London’s Covid outbreak is slowing down, just one month after Omicron was introduced. This is according to an app that tracks symptoms and sparks new hopes for a capital-wide epidemic.
Researchers at King’s College London have estimated the decline in cases to be 33% after 33,000 people were deemed to have contracted the virus on January 3. This compares to 49,000 the week prior.
Their findings — based on three quarters of a million weekly reports and 68,000 swabs in the country — add to a growing body of evidence that the worst may be over in London.
Any peak in infections in the capital — which was first to be struck by the fourth wave — suggests that the rest of the country may soon follow suit and also see its Covid crisis ease.
Claire Steves (a doctor who is also involved in the ZOE data science study) said that although there has been a slowing down in London’s cases, it wasn’t enough to say if these had reached their peak. The return of school could lead to more outbreaks, she warned.
These results are consistent with those from the Office for National Statistics. They found that while one-tenth of Londoners were infected on New Years Eve, there was evidence that the infection is increasing.
Official statistics also indicate that London is experiencing a flatlining of cases with 222.558 infected yesterday. That’s a mere change to 22,727 infections one week ago. The number of infections is many thousand less than that recorded at the highest level on December 22, when it was 27,799
But some scientists say it is hard to tell what is happening in the capital because of the holiday period, when up to four million people — or half the city’s population — leave to go ‘home’ for Christmas.
Most figures are also yet to cover the period after New Year’s Eve, when celebrations were allowed to go ahead unimpeded by restrictions — meaning the virus could have spread further.
Covid testing data from the capital shows that the number of PCRs carried out has fallen to about 500,000 a day, but the positivity rate — the proportion that detect the virus — is still heading upwards.
Boris Johnson has shown his courage and is not proposing any restrictions to England like his counterparts from Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. This, he says, has earned him the praise of Conservative MPs. The Prime Minister said he believes the country can ‘ride out’ the wave.
But amid a crisis in hospitals — with 24 out of 137 or 17 per cent declaring critical incidents — because so many staff are off sick, there is mounting pressure for self-isolation to be cut to five days following France and the US.
Researchers say that the majority of cases are transmitted within two days. However, experts from the Government warn against cutting quarantine as it can lead to people being sent back to work if they have not recovered.
Today, King’s College London scientists suggested that the number of cases in London was also peaking. The scientists said that they saw a drop of a third in a matter of days, suggesting hope for the end of this outbreak. To estimate the extent of the disease, the figures are based on the weekly reports of three quarters to a million individuals across the country.
The app estimates that Covid cases increased eight percent nationally last week. According to them, there has been a decrease in the rise in infections in London.
They reported that cases are starting to decline in the 18- to 35-year old age group after spiralling to new records. They were seeing an increase in infections among older people who are at greater risk of the virus.
The study — also run by health data science company ZOE — said nationally Britons suffering from a cold were more likely to have Covid (blue line) than another respiratory disease (orange line)
According to some scientists, testing data suggests that the number of cases in the capital is still high. They say that while the number of tests done has fallen, meaning fewer cases can be spotted, the postivity rate — the proportion of swabs that spot the virus — is still rising suggesting the outbreak has not yet peaked
UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) figures show Covid cases in Omicron hotspot London are now only going up in people aged 60 and above. Graph showing: Case rate per 100,000 for people 60 years and older (yellow and red lines). The rate of cases has started to fall in those under 60, but it is still high for older people who are more at risk.
Figures from the UK Health Security Agency show that confirmed infections fell week-on-week in seven days up to December 30, the most recent date for which regional data are available. This is a result of people ranging from 59 years old and below. Graph: Week-on-week growth rate in cases for under-60s and 60-year-olds. The rate of growth in the over-60s is slower and cases are declining in those under 60.
King’s College London scientists found that Covid was being caught by 208.471 people in the United Kingdom, an 8 percent increase on the previous figure of 192.290.
The over-75s are the most susceptible to the virus and the cases have been rising quickly, indicating that hospital pressure could be increasing.
These infections were most prevalent in the 18- to 35-year olds. Omicron was able to reverse this trend.
Covid is very likely in the United States if you have cold-life symptoms. The virus was confirmed by 51% of the people who tested positive.
