Every prime minister starts out exactly the same. These are the steps of No. 10 the morning following their election telling us how their new power will be used to make America a better place. They will correct the mistakes of their predecessors. Do things differently.
They will be cognizant of an old saying that all political careers are doomed to failure.
That’s not as bleak as it sounds. Sometimes, it’s noble to fail.
Hitler said Dunkirk was a major defeat for the Allies, but history shows that the evacuation was a triumph of human spirit.
It was so. The heroes of the little boats that saved a doomed army are still remembered 80 years later.
Even though prime ministers may be powerful, in the end what really matters is that they don’t have any influence on history.
If Boris Johnson is — as some are speculating — now facing the first stirrings towards his own departure, it will not be because he misjudged the public mood on a question of supreme national importance
Boris Johnson wouldn’t be human if it weren’t for this weekend. While he might not consider his days at Downing Street over yet, what Boris Johnson must be afraid of as a Classics student is that his term will not be seen as a Greek tragedy. It will instead be seen as a Greek farce.
And he will get little comfort if he looks even to those predecessors who’ve made the greatest recent impact.
Winston Churchill, our prime minister, who helped us win in 1945 was dismissed by this grateful nation. The Labour government was chosen by them, promising to create a new country for our returning heroes.
But Churchill’s place in history was at least secure.
It was so for Margaret Thatcher.
She was dumped by her own party — the one she had led to resounding victories at one election after another — but not before she had transformed the economy by seeing off what she viewed as the over-mighty trade unions.
Tony Blair was elected to the highest number of elections in Labour history.
Pictured is Owen Paterson (MP for North Shropshire, 1997-2007). He resigned earlier in the year.
His party was saved from the Hard-Left by him. However, he was also rescued by the Hard-Left. He had led the country into a war of lies and it ended in his defeat.
And, of course, there was David Cameron — forced to resign when the country rejected his high hopes of a future inside the European Union.
But if Boris Johnson is — as some are speculating — now facing the first stirrings towards his own departure, it will not be because he misjudged the public mood on a question of supreme national importance.
It was also because the public doubted his vision of the United Kingdom’s future.
No. Because of Christmas parties. Not even a ‘party’ if we believe the official line. A work ‘gathering’.
It’s not as if Johnson has been secretly filmed in his boxer shorts tooting on a toy trumpet as he led his drunken staff in a conga last December.
People would have certainly turfed him out for that — but we’d have enjoyed the outrage, too.
It’s one to share with the children for years to come. It would have been a great idea for historians!
However, he is not. Instead, he’s been accused of taking people for fools.
And the best he could muster when a surprisingly effective Keir Starmer fired round after devastating round at him in the House of Commons on Wednesday was: he’s playing politics. It’s obvious when politicians use this whiskery-old tactic that they are trying to make things worse.
We are not trying to play politics by pointing out that the law appears to apply to everyone.
The Prime Minister should not be reminded that many in the country couldn’t hold the hands of their dying relatives because they were not allowed into a nursing home. That same law would have prevented civil servants collaborating in masse to hold parties. Sorry. Gatherings.
‘Wallpaper-gate’ is rearing its ugly head again, with more questions being raised about Johnson’s honesty after the Electoral Commission fined the Conservative Party £17,800 for breaking the law over its recording and reporting of who paid for redecorations at the PM’s personal flat
But Johnson’s greatest miscalculation is to have ignored the basic lesson of political scandals through the ages. Cover-ups are always worse than the original crime.
Try telling the truth when all else fails.
Imagine if Johnson had said something like this when the story about a Downing Street party was first broken by the Mirror: ‘I wasn’t there and I didn’t hear anything untoward. It was likely that I was in the flat above No. I was probably in the flat over No. 11 at that time. But I’m as shocked as you are.
‘I’ve ordered an immediate inquiry and I’ll be asking a few questions myself. If it’s true, I promise you heads will roll.’
We would have tutted a little and reminded Johnson that the Prime Minister is the boss and if he really didn’t know, then he damned well should have.
We might even have suggested it wouldn’t have happened under, say, Theresa May. He said nothing about it. Instead we got a string of denials and endless guff about ‘gatherings’ being different from ‘parties’.
He tried, too, to keep Matt Hancock in his job after the then health secretary conducted an affair in his office — again, breaking Covid restrictions
Only the visual of the disastrous mock press conference was enough to end any doubts about credibility.
And the only head that has rolled so far is that of the woman who was Johnson’s press secretary at the time, Allegra Stratton. As Sarah Vine wrote in the Mail this week: that’s not a good look.
One question dominates British politics, as I write: Could Alexander Boris de Pfeffelson be the ultimate head to come out of all this?
A ridiculous question? Perhaps.
He’s survived more scandals, storms, and still manages to keep his grin on the face every time. We are only half way through our parliamentary term. It is possible that he will need to take a while to get over this crisis.
Let’s assume Omicron turns out to be a sheep in wolf’s clothing. That ‘Plan B’ does the trick and there’s no need for another lockdown Christmas.
Let’s imagine the NHS gets on top of its appalling waiting lists. That the Brexit deal gives the economy just the boost it needs — and President Macron suddenly gives Boris a big Gallic hug and promises to do whatever it takes to stop migrants crossing to Britain.
Indeed, it’s certainly possible that in a couple of years, the PM will have persuaded the nation to give him the keys to No. 10, all over again.
But it’s also at least possible that he’ll no longer be the leader of the Conservative Party by then.
His problem is that many of his own MPs can’t stomach him.
I was often stunned by the contempt leading figures showed for him when we were ‘off mic’ outside the Today studio.
But then again, politics being the brutal game it is, that doesn’t necessarily matter.
Most MPs have one single requirement of their leader — that he helps them keep their seat. And he’s been good at that so far.
But the latest opinion polls show the ‘Boris effect’ is fading.
This is the latest in a series of disasters. After Dominic Cummings’s flagrant violation of Covid rules, he offered his support to Dominic Cummings. The relationship ended when they broke up.
He tried, too, to keep Matt Hancock in his job after the then health secretary conducted an affair in his office — again, breaking Covid restrictions.
And now ‘Wallpaper-gate’ is rearing its ugly head again, with more questions being raised about Johnson’s honesty after the Electoral Commission fined the Conservative Party £17,800 for breaking the law over its recording and reporting of who paid for redecorations at the PM’s personal flat.
Take a look at the trivial, ridiculous list. If Johnson fears the verdict of history he’s right to do so.