One of the world’s leading experts in vaccinations backed Boris Johnson’s decision not to increase England’s Covid limits. This was because he believed that mass hospitalisations and deaths from this deadly disease are part of ‘history.
Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University and a member of the Vaccines Taskforce, said the public had been ‘pretty responsible’ in its response to the spread of the Omicron variant.
It came as new figures showed the number of people in hospital with Covid in England is less than half the same time last year – despite cases being three times higher.
‘The health minister has taken advice and looked at the data. I think his judgment where we should go in the next few days is probably fine,’ Sir John told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.
‘There are a lot of people who are aware that we are in the face of this large wave of disease. The behaviour of people in the UK, in England in particular, has been pretty responsible in terms of trying not to go out and spending a lot of time exposing yourself to the virus.’
He added: ‘The horrific scenes that we saw a year ago – intensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurely – that is now history in my view and I think we should be reassured that that’s likely to continue.’
Professor Sir John Bell was regius professor at Oxford University of medicine and a member on the Vaccines Taskforce.
The most up-to-date figures reveal there were 842 Covid patients in intensive care on ventilators – the lowest level in two months
According to UK Government statistics, 1.5 million Covid tests are performed each day. The number of swabs has increased dramatically since Omicron was first created.
Another sign that Omicron variants seem to cause less severe diseases is the fact that yesterday there were 8474 Covid patients in hospital, compared to 19,277 the previous year.
The increase is nearly 1000 per day and the largest since March 5. However, health officials say that there are no reports of large patient numbers requiring ventilators as during the peak of last winter.
The most up-to-date figures reveal there were 842 Covid patients in intensive care on ventilators – the lowest level in two months.
George Eustice, Environment Secretary, said that the Government will keep the Covid hospital admissions level under “very close review” after ministers determined there would not be any new restrictions in England prior to the New Year.
While Mr Eustice recognized that Omicron-related infections were increasing, there is evidence to suggest it has not led to the same amount of hospital admissions.
He stated that there was early evidence that South Africa has seen a decrease in the amount of hospitalizations. Also, the time they spend in hospital (if any) is lower than the previous variations.
“At the moment, we don’t believe the evidence supports any further interventions beyond those we have already done.
“But, obviously, we need to monitor it closely. If we see an increase in hospitalisations, then we should take action.”
Covid case numbers – which were updated for the first time since Christmas Eve – reveal 98,515 people in England tested positive yesterday.
It is almost four times more than 25,619 people tested positive last year, and a significant decrease from the 113.628 Christmas Day cases in England.
This is lower than the Boxing Day 103 558 reported cases. These promising numbers highlight Omicron’s protection against serious illness and the growing evidence of Omicron being a milder variant.
A further 143 people in England died after testing positive for Covid yesterday – down 42 per cent on the 246 people who were reported to have died the same day last year.
The recording lag that saw three fatalities on Boxing Day and no on Christmas Day could also have influenced yesterday’s figures.
Meanwhile data for London – which No10 has been watching closely – reveals there were 364 Covid hospital admissions across the capital on Christmas Day.
Although this is an improvement on the 278 hospitals that were reported on Christmas Eve it still falls below the 400 admissions daily thought to be Government’s threshold for applying new restrictions.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), reported last night that there were 45,307 more confirmed Omicron cases across the UK.
This brings the total confirmed cases of the variant in the UK to 159,932, but does not include any new information for Scotland and Northern Ireland which have not reported data since December 23.
There have been 39 deaths of Omicron-related people in England, and 407 hospital admissions of Omicron patients.
According to NHS England data on December 19, 351 Great Ormond Street Hospital Trust workers were either ill due to Covid, as compared with 70 weeks prior. According to statistics, this figure represents 6.13 percent or more of the total workforce at the trust. MailOnline’s graph shows 10 London trusts with the largest percentage of staff absent because of Covid, December 19.
The Covid data from NHS England showed that 338 Barts Health trust hospital workers were either sick or isolated due to Covid as of December 19. This is compared with 83 two weeks prior. With 515 Covid workers home, Guy’s Hospital Trust (179 on December 5), St Thomas’ Trust was the most affected. This is an 188% increase from the previous week. King’s College Hospital Trust saw 505 Covid-related absences December 19. This was followed by Imperial College Healthcare trust (3365), Great Ormond Street Hospitaltrust (351), and St George’s University Hospital trust (206)
NHS England data shows Covid has increased staff absences from London by around 1,100% to 3,874 between the weeks of December 19 and 20. This means that the virus is now responsible for around 43% of NHS London daily absences, compared with just 18% before Omicron spiralled outof control.