ZOE’s London estimates were built from daily reports, tests and information provided by people who indicated that they had lived in London when they signed-up for the app.
ZOE says it is not aware how many users have updated their London location via the app.
That means some submissions from contributors that went on holidays and did not update their locations may have been incorrectly included in London’s figures.
A spokeswoman said: ‘We report figures based on people’s home location and we believe that the other surveys do this too.’
Official figures indicate that hospital admissions have been increasing nationally. However, there are signs in London of a slowing down.
The Covid wards are seeing an increase in patients by one- to two percent each day, as opposed to the 15% seen a week earlier.
Dr Steves said: ‘It’s good news that the number of daily new cases has slowed for now. ZOE Covid Study data indicates that the slowdown is due to cases in London, and younger age groups.
‘However, it’s worrying to see cases increasing in the over 75 age group. They are at greatest risk for being infected by Covid and should be protected.
She added: ‘It’s too early to know if cases have truly peaked in London, as schools are yet to reopen after the holidays. Over the course of the pandemic, we have seen schools close to their holidays leading to an increase in infection rates.
“The healthcare and health systems are already at great risk. Therefore, we must all take responsibility to stop the spread. It could include regular testing, wearing masks and avoiding busy, crowded areas, getting booster shots, or meeting outside.
ONS figures published yesterday — regarded as the most reliable indicator of the UK’s outbreak because they use random sampling of 100,000 people — suggested cases were also dropping in London.
Sarah Crofts, chief ONS analyst said that there are signs suggesting a slowing down of infection in London during the week before New Years Eve.
“But, it’s too soon to say that this trend is changing overall. Our data is constantly changing rapidly and we will monitor it closely.
Separate data from the Government’s dashboard — based on daily centralised testing — shows that while Covid cases are no longer rising in young and middle-aged Londoners, they are going up in over-60s, who are most vulnerable to the virus.
Sir Chris Whitty, Sir Patrick Vallance and Sir Chris Whitty said Tuesday that it was premature to declare London’s crisis over. The trajectory meant hospital pressures would likely worsen in the weeks ahead.
However, other experts expect the trend in over-60s to follow that of younger adults and begin falling in the next week or so, mirroring the trend in South Africa — the first country in the world to fall victim to the variant, where infections are now in freefall.
MailOnline spoke to Professor David Livermore of University of East Anglia. Livermore said infection numbers were ‘bumpy’ over Christmas due to delays in reporting and fewer tests being performed.
He stated that the “rate at which the under-60s are falling” had reached its peak and was now convincingly declining.
‘This pattern of a short sharp peak is what you would expect from Omicron’s increased transmissibility [and]This is also in line with South African experiences.
Already, the growth rates suggest an increase in infection rates among older adults. Professor Livermore said, “I would expect an identical peak and fall, within one week or thereabouts among the over-60s.”
London cases fell 10% overall from 27,820 Dec 23 to 25,038, as per the most current official statistics.
According to government data, the number of positive test results had declined in the weeks leading up Christmas. There was a small dip in the following days, but the trend has since resumed.
MailOnline revealed Tuesday that cases are now in decline in 2/3 of London’s neighborhoods.
It prompted ‘Professor Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson — an influential No10 adviser whose grim death projections spooked ministers into adopting draconian restrictions back in spring 2020 — to say he is ‘cautiously optimistic’ that the capital’s cases were plateauing, and could fall nationally within as little as a week.
The raw numbers of cases are not reliable because there are fewer tests being performed and the positive rate isn’t slowing down.
But, other figures reveal that London’s hospitalization rate is already declining.
Ministers are thought to closely monitor admissions in London. The 400-a-day threshold is thought to represent a tipping point, and requires national intervention. London’s role as the Omicron crisis canary has made London a key player in the mine.
Recent data indicates that daily hospital admissions in capital are declining, with a drop of 7.22 percent from 374 on Dec 26 to 347 January 2. The latest data available shows this. For four days, they were just above 400
Boris Johnson last night seemed to be unable to adopt another lockdown. He affirmed the possibility of returning “closer” normality in a matter weeks.
