Covid cases should slump in November by around 85 per cent to just 5,000 per day by Christmas even without Plan B restrictions, according to modelling seen by the Government.

After seeing projections showing that infections are declining rapidly over the next few days, ministers are expected to refrain from imposing restrictions like mandatory facemasks and advice on working from home. 

One model, by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), suggests that cases will soon peak and then fall steeply in the winter months, even without the Government’s Plan B. Other unpublished models have also shown similar drops, with experts indicating that cases could fall to around 5,000 cases a day before Christmas, The Telegraph reported.

Professor John Edmunds, a SAGE scientist, told the paper that when he was doing the work two weeks ago, the Health secretary had made it clear that there was no plan to introduce Plan B anytime soon.

“Our model predicted that cases would start to fall sometime in the autumn. The model does suggest that cases could rise again in spring due to increased contacts and waning immunity.

It is a record 325,000 booster jabs were given in one day. More than 800,000 people received their third dose over three days, as long as there was no queue at the centres. 

After daily cases surpassed 50,000 last week, and hospital admissions topped 1,000, the Government is under increasing pressure to implement Plan B. 

Much of the current wave is being driven by high case rates in children, with scientists expecting the ‘children’s epidemic’ to run out of steam soon as immunity in youngsters increases, both through infection and vaccination. 

A vaccination bus offers walk-in Covid vaccinations in London, August 6, 2021

 A vaccination bus offers walk-in Covid vaccinations in London, August 6, 2021

It comes as a record 325,000 people got their booster jab in a single day, while more than 800,000 people over three days had a third jab as queues again formed at centres across the country

It’s a record 325,000 booster shots in one day. More than 800,000 people received their third jab over three days. Queues recurred at all the centres across the country as more people queued up for their third jab.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson

Health Secretary Sajid Javid

Boris Johnson, Prime Minister, visits a London vaccine centre, left, and Sajid Javid, Health Secretary, during a press conference in Downing Street. Right

Is Plan B imminent? Health chiefs are gauging support for an ‘immediate rollout’ of working from home and Covid passports – but Rishi insists that it’s not necessary at the moment’ because Covid cases have fallen by 11% in a week 

Rishi Sunak insisted that there was no need to implement Plan B to reduce Covid cases. This was after health officials discussed whether there should be an ‘immediate rollout of tougher measures’ to combat a sudden increase in cases.

The Chancellor said that data does not support the idea of bringing back work from home or introducing mandatory Covid passports.

After it was reported by the BBC that the UK Health Security Agency had contacted local authorities to get their support for the immediate rollout the winter plan-plan B’, his comments were made to Andrew Marr.

An ‘official – sensitive’ document seen by the Observer sought opinions from the leaders and chief executives of councils across England to be fed to the Cabinet Office before then end of the day.

Mr Sunak stated today that “the data does not suggest that we should immediately move to Plan B.”

A leading Government scientist however stated that’some sort of Plan B’ was necessary immediately.

Professor Adam Finn, who is a member of the Joint Committee of Vaccination and Immunisation, (JCVI), stated that Covid-19 hospital deaths and admissions are increasing, and warned against complacency in a ‘worsening’ situation.

Boris Johnson the Prime Minister, who resisted calls from health leaders for tighter controls despite rising numbers of cases, stated that vaccines would get the country through winter and out the pandemic. 

Yesterday, Department of Health bosses reported a further 39,962 cases – down by eleven per cent in a week. However, the number died from Covid rose to 72 on October 27th from 57. This is a 26 percent increase. 

Labour stated that it now supports the immediate reintroduction restrictions, despite Sir Keir Sternmer saying on Thursday the debate about which plan to follow was the “wrong focus”. 

Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of India, told BBC’s Andrew Marr that there was no need for Plan B to reduce Covid cases. There are reports that health chiefs have been discussing whether there should be an ‘immediate rollout’ of tougher measures. 

The Observer reported that on Friday, the UK Health Security Agency contacted local officials to assess their support for the immediate rollout – Plan B – of the winter plans. 

NHS medical director Professor Stephen Powis said infection rates are rising and that NHS England has already administered five million booster jabs. On Sunday, more than 800,000 people received their booster in the last 72 hours.