According to official data, the number of daily Covid admissions increased by 62% week-on-week from December 22 through 22, in London. They jumped 47% in the North West while 39% in the East. In the Midlands, hospitalisations have risen by 36 percent, while in North East and Yorkshire, they increased 31% and 31% respectively, as well as the South East (11%) and South East (10%). Only the South West sees a decline in Covid admissions. The number of patients seeking NHS care has fallen by four percent.
According to reports, ministers monitor hospitalisations in capital. If daily figures exceed 400 they will be subject to a lockdown for two weeks.
Although Covid admissions were declining in hospitals, health officials warned it was still too soon to ignore concerns.
Chris Hopson is the chief executive of NHS Providers. He stated that trust leaders closely monitor their hospital admissions data.
‘Talking to chief executives today, I get the impression that admissions have been increasing slowly but surely. The most interesting thing about chief executives is the way they talk about how many patients are admitted to hospital with no symptoms and later tested positive for Covid.
“Trusts do not report large numbers of Covid-type respiratory issues in patients who require critical care or increased oxygen use. This is contrary to what we observed at January’s Delta variant peak.
“We need to be very careful when interpreting Covid’s admission data.
He stated that trusts should be able to ‘prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.
Now could have been a catastrophe if clampdown had not taken place.
Professor Philip Thomas comments
At least, for the moment, common sense prevails. Boris Johnson (and the Cabinet) have stood firm despite a torrent of frightening statistics and dire predictions.
Before the New Year, there will be no new Covid restrictions.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid has sensibly urged people not to throw caution to the wind when enjoying parties on December 31 – but in England at least, parties are permitted.
It is crucial. This is vital for the health of society and economy.
A bar at Concert Square in Liverpool’s centre on Boxing Day had empty tables. Downing Street is understood to be leaning towards new guidance urging people in England to be careful and limit contacts – rather than imposing new legally-binding restrictions
Chris Whitty is the Chief Medical Officer in England. Patrick Vallance was Chief Scientific Adviser earlier this year.
The reasoning behind it would have also been flawed because of a basic misinterpretation of statistics. If we look at the most likely outcomes for this wave, it might seem bleak.
Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that 10,000 hospital admissions are being made every day. The reality is far from that – in fact, yesterday’s NHS figures show there were fewer than 10,000 Covid patients in hospital in the whole of England. It was actually 8,474.
Never base your policy decisions solely on the worst-case scenario.
The statistical model predicts that the worst forecasts are not always accurate. The spread of possibilities means that we are 97 percent confident that any outcome will prove to be more positive than our worst predictions. This isn’t wishful thinking. It’s mathematics.
Gloom-mongers include a few who are members of the Government’s Sage Committee. They believe that it is always better to prepare for the worst.
Today, the leaders of Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales imposed tighter coronavirus regulations to stop the Omicron variant spreading. Pictured: Boxing Day shoppers take to Oxford Street
However, this strategy is only effective if precautions are not painful. Covid restrictions have led to the economic and social collapse of society.
The gross domestic product of the United States has not returned to its pre-Covid days, two years ago. In the absence of a strong economic rebound more people are going to die from financial complications of lockdown restrictions then ever before.
Judgment value, the risk assessment tool I developed at University of Bristol is a proof that the economy must improve continually if we want to live longer and healthier lives for our children.
The cost of locking down earlier is rising. There is a growing backlog in NHS treatment for life-threatening illnesses, and there are increased levels of domestic abuse as well as disruptions in education. We can’t afford to make these issues worse.
All too often, we focus only on the bleakest ‘worst-case scenarios’. We forget about more positive news. The UK Health Security Agency reported that Omicron was causing England to have between 50% and 70% fewer hospitalizations than Delta.
The weekend’s data released yesterday showed further positive news with hospitalisations remaining flat. London saw 364 admissions for Christmas Day, compared to 390 the previous day.
Some might have been worried to learn that there were more than 1.5 million people in England with active infections in December.
This was to be expected. That’s thanks to Bristol’s Predictor Corrector Coronavirus (PCCF) power. It’s very close to the prediction I made in the Daily Mail.
According to the PCCF the total number of active infection may exceed 3 million during the peak of the wave. We may also see the number of people admitted to hospitals in England reach 3,000 per day.
But that’s well below the 4,130 we saw at the peak in January – and daily deaths should stay well below what we saw in January too.
Philip Thomas is the University of Bristol’s Visiting Academic Professor