The number of covid cases rose again in the UK. Hospitalisations declined for the eighth consecutive day and the death toll dropped by 25%.
Another 43,676 cases have been recorded in the last 24 hours, a rise of 14.1 per cent on the 38,263 confirmed positive cases last Wednesday.
722 Britons were infected by the virus and sought NHS healthcare on Saturday. The latest figures available show a 7.3% decrease week-on-week.
Daily Covid deaths fell by 25%, with 149 people becoming ill after testing positive.
The trend is two to three week behind in both cases because of a delay between the time a person gets Covid and becomes severely unwell.
The UK has seen a trend upward in cases over the last fortnight, after half-term breaks at the beginning of the month ended.
The majority of infections are found in younger people, but booster jabs can reduce the number among those over 60.
It comes as British experts have sounded the alarm over a new Covid variant that is the most mutated version of the virus yet. This strain has 32 mutations that many suggest it to be highly transmissible, and potentially vaccine-resistant. It was not found in the UK.
Researchers at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, (LSHTM), today predicted that England will have the lowest number of hospitalisations in Europe if all of its citizens caught Covid now.
It comes as data from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) found England would only suffer 35,000 Covid hospitalisations if the entire population got infected right now compared to a quarter of a million in Germany.
The analysis suggests the NHS is unlikely to be overwhelmed by the virus even in the event of a major surge.
Researchers looked at vaccination rates and cumulative infection numbers in 18 countries in Europe to estimate levels of immunity and work out what would happen if everyone was suddenly exposed to the virus.
England with its 34.720 admissions, 6,200 deaths and 6.720 births would be the worst affected. Even though the model only looked at England, there is nothing to suggest Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be hit harder.
For comparison, there have been over 500,000 Covid hospitalizations in England in the past 18 months. Only 140,000 people died from the virus.
The study estimated around 280,000 people in Germany would be hospitalised with the virus — the most of any country in Europe — while Romania would suffer around 150,000.
The researchers include Dr Rosanna Barnard, Dr Nick Davies and Dr Adam Kucharski — three members of SAGE whose modelling has been instrumental in Government policy during the pandemic.
They said higher levels of prior infection and the success of the booster rollout in England meant the country is likely to be better protected than its neighbours this winter.
Britain, which had dropped all restrictions in England this July, was called the “sickman of Europe” and its cases spiralled to as high as 50,000 each day. However, experts believe the early opening allowed for more cases to be frontloaded. That means that there is now greater immunity in Britain than Europe.
Scientists also believe Britain’s longer dosage gap between vaccines — 12 weeks compared to three weeks on the continent — has afforded Brits longer lasting immunity from jabs.
According to the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, only 62 people per 100,000 in England would need to be admitted if Covid were introduced to them without any restrictions. Because of its booster rollout success and the high level of previous infection, it is expected to have the lowest number in Europe.
In Europe, there are more Covid intensive-care inpatients than ever before. This is a trend that has been evident since the beginning of this year. The UK is seeing a steady increase in the number of intensive-care patients.
The highest number of Covid cases per person in Europe is found in Austria, followed closely by Belgium, Ireland, and the Netherlands.
The UK’s booster drive is a step ahead of other countries on the continent. A booster has been given to more than 20% of Brits, almost twice the amount in Austria.
Europe is currently in the midst of a rapidly worsening winter Covid crisis, with cases and hospital admissions creeping up towards levels seen last winter in countries across the continent.
The continent has been subject to severe restrictions and lockdown. Some countries including Italy have made vaccines compulsory, sparking protests throughout the continent.
The World Health Organization yesterday predicted another 700,000 Europeans could die from Covid in the coming months — despite the availability of vaccines.
Not only are there slower vaccine rollouts but also mObility data has shown that Europeans have been socializing more in recent weeks than Britons. Their behaviours, however, have not changed despite being locked down.