In recent days, the Government launched a media blitz encouraging people to get boosters and urging those who aren’t yet vaccinated to get jabbed.

But Professor Adam Finn, who is on the Joint Committee of Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), has warned that the vaccination programme will not be enough to bring current infection rates under control and warned against complacency in what he said is a ‘worsening’ situation.

He suggested that people should be testing their own abilities, wearing masks, and avoiding crowds in enclosed spaces to prevent a’real meltdown’.

Sajid Javid, Health Secretary, said this week that the number of new cases could exceed 100,000 per day. However Downing Street insists that there is still sufficient capacity in the NHS and that Plan B would only be activated if it is under’significant pressure’.

Plan B provides guidance from home and the use of face masks.

Sunak was asked if it was the right time to implement Plan B to combat coronavirus. He said that at the moment, the data doesn’t suggest that we should immediately move to Plan B.

He stated to BBC One’s Andrew Marr Show that the Prime Minister just said that they’re actually looking at the data every day, as you would expect.

“We are monitoring everything, but at this moment the data doesn’t suggest that we should immediately move to Plan B. But, of course, we will keep an eye and make sure that the plans are ready.

Rishi Sunak pledges £6 BILLION for the NHS to tackle Covid backlog: Chancellor will unveil cash injection in Wednesday’s budget with more diagnostic scans, shorter waits for surgery and improved IT all promised

Rishi Sunak is expected to unveil a £6billion package of funding for the NHS to ease the growing backlog and undo the enormous damage inflicted during the Covid pandemic in Wednesday’s budget.

The Chancellor will announce the funding for the NHS capital to support the goal of delivering around 30% more elective activity between 2024-25 and 2024-25 than pre-Covid levels.

The Treasury argued that this is equivalent to millions of additional scans, checks, and procedures for non-emergency patient.

This comes amid warnings by doctors that backlogs of over five million patients awaiting non-emergency treatment are ‘dangerously close to crippling’ the health system.

In a bid to address the backlog of people waiting for checks, tests and scans, and help get waiting lists down, some £2.3billion will be used to try to transform diagnostic services.

Conservatives are likely to be concerned about the additional funding as they are already angry at the lack of tax cuts that would help workers and businesses struggling after 18 months’ of shutdowns.

In September NHS bosses were given a £30billion handout as Prime Minister Boris Johnson clobbered Britons with their highest tax burden since the Second World War. The health service will receive the vast majority of the £36billion raised by a National Insurance hike over the next three years, with social care receiving a £5.3billion slice.

Maggie Throup, vaccines minister, stated that Plan A is ‘working and where we need it to be’.

Ms. Throup was asked where case numbers would need to be to get before the public is asked to work from their home. LBC asked her: ‘The public has been very patient in doing everything we asked them to.

“And I believe Plan A has actually opened people’s lives and that is so important because if they do need to take additional measures, I’m certain they’ll have enjoyed exactly the freedoms I’ve been able offer them at this point.

“Plan A is functioning, as I stated, the data right at this time shows that Plan A’s working.”

The Government launched a media campaign encouraging people to get a booster shot and encouraging those who are not yet vaccinated.

Amanda Pritchard, chief executive of NHS England, tweeted Sunday afternoon: “Yesterday was a record day for Covid booster jabs: More than 325,000 people receiving vital protection.

“In the past three days, more than 800,000 people received their booster jabs.”

Prof Finn stated that vaccines can be very effective in keeping people from getting seriously ill. However, they are not effective in stopping infections from spreading or stopping them from happening altogether.

He said, “They do have an impact on that, but they are not by themselves sufficient at the moment to stop the spread of the disease under control.”

He stated that he believes people should continue to try to avoid contact and transmission and to get vaccinated if they want to stop this rise from getting worse.

Prof Finn stated that despite the best efforts, the vaccine program alone is not enough to control the situation.

“We need to have people using the lateral flow tests, avoiding contact in enclosed spaces with large numbers of people, and using masks if we are going to stop the rise and get things under control quickly enough to prevent a meltdown in winter.”

His comments were made after a prominent Covid-19 adviser said he was’very afraidful’ of another ‘lockdown Christmas’. He urged the public not to transmit the virus and urged them to do all they can to help.

