Official data today indicated that the Covid crisis in Britain appears to be decreasing, as fears increase about the impending winter wave.
Department of Health bosses posted 44,985 new coronavirus infections, up 3.6 per cent on last week’s total of 43,423.
The single-digit increase in cases comes seven days after infections spiked by at least 10%. This suggests that the recent uptick may be slowing.
And the number of people dying with the virus fell to 135 today. It was down 8.8 per cent on last Saturday’s toll of 148.
The figures come after a Government scientific adviser said he is ‘very fearful’ there will be another ‘lockdown Christmas’.
Professor Peter Openshaw, a member in the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Groups CO-CIN and SAGE subgroup CO-CIN said that current death rates and case numbers are unacceptable.
SAGE scientists, however, said it was “highly unlikely” that the NHS would become infected this winter.
The Group for England predicted in their modeling that the combination of vaccine-acquired immunity as well as natural protection would be enough for hospitals to maintain rates below the levels of the second wave.
Yesterday, Boris Johnson refused to comply with calls for tighter restrictions from health leaders despite rising levels of infection.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid said new cases could reach 100,000 a day but Downing Street insisted there was still spare capacity in the NHS and that Plan B would only be activated if it came under ‘significant pressure’.
It was revealed that Brits may need three Covid vaccines to travel next summer, but that under-50s will not be able to get a booster until after Christmas.
SAGE models predicted that the combination vaccination-acquired immunity, natural protection would suffice to keep hospital rates below the levels of the second wave. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios of the group, they estimated that daily Covid hospital visits would not rise above 1,500. They would be below 1,000 in winter, according to more optimistic models. These charts are based upon Warwick University modelling and show how quickly people can return to pre-pandemic social connections. It was based on booster doses of’sustained immune system’.
Other SAGE modelling also took into consideration’repeated’ waning from booster dosing and projected that hospitalizations could exceed levels seen in January’s second wave.
It’s as follows:
- Rishi Sunak stated that booster Covid vaccines would prevent another lockdown. This is contrary to the advice of health experts, who warned that the NHS could become overwhelmed this winter.
- Top scientists urged the Government to rollout Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine as soon as possible because it may prove a game-changer in No10’s efforts to persuade hesitant adults to get jabbed;
- Investigations showed one of Britain’s richest men claimed up to £6million in furlough money despite saying he had ‘borrowed nothing from the Government during Covid pandemic’.
According to the Government, an additional 135 people had died in the 28 days following testing positive for Covid. The total UK population is now at 139,361.
Separate statistics from the Office for National Statistics have shown that 164,000 deaths have been registered in the UK since Covid was mentioned in the death certificate.
Professor Openshaw, Imperial College London, said to BBC Breakfast, “I’m very scared that we will have another lockdown Christmas. If we don’t take action soon, I’m very worried.”
“We know that public health measures require immediate action. There is no reason to delay.
“If you delay, you should take more severe actions later. You must respond immediately if you want to manage things.
“We all want a wonderful Christmas as a family where we can all get together again.
“If this is what we want, then we need to put these measures into place now to bring down transmission rates so we can actually get together to see one another over Christmas.”
Professor Openshaw said that it was unacceptable for this to continue at the moment. He added: ‘I think many hospitals in many parts the country are barely managing actually.
“Talking to people at the front lines, I believe it’s just too costly to continue at this pace.
“It’s unacceptable to witness the number of deaths we have at the moment.
“At one stage last Wednesday there were 180 dead in one day. That’s a lot of people dying. We seem to be conditioned to believe that there will be many, many deaths from Covid. This is not true.
“We must slow down transmission and really redouble effort to get everyone vaccinated, and all the boosters out. Then we can open up again.”
Professor Openshaw was questioned about his thoughts on people who are concerned about how they can stop the spread if the Government does not reintroduce the measures.
He said to the program: “I think you should take matters into your own hands. Do not wait for the Government to make policy.
Only 4.5million (green) of the 9.3million eligible English citizens have received the crucial third dose. Ministers have urged people to come forward to get their inoculations.
“I’m very, very reluctant to go into crowded areas because I know that approximately one in 60 people living in a crowded area will have the virus. If you can, cycle to work.
‘I believe you should do everything in your power to reduce transmission. Do not wait for government policy to change.
“The sooner we act, the quicker we can lower this transmission rate, and the greater the chance of having Christmas with our families.”
The World Health Organisation warned that the vaccine alone would not be sufficient to eradicate the pandemic.
Spokesperson Margaret Harris stated to Times Radio, “The problem is focusing only on one thing, the vaccine won’t get us out of this.”
“We really must take other measures.
“We must be serious about not crowding. We must still consider wearing the masks when we are indoors.
According to scientific advisers, the Government must ensure that Plan B restrictions to combat coronavirus can be ‘rapidly deployed’ if necessary.
Experts from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, (Sage), said in minutes of a meeting published last Friday, that a second large spike in infections, such as January’s, was ‘increasingly unlike’. As experts predicted, there would be a series of smaller, flatter peaks as this virus continues to spread.
Sage, however, warned that the Government’s Plan B measures would have the greatest impact if they were introduced in unison and sooner than expected.
Scientists favor a light-touch approach that is implemented earlier to make a difference. Sage stated that the’reintroduction’ of working-from home guidance would have the greatest individual impact in transmission out of the measures’ in Plan B.
The Times was told by Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of India, that the country cannot return to’significant economic restraints’ and that the vaccine rollout had made this unnecessary. Boris Johnson said Friday that he did not intend to lock down the country again.
Kate Nicholls, UK Hospitality CEO, warned that businesses would not survive another winter under lockdown restrictions.
When she was asked by Times Radio whether she believed businesses would survive if the Government went ahead with Plan B, her blunt answer was: “No, I don’t.” We have already lost 12,000 companies.
She stated that when restrictions are in place, ‘consumers stay at home, they don’t go out and socialise’.