Ben Wallace had prepared. A Defence Secretary ally told me, “He knew this was coming months ago.” “He saw what was coming.”
While the Government has faced mounting criticism over a failure to align its bold rhetoric with effective policy – from the targeting of oligarchs to the provision of safe routes for refugees – Wallace has emerged as the Cabinet’s Action Man.
The shipments of arms of anti-tank missile system systems to Ukraine started in January with thousands of weapons being sent.
British forces were deployed to assist the Ukrainians with their training, which has had a devastating impact on Putin’s armour.
And the difficult – and dangerous – flow of lethal munitions and other aid has been maintained, despite threats from the dictator he would interdict them.
‘Ben was already on first-name terms with defence ministers across Europe and across the Atlantic – it meant he was able to help mobilise support for Ukraine from the beginning,’ a Minister explains.
“The fact that he is familiar with them all made negotiations quicker and allowed for easier discussions between the Allies partners.”
Russia’s incursion in Ukraine has been going on for just over one week. British politics was turned upside down in just seven days. Boris seemed defeated just a few weeks before. Partygate was what had driven him to the brink. He seemed to be energized by the increasing storm clouds of war, which then broke. Pictured: Mr Johnson leaves No10 with Ambassador of Ukraine to the UK Vadym Prystaiko
Russia’s attack on Ukraine only a week ago. Although the implications of Russia’s invasion on Ukraine are not yet known, they have significant consequences for global and European security. One thing is certain. Within seven days, British politics was turned upside down.
First of all, there have been dramatic changes in the balance of power at top Government. Boris created a “War Cabinet” to deal with the crisis. Wallace became the de facto Deputy Premier Minister. According to one minister, “The Army boys” are now in charge.
It’s not to everybody’s liking. The Government is aware that Liz Truss and the Defense Secretary are experiencing increasing tensions.
On Monday, Wallace moved to shut down Truss’s statement of support for British citizens travelling to Ukraine to fight – words that Russian officials had seized upon as justification for raising of the alert status of their nuclear forces.
Allies of Truss point out the increasingly bombastic rhetoric by Defence Secretary that they claim is making diplomacy more difficult. According to me, the “full Tonto” talk about Putin was very disingenuous.
First of all, the balance in power at the top has changed dramatically. Boris assembled a ‘War Cabinet’ to handle the crisis. Wallace is now the de facto deputy prime minister. According to one minister, “The Army boys are now in charge,”
It’s not everyone’s cup of tea. The Government is aware that tensions are growing between Liz Truss and the Defense Secretary (pictured leaving Downing Street together).
Foreign Office sources report that frustration is growing over the Foreign Secretary’s absence as Boris exercises greater control over diplomatic coordination.
“Officials worry that the Prime Minister seeks more guidance from Lord Lebedev.” [Evgeny Lebedev, the Russian-British Evening Standard owner]”I asked my friend how we can best deal with Putin, than he is currently taking from Liz.”
According to a No10 insider, Boris is very close to Lebedev. They use WhatsApp to communicate frequently.
A senior Downing Street source replied that Boris and Lebedev hadn’t spoken in several weeks. He speaks with Liz multiple times per day, in contrast.
Another senior Minister who has had their world flipped upside down – again – is Chancellor Rishi Sunak.
The OBR will release its Spring Forecast for March 23rd. This forecast is intended to give an outline of economic and financial outlooks. It’s redundant.
One senior Tory backbencher said to me that this would change everything. It will require a complete overhaul of our defense posture and budget. Since 1800, our Army is at its smallest. Estonia plans to have an even larger strike force than we. It’s impossible to sustain this.
An ally said to me that Boris has his mojo back. “Even his worst backbench critics are admitting that he sets the right tone. His appearance is that of a wartime prime minister. He works hard with global leaders.
This is unsustainable politically and militarily. Labour is determined to draw a line in the Nato-bashing of Corbyn years.
“The Government is currently considering additional cuts to 10,000 military personnel by 2025,” a Shadow Minister explained. “And we are going to fight it.”
“They have been saying that we require more advanced weapons. But our argument will be that all we need are the ability to place boots on the ground. Russians have shown that drones and robots can’t be used to take over territory.
Sunak now faces another financial nightmare.
Covid had a disastrous two-year old economic strategy. Vladimir Putin is now the 47th Guards Tank Division’s successor.
And the Chancellor understands that, even though the Treasury has maxed its credit cards, any penny spent to protect Europe’s weakest eastern flank will also be lost through tax cuts or levelling-up.
I was able to speak with a number of MPs last week who believe that Sunak is now out of reach. One MP said that he is out of options. He has no other options. His budget has been destroyed by Putin and Covid. This is the beginning of a cost-of-living crisis. He’s done.’
However, the consequences of Putin’s barbarism on British politics are much greater. To end our dependence upon Russian gas and oil, the Tory MPs demand that the Government abandon its cherished Net Zero commitment.
One senior Tory said to me that it was difficult to imagine how Net Zero could survive contact with the current situation. “We have to begin to develop our gas resources like it is a national war effort.
Other commentators point out the ambition of the Prime Minister to steer a post Brexit pivot away from Europe and begin to build a new international alliance centred on Asia and Africa.
Another senior Minister who has had their world flipped upside down – again – is Chancellor Rishi Sunak. He will present OBR’s Spring Forecast on March 23, which is supposed to provide an overview of the economic outlook and public finances. However, it is redundant.
One great man declared that “this great shift towards the Pacific was dead.” “You cannot focus your attention on something 6,000 miles distant when you have enormous strategic issues facing 22 miles along the Channel. What’s Boris going to do – leave it to Macron to deal with Putin?’
It is unlikely. Not least, because the Premier Minister seems up to confront the Kremlin despite the scale of the crisis.
Boris appeared defeated just a few short weeks ago. Partygate was what had driven him to the brink. However, as war clouds gathered and then broke apart, he seemed to be energized.
An ally said to me that Boris has his mojo back. “Even his worst backbench critics are admitting that he sets the right tone. His appearance is that of a wartime prime minister. He works hard with global leaders.
“And he has reminded everyone that, despite all of the hardships and setbacks, he is resilient in times of crisis. He always makes the right decisions. There have been few politicians that have faced as many crises in their lives as he.
Some of his enemies are not so kind. “We cannot move while there is a war raging,” one of my opponents said to me. But, we aren’t going anywhere. Christian Wakeford left us within two of receiving the 54 letters. The Met may fine him, but he still faces a challenge.
His friends acknowledge that the prime minister faces formidable challenges.
“The most important thing for Boris is to learn his lessons,” a senior lieutenant stated. “He cannot look at the ball twice.” This is not easy. People expect him to remain focused on Ukraine. However, there are many other areas they want him to remain focused on. Levelling-up. Living expenses He mustn’t slacken off.’
Many of Boris’ MPs are concerned about this potential loss of focus. Although most agree that Boris has been having a successful war, many question if Boris can maintain the discipline necessary to manage a long-term crisis.
They are also nervous that they see a discrepancy between what he promises at the Despatch Box, and the actual delivery of his Ministers.
They also recognize that Putin’s insane aggression has made everything different. Tony Blair, in the wake of September 11, 2001, stated, “The kaleidoscope is shaken. The pieces are in flux.” The same thing is happening again.
Today’s Prime Minister is attempting to lead the country in a volatile new world.