Professor Peter Openshaw is a member the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, (Nervtag). He stated that death rates and case numbers are currently ‘unacceptable.

He stated that measures such as mask-wearing and working from home are important to stop the spread of Covid.

Prof Openshaw advised people to “take matters into their own hands”, telling BBC Breakfast on Saturday that they should not wait for government policy.

Dr Katherine Henderson, president of Royal College of Emergency Medicine, stated that people should try to reduce the need for healthcare resources. Sky News’ Trevor Phillips heard her say that they didn’t enter the pandemic in a good place for emergency care. There weren’t enough beds at the time.

Modelling by SAGE predicted that the combination of vaccine-acquired immunity and natural protection would be enough to keep hospital rates below levels seen in the second wave. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, the group estimated that daily Covid hospital admissions would not rise above 1,500. More optimistic models had them peaking at below 1,000 in winter. The above charts are based on modelling by Warwick University and look at how quickly people go back to pre-pandemic social contacts. It was based on the booster doses given 'sustained' immunity

SAGE models predicted that the combination vaccination-acquired immunity, natural protection would suffice to keep hospital rates below the levels of the second wave. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios the group predicted that daily Covid hospital admissions wouldn’t rise above 1,500. They would be below 1,000 in winter, according to more optimistic models. These charts are based upon Warwick University modelling and show how quickly people can return to pre-pandemic social connections. It was based upon booster doses that conferred’sustained immunity’.

Other SAGE modelling took into account 'repeated' waning from booster doses, and projected that hospital admissions could breach levels seen during the second wave in January under the worst-case projections

Other SAGE modelling also took into consideration’repeated’ waning from booster dosing and projected that hospitalizations could exceed levels seen in January’s second wave.

Only 4.5 million (green line) of the 9.3million English eligible people (blueline) have received the crucial third dosage. Ministers have urged people to come forward for their inoculations

“The problem with healthcare is that they are getting worse. We need everyone to be as careful as we can with our healthcare resources and to reduce the demand for it.

“So, if there are 8,000 people in hospital with Covid, then if those patients were not there, there would be another 8,000 beds in our system.

“So every bed that is filled by a patient suffering from Covid in a sense, it’s a hospital bed with an avoidable disease. That’s what we need people’s attention if we’re to clear the elective backlog.”

The Observer reported on Friday that the UK Health Security Agency, (UKHSA), contacted local authorities to ask for their support for the ‘immediate rolling out of the winter plan – plan B’.

A spokeswoman for UKHSA stated that they don’t comment on leaks. It is part of the UKHSA’s role, to advise the Government on the ongoing response.

The UKHSA recognizes and continues to acknowledge the important role played by local authorities and their directors for public health in managing pandemics.

“We will continue to consult them and learn from their experience to help us protect the nation’s healthcare. 

Could the Army be the solution? If the NHS is at risk of becoming overwhelmed this winter, 4,000 troops will be on standby to assist it.

According to the Defence Secretary, four thousand troops are ready to assist the NHS in a winter crisis.

Ben Wallace said they are ‘ready to help’ carry out tasks such as administering vaccines, testing for Covid, driving ambulances and providing general support in hospitals.

This is one of the most alarming signs yet that ministers are preparing for a winter crisis in the NHS.

Four thousand troops are on standby to aid the NHS deal with a winter crisis, the Defence Secretary (pictured) said last night

Four thousand troops are available to assist the NHS in a winter crisis, said the Defence Secretary (pictured).

Scientists are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of seasonal pressures, coronavirus, flu, and other seasonal pressures on hospitals already stretched in the coming weeks.

Yesterday, it was revealed that ministers in England are looking at restructuring the NHS waiting list to address concerns that it is becoming overcrowded.

Many obese patients are currently awaiting minor operations, but have been told that they must lose weight before being removed from waiting lists.

Last week, the Royal Cornwall Hospitals Trust declared an emergency. There were up to 100 patients awaiting treatment in the emergency department, and 25 ambulances parked outside.

Managers reached out to staff to ask them to work more to handle the ‘intense’ pressures. Families were asked to contact wards to see if they could offer support to someone who is waiting for homecare to be discharged sooner. 

