occur in global crop production due to climate change in the next 20 years. [years]The authors noted that this was several decades earlier than the estimates based upon previous model projections.
The researchers used advanced climate modeling and agricultural modeling to examine changes in yields. They considered several factors such as projected increases in temperature, changing rainfall patterns, and an increase in carbon dioxide concentrations.
‘We did not expect to see such a fundamental shift, as compared to crop yield projections from the previous generation of climate and crop models conducted in 2014,’ said the study’s lead author Jonas Jägermeyr, a crop modeler and climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute, in a statement.
Jägermeyr was especially concerned at the projected decline in corn, adding, ‘a 20% decrease from current production levels could have severe implications worldwide.’
The study’s lead author Jonas Jägermeyr was especially concerned at the projected decline in corn, adding, ‘a 20% decrease from current production levels could have severe implications worldwide’
Rice could see a drop of 23 percent to 21% growth, or as low a 15% decline. The researchers found that wheat crops could grow 17%.
The study shows that global wheat crop yields are expected to increase, but it will be uneven over time and not last forever.
South Asia, Mexico, and parts of South America will be in a position to grow the crop for longer periods of time.
NASA stated that NASA believes the gains may begin to ‘level out mid-century’.
The study shows that while global wheat crop yields will rise, they will be uneven and not last forever. South Asia, Mexico, South America and parts South America will be able grow the crop longer than certain parts of the U.S. and Canada. NASA stated that the gains could ‘level off’ by mid-century.
‘Even under optimistic climate change scenarios, where societies enact ambitious efforts to limit global temperature rise, global agriculture is facing a new climate reality,’ Jägermeyr added.
“And with the interconnectedness in the global food system all impacts in any one region’s breadbasket will have an international impact.”
To reach their conclusions, the researchers used climate model simulations from International Climate Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6 (CMIP6) and simulations using 12 crop models from Columbia University’s Agricultural Model Intercomparison & Improving Project (AgMIP).
The five CMIP6 models compared Earth’s atmosphere to greenhouse gases emissions through the year 2100. The MgMIP models were based upon real-life biological responses to crops in indoor and outdoors experiments.
Each crop was represented by approximately 240 simulations.
Alex Ruane (co-author of the study) said, “What we’re doing it is driving crop simulators that are effectively cultivating virtual crops day by day, powered with a supercomputer and then looking to the year-by -decade change at each location in the world.”
The researchers also examined the effects of higher CO2 on photosynthesis, water retention, and nutrition.
Researchers also examined the impact of higher CO2 on photosynthesis and water retention. They found that it would be beneficial, but often at a cost to nutrition, particularly for wheat.
According to the study, the scenarios suggest that “current food production systems will soon experience fundamentally changed risk profiles.” However, researchers note that this could change with different inputs such as economic incentives, changing farming methods, and breeding harder crops.
The study was published in Nature Food this week.
The study is being done as governments from all over the world gather in Glasgow, Scotland for the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26).
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said he thinks the world is likely to miss the 2.7°F (1.5°C) climate change target, as set out in the aims of the Paris Agreement.
Earlier this year, a significant portion of the globe dealt with a crippling heat dome exacerbated by climate change, causing temperatures to get as high as 114°F in Italy, Spain and Greece and possibly resulting in the death of 1 billion sea creatures in the Pacific Ocean.
Lancet, a medical journal, stated last month that climate change is causing health problems. This creates a ‘code Red’ situation in which droughts can impact food production and rising temperatures can lead to diseases such as malaria and cholera spreading across the globe.