The news that Northern Ireland voters would choose to stay in the UK – by a majority of 54 per cent to 46 per cent – excluding those undecided – is a welcome early Christmas gift for Unionists. A similar survey was conducted two years ago and I discovered a thin margin that Ulster could join the Republic of a united Ireland.
Like in Scotland where independence was defeated, national identities are now being pushed aside as a result of a new post-pandemic emphasis on practicalities like living costs and public services.
There is some doubt about Ireland’s willingness to confront the North given their current economies, and how Northern Ireland has benefited from UK public expenditure.
Beyond the historical fate and old loyalties, practical questions are raised. How would the health system look like? What if you were still eligible for your pension at old age?
The Northern Ireland Protocol was negotiated to avoid a hard border with Ireland, by effectively keeping Northern Ireland in the EU’s single market for goods. Pictured: After a Loyalist demonstration, violence broke out with young people attacking officers and petrol bombing buses.
Then there’s the tenor of any border campaign, never mind the aftermath, whatever the result. All these things add up to a majority for the status quo… at least for now.
However, in Northern Ireland politics are played long-term. With that in mind, few Unionists can rest easy. Most voters expect a referendum or ‘border poll’ within the next decade, and while the majority believe the province would vote to remain tomorrow, only one in three think this would be the outcome in ten years’ time.
Their pessimism can be attributed to five factors. First, demographics.
As one Catholic voter told us cheerfully and candidly in nationalist Strabane: ‘We breed better than they do. They have big TVs; we have big families.’ More than seven in ten voters aged under 25 said they would vote for a united Ireland.
The second is Brexit. Many believe leaving the EU was a bad decision for Northern Ireland. Nearly nine in ten also blame Brexit for their shop shortages. Over one fifth of respondents say they are questioning their support for Northern Ireland being a part of the UK after Brexit.
Third is the belief that the rest of the UK is indifferent to Northern Ireland’s place in the Union. Voters on all sides feel that their British compatriots regard them as an expensive nuisance, and that any talk of ‘levelling up’ applies to the North of England, not to them.
After being shot at officers using a water cannon, fireworks explode at them after they are fired at them with fireworks during clashes between nationalist youths
Nearly four in ten Unionists – not to mention two-thirds of nationalists – think that even if it can’t say so, the Westminster Government would rather Ulster joined its southern neighbour. Boris Johnson’s agreement to an Irish Sea border under the Northern Ireland Protocol only adds weight to this perennial suspicion.
Fourth is the understanding that as the Troubles become a more distant memory – and, for younger voters, not even that – traditional loyalties will count for less. It is a way to pray. ‘We’re damaged goods from a time that was just awful,’ as one old Loyalist put it.
The generation that wished for this was the one where their children could grow up without being ruled by Catholic and Protestant greens, oranges, and Catholics. But the more real this vision becomes, the less instinctive loyalty the Union might command – especially as the Republic looks to many like a more modern and liberal place than the North.
Unionist despair is fueled by the feeling they are simply being outclassed in politics. No one would like to see the Good Friday Agreement or the Peace Process go backwards.
Many believe the nationists can achieve their goal through patience, strategy discipline, reinvention and presentational genius.
Not in the next decade, maybe. But within their lifetime or their children’s lifetime. Many people on both sides anticipate Sinn Fein becoming the largest party in Stormont next year after the Assembly election.
Unionist movements are in chaos. Everyone was dismayed by the decision to remove Arlene Foster from the Unionist party. According to polls, support for the party is now half of what it was three-years ago.
The exasperation of past DUP voters at Carrickfergus was evident when you listen to them. For years, they said, they had put up with what they saw as the party’s outdated stance on social issues as the price of defending the Union, yet the border between Ulster and Great Britain was drawn on its watch.
Many are turning to the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice and its leader Jim Allister – who may be just as socially conservative ‘but at least he doesn’t spout about it’. Many see the only reason to stick with DUP as being to stop Sinn Fein’s First Minister in next year.
However, if the largest pro-Union party is unable to attract many Loyalist voters then how can it be so with younger generations who aren’t as attached to the Union as their grandparents and parents?
Repelled by the DUP’s stance on issues like gay marriage, they will increasingly look to parties and leaders who share their values, but not necessarily a commitment to Northern Ireland’s place in the UK.
Most Northern Ireland voters are keen to remain for the moment. The emerging generation may be persuaded that the UK offers them a better future than the alternative, but today’s fractious and backward-looking Unionist parties are not exactly well placed to make the case.
Lord Ashcroft, an author, pollster, and international businessman is a philanthropist. For details about his work, visit lordashcroft.com or lordashcroftpolls.com. Follow him @LordAshcroft on Twitter and Facebook