Ben Wallace said they are ‘ready to help’ carry out tasks such as administering vaccines, testing for Covid, driving ambulances and providing general support in hospitals

Ben Wallace stated that they are available to assist in tasks such as administering vaccines, testing Covid, driving ambulances, and general support in hospitals.

Numerous Scottish health boards are appealing for additional military support to help them deal with the high demand and to roll out a booster vaccine.

Speaking in Scotland, Mr Wallace stated that “We’ve got plenty.” [of armed forces personnel available]In winter, we have thousands of military personnel on standby, mainly because we have had to deal with floods and other things.

“We have already put on standby some like 4,000-plus people, across the entire United Kingdom.”

He promised that more support would be provided in Scotland if necessary. [the Armed Forces]All are citizens of the United Kingdom. Nicola Sturgeon may be SNP, but if the people in Scotland require the support of defense, they will get it. However, he cautioned that military personnel cannot be used as an excuse for devolved governments’ policy failures. It will only be available for the ‘next few weeks’ or as long as the pandemic persists, but it should not be expected to be extended beyond that.

Meanwhile, the UK’s top gynaecologist has warned that the NHS maternity services are at an all-time low point.

Meanwhile, the UK’s top gynaecologist warned last night that NHS maternity services are near breaking point

The UK’s top gynaecologist has warned that the NHS’s maternity service is at an all-time low point.

Dr Edward Morris, president of Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists, stated that they are becoming increasingly concerned about the enormous pressures facing their maternity staff this season if things continue as they are.

“With the rising number of Covid-19 cases, the NHS may soon find itself in a position where it is unable or unwilling to provide the care it needs or deal with the enormous backlog that has already been built up.”

According to him, many women and girls with gynaecological problems are on long waiting lists with ‘no sign of an end’.

Dr Katherine Henderson, president of Royal College of Emergency Medicine, stated that they are already struggling to cope.

“This is not something that will happen in the next few months. We are already in a terrible position where we have large queues for ambulances with vulnerable patients waiting to be offloaded into hospitals and other patients waiting to be picked by the ambulance.

Sky News reported that she said: “The system has become extremely busy. We are already at the point where you don’t get an immediate response when you dial 999.

Evidence that boosters can prevent a disaster: Data from Israel about the effects of the third Covid jab fuels hope that Britain can avoid a winter health crisis

Hopes were raised last night that Britain could avoid a winter health crisis as data from Israel shows booster jabs can significantly reduce cases and hospitalisations.

The country, which has been a leader in vaccinations, introduced boosters when immunity from the initial two jabs began waning in the summer.

A third shot has been given to almost half of the population. Hospitalisations dropped by half last week compared with the previous month.

The country, which has led the way in vaccinations, rolled out boosters when immunity from the first two jabs began to wane in the summer

The country, which has been a leader in vaccinations, introduced boosters when immunity from the initial two jabs began waning in the summer.

Cases also dropped to 1,200 – around five times lower than in September.

It will be a welcome development for Health Secretary Sajid javid, who is intensifying efforts to increase the booster programme. 

Amanda Pritchard (chief executive of the NHS) yesterday said that Saturday was the busiest date for Covid booster jabs. More than 325,000 patients received their third dose.

Almost half of its population has now been given a third shot and last week, hospitalisations had halved compared to the previous month

A third shot has been given to almost half of the population. Last week, hospitalisations were halved when compared with the previous month.

Hopes were raised last night that Britain could avoid a winter health crisis as data from Israel shows booster jabs can significantly reduce cases and hospitalisations

There were hope last night that Britain could avoid a winter-related health crisis. According to data from Israel, booster jabs can significantly lower hospitalisations and cases.

However, the rate of people taking up booster doses has been slow. Only the over-50s and immunocompromised are currently eligible. 

Patients will need to wait six months for their next dose. In an effort to speed up the process, NHS chiefs will allow eligible patients to book their third jab one month earlier.

Yesterday’s figures reveal that Covid has killed 72 people and there are now 39,962 more cases.

Meanwhile, Mr Javid is looking to make getting the jab a ‘condition of employment’ for NHS staff – but there are fears it could spark a backlash.

According to the Department of Health, boosters are available for those who are eligible. It also stated that England has administered over 5million booster jabs.