The LSHTM paper — which has not yet been peer-reviewed and was published on the preprint website MedRxiv — estimated the number of hospitalisations for countries in the ‘short term’ — meaning it did not include the effects of waning immunity or emergence of new variants — but did not specify the exact timescale for the hospitalisations.
Also, it did not say how serious hospitalizations were or whether intensive care was required.
Researchers modeled the possible deaths and remaining admissions using vaccination and associated infection fatality data as well as natural immunity statistics.
These models were adjusted for age, and based on whether or not additional Covid restrictions in certain countries have been placed and if people had returned to their pre-pandemic socialising levels.
There would be over 900,000 hospitalsisations in each country and more than 300,000.
Germany had the highest expected number of hospitalisations and Denmark was at the bottom with 6,300.
England was the least populous of all the countries that were studied while Romania was the most.
Only 62 of 100,000 patients were hospitalized in England, as compared with more than 300 in Germany.
Romania also had the highest expected death rate of 360 per 100,000, while England had just 11 per 100,000 — the lowest of any country studied — amounting to 6,157 overall.
In total, Germany was expected to have the highest death toll with 115,000, while Slovenia has the lowest with 1,200.
The authors said: ‘Aside from Romania, where vaccine coverage is low, countries with a combination of lower vaccine coverage among older age groups, relatively low prior exposure and older populations — Austria, Finland, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Slovenia — have the highest maximum remaining burdens.
They have the potential for much greater numbers of deaths and hospitalisations among the older than countries with younger populations or high levels of coverage.
Just 67million doses AZ were administered to the continent in comparison with 440m Pfizer’s. Recent studies have shown that older adults are more likely to be protected by the UK jab than those who received the AZ vaccine.
“Our findings suggest that there is a significant remaining burden from Covid deaths and hospitalisations in the 19 European countries we have studied. This could amount to more than 900,000.000 deaths and over 300,000.
“It differs greatly between countries. Countries that have seen less transmission thus far have lower vaccination coverage, and/or older populations with much greater potential burdens.
The modelling is based on data from October and the study’s lead author Dr Lloyd Chapman said if the study was done at the end of November, it is likely the picture would look even better in England.
It comes after the WHO yesterday suggested warned Europe’s total death toll is set to spiral from 1.5million to 2.2million by March amid a ferocious fourth wave.
The figure covers 53 European countries, which includes the UK, Kazakhstan, and Russia.
This prediction, if true, means Europe will face a slightly worse winter than the previous year, even though vaccines are now widely available.
WHO stated that the WHO’s gloomy predictions were due to the Indian “Delta” variant. It was caused by vaccine scepticism, Covid restrictions being relaxed and Covid restrictions being loosen.
Pascal Soriot (CEO at AstraZeneca) yesterday suggested that spiralling continent admissions could have been caused by delayed vaccine distributions in countries.
Mr Soriot said the decision by most major EU nations to restrict the jab earlier in the year could explain why Britain’s neighbours are now starting to record higher intensive care rates despite having similar case numbers to the UK.
Only 67 million doses of AZ were distributed on the continent, compared with 440m Pfizer’s. However, recent research suggests that the Oxford-made jab offers longer protection from severe diseases in the elderly.
French President Emmanuel Macron was charged with politicizing the British-made vaccination rollout in January. He called it ‘quasi effective’ for those over 65, and said that the UK had rushed to approve it. This is what many described as Brexit bitterness.
Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel 66 added to the initial doubts regarding the vaccine. In February, she stated that she would not receive the jab because the country’s vaccination regulator had famously said at the time that no one over 65 should get the jab. But Merkel did eventually get the AstraZeneca in April.
The EU’s skepticism over the jab was centered around the fact that only two individuals older than 65 were able to catch Covid during AZ’s global trials. This is out of 660 people in this age group.
Even though the vaccine was ultimately approved by France and Germany for seniors, it caused a lot of controversy and many Europeans questioned whether they should be given the jab. Some countries, including Norway and Denmark, have stopped using AZ.