The Prime Minister refused to increase Omicron’s restrictions. His counterparts in Wales and Scotland did the same. However, the Prime Minister was able to keep his cool and not introduce new restrictions over holidays. That won him praise from Tory MPs.
But 24 NHS trusts have now declared ‘critical incidents’ due to staff shortages and rising Covid admissions, it was revealed today.
Grant Shapps revealed that another four sites hit the panic key overnight. That means approximately a fifth (137) of England’s trusts are now saying they might not be in a position to offer critical care for the coming weeks.
The Transport Secretary, however, slammed the alerts and said: “It is not unusual for hospitals to become critical during winter.” However, he acknowledged that there were’very real and serious pressures’.
The full list of affected trusts has not been released by officials. However, the NHS sites in Blackpool, Plymouth, and Bristol have raised alarm. Non-urgent procedures have been cancelled by health officials and heart attack victims have been asked to travel to the hospital on their own.
Trusts declaring critical incidents — the highest level of alert — can ask staff on leave or on rest days to return to wards, and enables them to receive help from nearby hospitals.
Data suggests that at least 5,000 Covid “patients” in England are not primarily hospitalized for viruses. Nearly HALF the newly occupied beds during most recent week were occupied by cases of ‘incidental.
MailOnline’s Deputy Health Editor, Connor Boyd
According to NHS statistics, as the Omicron variant of super-mild continues to inundate the country, as many as 5,000 Covid victims may have been admitted in hospitals in England.
Latest data shows so-called ‘incidental’ cases — those who test positive after admission for something else, such as a broken leg — made up a third of coronavirus inpatient numbers on December 28.
There were only 8,300 Covid-infected people being treated at hospitals in England, and 2,750 were not receiving primary care (33%)
More up-to-date statistics from the Government’s Covid dashboard show that, as of Wednesday, there were 15,600 beds occupied by people infected with the virus.
Because the NHS has a backdated breakdown, it is unclear how many current patients have been referred to Covid. It only covers December 28.
However, even though incidental cases account for only a third, that means at most 5,000 people who have been diagnosed as coronavirus sufferers aren’t seriously ill.
Experts say there is reason to believe the share of incidentals will continue to rise as Omicron pushes England’s infection rates to record numbers, with one in 15 people estimated to have had Covid on New Year’s Eve.
In South Africa — ground zero of the Omicron outbreak — up to 60 per cent of Covid patients were not admitted primarily for the virus at the height of the crisis there.
An independent analysis of NHS data showed that 45% of newly occupied beds by Covid patients during the last week of December was not solely due to illness with the virus.
It comes as two dozen NHS trusts declared ‘critical incidents’ amid staggering staffing shortages caused by sky-high infection rates, indicating that they may be unable to provide vital care in the coming weeks.
One in ten workers are off and 183,000 Brits are being sent into isolation every day on average, prompting calls for the isolation period to be cut to five days.
This is the ratio of patients admitted to hospital for Covid compared with those who were admitted later and found positive. The data covers the week between December 21 and December 28, when were around 2,100 additional beds occupied by the virus in England — of which 1,150 were primary illness (55 per cent). This suggests that only 45 per cent of the Covid-infected were not considered to be seriously ill, but were included in the official statistics. The South East of England had 66% of non-Covid patients, while the East of England was 51% and London was 48%. Critics claim that these figures don’t account for discharges which can skew data. They do however contribute to the increasing trend.
Recent figures reveal that there have been fewer hospital beds in England this winter than before Covid. On average, 89,097 acute and general beds were opened each day during the week up to December 26. Of these, 77,901 beds were occupied. The NHS looked after more patients during the week of December 26, 2018, and 2017.
Although Covid hospitalisations in England are on the rise, they still represent half of what was last January. Also, ventilation is being used by far fewer patients than it was then.
A total of 24 out of 137 NHS Trusts in England have declared critical incidents — or 17.5 per cent — due to soaring staff absences amid the Omicron outbreak. Below are the names of trusts who have publically declared such incidents to assist with winter pressures
For the past two weeks, there have been more than 100,000 positive Covid test results in England daily. The number of people in hospitals with this virus remains at a fraction the rate seen last winter. However, deaths are still low.
