Two months ago, Florida experienced the worst COVID-19 increase in the United States.

The Sunshine State had the highest average daily number of cases per day and the highest rate of hospitalizations in the country.

These grim statistics aside, Governor Ron DeSantis did nothing to issue new lockdowns or closures. He claimed that the spike in the virus was seasonal and urged residents not to stay at home.

With Halloween and Thanksgiving just around the corner the Covid crisis in Florida looks very different.

Inexplicably deaths and cases have fallen despite DeSantis having not implemented any new mitigation measures.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), data shows that Florida has one the highest rates of death and cases in the country.

This is similar to what has been observed nationwide, as Covid-related fatalities and infections in the U.S. plummet to their lowest levels since April 2021.

The state is also doing well despite California’s strict approach to mask mandates, closing bars and limiting gatherings, and indoor dining at restaurants.

Experts agree that Covid waves are usually two-month-long cycles. The cycle starts with infections rising for two more months before falling. DeSantis, instead of trying to stop the cycle from happening, just let it happen. 

The declining rates could change as Floridians go inside for winter, potentially leading to cases rising again. But, for now, it seems that Florida’s downward trend will continue.

FLORIDA CASES: During the peak of the recent COVID-19 surge in Florida, the state was recording 101 cases per 100,000, which has since declined to nine new cases per 100,000

FLORIDA CASES – Florida was registering 101 cases per 100,000 at the peak of the recent COVID-19 increase. This number has declined to nine cases per 100,000 since then.

FLORIDA DEATHS: Florida was recording 1.77 new deaths per 100,000 people during the peak of the surge, which has since fallen to fewer than 0.01 deaths per 100,000

FLORIDA DEATHS FLORIDA: Florida had 1.77 new deaths for every 100,000 people during the peak. However, this number has fallen to 0.01 deaths for every 100,000 since then.

In mid-August, perhaps the COVID-19 crises looked no worse than in Florida.

The state had 26,000 Covid cases, which is about 101 cases per 100 people, in one day. This was a new record.   

According to CDC data this is 44% higher than the January 2021 peak at 18,000 cases per-day.

This time, there were 17,200 COVID-19 hospitalizations. This is three times more than the 5,700 that occurred a month earlier. 

Additionally, Florida reported a record-high 227 deaths per day in mid-August or 1.77 per 100,000.

Governor DeSantis however, defended his actions against critics and said that Fox News had interviewed him on August 26 to say that the state was having a ‘great result’ treating COVID-19 patients with monoclonal antibodies.

He also attacked President Joe Biden for not ending the pandemic.   

“You know, he claimed he was going end Covid. DeSantis said that he has not done so. 

“At least at the end of it all, he’s trying to find a distraction from the failures that his presidency has caused.”

Doctors and experts in public health said at the time that DeSantis’s laissez faire approach was a gamble. However, it seems to have paid off.

According to CDC data, Florida has 64 cases per 100,000 people per week and nine cases per 100,000 per day as of Wednesday.

This means that The Sunshine State has a higher case rate than California, Mississippi, Hawaii, and Alabama.

California currently has 28 cases per 100,000 residents per week or three cases for every 100,000 people per day. 

The declines are despite Governor Ron DeSantis insisting the state would not shut down and refusing to implement mask or vaccine mandates and instead focusing efforts on early treatment. Pictured: DeSantis speaks at a press conference at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida, August 2021

Despite Governor Ron DeSantis stating that the state would not close down and refusing mandates for vaccine or mask implementations, the declines are still evident. Pictured: DeSantis speaks in Orlando, Florida at a press conference on August 20, 2021

Experts have suggested the declines seem to follow a familiar two-month cycle since the pandemic began with cases and deaths increasing for about two months before dropping, which as been seen in other states that experienced surges over the summer such as Alabama, Louisiana and Texas

Experts suggest that the declines follow a two-month cycle. Since the pandemic started, deaths and cases have increased for approximately two months before falling. This is similar to what has been observed in other states, such as Texas, Louisiana, and Alabama, which experienced spikes in the summer.

The same curve can also be seen for Covid deaths.

Florida has the second-highest rate of deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in a single week, making it the most dangerous state in the country.

It is behind only California and New Mexico, which are recording 0.1 death per 100,000 people in a week. 

These metrics are available despite DeSantis refusing schools and business from implementing mandates for vaccine and mask implementation.

This is similar to the surge in U.S. Delta variant-fueled sales.

The average number of cases per 100,000 in America was 49.9 on September 1. This has fallen to 21.2 cases per 100,000 as of Wednesday. 


Despite taking very different approaches to the pandemic, Florida and California are recording nearly the same amount of average cases and deaths per day

California and Florida have almost the same number of deaths and average cases per day despite taking different approaches to the pandemic.

Florida’s improvements are largely due to the governor. Not necessarily. 

These declines seem like they follow a familiar two month cycle since the pandemic in early 2020. According to David Leonhardt of The New York Times these deaths and cases increased for about two months before decreasing.

Early explanations, such as the virus being seasonal or social distancing increasing or decreasing, have not held up.

There are other explanations, however. The virus is slowly (slowly) running out people to infect, as many people have contracted COVID-19 in the past two months.

Covid has had a consistent, but not always mysterious, pattern since the outbreak of the pandemic. Leonhardt explained that the number of cases in each country has increased for approximately two months before falling. 

“The Delta variant, despite it’s intense contagiousness has followed this trend.”   

This means that a variant may only take eight weeks to spread through a community before it starts to recede. 

The two-month cycle theory has also been seen in the U.S. during every surge including the summer 2020 wave and the winter 2020-21 wave

The two-month cycle theory has been observed in the U.S. during every surge from the summer 2020 wave to the winter 2020-21 waves.

During the summer 2020 spike in the U.S., cases began increasing in early July and then dropped in September.

Furthermore, Covid infections increased dramatically in the winter 2020-21 surge and then dropped again in the latter part of January 2021.

It seems that what has happened nationally is what has happened in Florida. 

Following the two-month-schedule in July, cases started to rise in Sunshine State. They then began to decline in September. 

It’s not just the one state that saw cases rise during the recent fourth wave. Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina all experienced declines since September.