Patients primarily receiving treatment for the flu are seeing a decrease in Covid bed occupancy. This has happened sharply since mid December. The NHS breakdown can only be seen up until December 28.
An incidental patient was one in three Covid patients in England on this date. The proportion of Covid patients who are primarily covid-ill is on the rise, but the incidence rate is also rising
MailOnline spoke with Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University. Spiegelhalter is a prominent statistician and said the increase in incidental infections reflected the large number of current infections.
The doctor added that “the increase in incidental Covid patient could be partly due to the higher rate of patients catching Covid in hospital.”
“But other evidence suggests that Omicron is more mild than Delta. It can, however, still cause severe illness in some individuals.
Yesterday’s official data indicates that 15,659 Covid hospitalized patients were in English hospitals. That is up 51% in just a single week.
This is less than half what was at peak in January, when 33,000 people were admitted. Ministers have also seen an increase in incidental cases which has led to them feeling confident that they are not subject to any additional restrictions.
Tomorrow, the NHS will publish an update on primary and incidental patient numbers. However, it won’t cover January 3.
Experts and Tory MPs called for the Government’s transparency to show the difference between primary Covid and secondary patients.
MailOnline previously heard from Dr Raghib Al Ali, an epidemiologist in Cambridge who said that the data would prove to be “not only useful but also essential” in understanding the true strain on the NHS.
Omicron has been accepted as unlikely to cause severe illnesses like those seen in the past. However, NHS leaders now believe that isolation and absences from staff are central problems they have to face.
However, a separate analysis by the NHS shows that more than half the patients contributing to the rise in Covid infections at hospitals in the first year of 2012 were hospitalized for reasons other than Covid.
Between December 21 and December 28, there were around 2,100 additional beds occupied by the virus in England — of which 1,150 were for primary illness (55 per cent).
This suggests that only 45 percent were not severely ill with Covid but they were still included in the official statistics.
The South East of England had 66% of non-Covid residents, while London’s was at 48% and East of England 51%.
Critics claim that these figures don’t account for discharges which can skew data. However, they contribute to the increasing trend.
Meanwhile, 24 Trusts have declared “critical incidents” in England due to staff shortages.
This means that roughly one fifth of England’s 137 trusts may be unable to provide critical care over the next few weeks.
The full list of affected trusts has yet to be released by officials, but the ones that raised alarm are the NHS sites in Blackpool and Plymouth.
The health authorities have been forced to cancel certain non-urgent procedures and asked those suffering from heart attacks to go to their nearest hospital.
Trusts declaring critical incidents — the highest level of alert — can ask staff on leave or on rest days to return to wards, and enables them to receive help from nearby hospitals.
Ministers downplayed warnings, insisting that hospitals are not likely to experience winter crises despite growing hope of an Omicron epidemic.
Grant Shapps, the Transport Secretary, accepted that there are ‘very real pressures’ but added: ‘It’s not entirely unusual for hospitals to go critical over the winter.’
Latest figures show that hospitals in England have actually had fewer beds occupied this winter than they did pre-Covid.
In the week ending December 26, an average of 89.097 beds, including 77.901, were available each day. The NHS looked after more patients during the week ending December 26, 2019.
NHS England statistics show that the average number of beds opened was 95,917 and that 86.078 were occupied per week. That gives an occupancy rate at 89.7%.
It is more than the 87.3 percent in the latest data. This suggests that there are still admissions.
Because of Norovirus-related outbreaks, nearly half of the beds have been made unavailable. It is now possible to transfer patients and allow for additional admissions.
Also, the NHS has more capacity for intensive care than ever before and can open more beds in case of emergency.
Half of the Covid patients currently in England’s critical care is now occupied. There were an average of 4,079 adult critical care beds open each day in the week to December 26, but only 75 per cent of them – 3,058 – were occupied.
This compares to the occupancy rate at 79.6 percent in week ending December 26, 2019. There were an average 3,647 adult-critical care beds available and 2,903 people occupied.
On January 24 last year there were 3,736 Covid patients in intensive care in England – the highest of the pandemic – with 6,270 critical beds open for any illness.