Massive explosion destroys the only bridge between Russia and Crimea in suspected attack by Ukraine

The President Volodymyr Zelesnky, back in August declared that ‘this war began with Crimea’ and would end with Crimea’. According to military experts this is precisely what his generals want to accomplish. 

Ben Hodges, a former commander American forces in Europe has detailed what he thinks is the Ukrainian path to victory. This route takes you through Mariupol and Kherson to end ‘when a last Russian soldier crosses over the border. [Kerch]Bridge from Crimea. 

General Hodges now works at the Center for European Policy Analysis. He believes Ukraine’s primary goal will be to capture Kherson, in the south. This is where an assault of major proportions has taken place since August. There are also plans for a second attack that would hook down through Donbas towards Mariupol.

He told a CEPA conference that when Mariupol fell, these troops would also converge in Crimea – hammering it with HIMARS rockets while forcing the Russians beyond the border.

As a King’s College visiting fellow in war studies, Dr Mike Martin also suggested the possibility of an attack on Ukraine, using its reserve to divide the Russian frontline into two, making it more difficult for Putin and his reinforcements to travel around.

War is not always easy. Putin will absolutely do whatever it takes to stop Kyiv. He’ll be piling soldiers on the frontlines and even using a nuclear weapon.

MailOnline examines the possibilities for Ukraine to win as it becomes easier to see their path.

Former commander of US forces Europe General Ben Hodges has described what he thinks Ukraine will do to win against Russia. He said that “Crimea” is the prize and the war would end when the last Russian soldier steps along the road.” [Kerch bridge, connecting the peninsula with mainland Russia]’

Kherson

Ukraine launched its long-awaited counter-attack against the Kherson region in August. However, there has been little progress. Reports have begun to emerge of an improvement this week.

According to Kyiv’s goal, the Russians want Kherson back. It’s the only region capital that Putin had seized during the conflict and it occupies a strategically important location – the Dnipro River at its source, the Dniprovska Gully and the Black Sea.

It would be a loss for Russia to its sole foothold on the Dnipro west bank, make it impossible to attack Odessa and prove the lies of Putin’s fraudulent referendums and claims of annexation.

Ukraine is fighting hard for Kherson over the last two-months. Reports of Russian troops withdrawing 10 miles from the area this week suggest that they may be able to make a breakthrough.

The Ukrainian Special Forces troops can be seen moving across Ukraine’s south amid news of an advance in Russian lines, which may have forced Putin’s men back over 10 miles

Ukrainian tanks opened fire on Russian positions at Kherson. It is part of a large offensive in the area that seeks to capture the city from Russia.

General Hodges said that it could take up to a week to break the Kherson pocket. Ukraine does not give a time frame. If it is possible to win, this victory would mark a turning point.

Russia had stationed the majority of its forces in Ukraine and nearly all its top fighting units in the city. Their loss would prove to be devastating for the Kremlin. 

And, should Kherson be slain, Kyiv left no doubt what was to come. 

As the attack on Kherson was nearing, several explosions rocked Crimea, destroying airfields and ammo dumps. Kyiv took a long time to take responsibility. It may have tried to conceal the weapon that it used in these attacks, or maybe fearing an escalation from Putin.

After all, the despot annexed Crimea to Russia in 2014.

Zelensky, however, declared that Crimea was Ukrainian in an August 10 speech. He promised: “Crimea will not be abandoned. The Russian war…began in Crimea, and must be ended with Crimea.

Kharkiv/Donbas

This frontline was radically different until a few weeks back: Ukraine held out against Russian long range attacks in Kharkiv’s north, while Russia advanced steadily in the southern region around Bakhmut.

A surprise Ukrainian counter-attack launched after Russia relocated its top units to the south in order to protect Kherson changed all that.

In just days, a breakthrough in Russian lines led to a swift advance and then total destruction of Putin’s army in Kharkiv. This resulted in an estimated 3000 square miles of territory being returned under Ukrainian control.

The retreat was so quick that Ukrainians found food on their stoves after they reached abandoned Russian camps. Numerous vehicles were taken and hundreds of bullets of ammunition were confiscated.

The stunning Ukrainian counter-attack to the east of Kharkiv has been slowed, but not stopped. Lyman is now under Kyiv’s command and troops are pushing toward the Kreminna and Svatove cities.

Ukrainian soldiers were captured ambushing Russian armoured cars using anti-tank missiles in Donetsk. One of the vehicles was destroyed.

The offensive continues. Russia is now in a reorganized state and Ukraine has been able to slow down its advance, although it hasn’t stopped. 

At the weekend, Lyman was taken prisoner. Now, troops are moving from that area towards Kreminna in neighboring Luhansk and also from Borova into Svatove.

These two would have to be thrown out, which could open up the possibility of an attack against the Lysychansk-Severodonetsk cities – Russia has spent blood, sweat, ammunition and weeks trying to capture these cities, and this is crucial for its claim to having “liberated” the Luhansk area. 

Ukraine has the option to either attack the two regional capitals, Donetsk/Luhansk, from there or bypass them to push south toward the sea and Mariupol.

It is certain that this conclusion has been reached by General Hodges. 

“My impression is that operations are currently underway – the north arm coming down from Kharkiv to Donetsk. [and’ that’s heading straight towards Mariupol,’ he told the CEPA conference. 

Aside from Kherson, Mariupol has been the other prize captured by Putin in a little over seven months of war, having worn down the heroic Ukrainian defenders to the point of surrender – which came back in May. 

Should Ukraine re-capture Mariupol, it would be a hammer blow. Russia painted the Azov Battalion – who defended the city – as war criminals and neo-Nazis. Putin’s claim to be ‘de-Nazifying’ Ukraine is, at least in part, based on destroying this unit and taking the city.

Should Mariupol fall, General Hodges believes the Ukrainian forces will head in one direction: ‘Towards Crimea.’ 

Reserves?

‘When and where to commit your reserve is literally THE question for the theatre commander,’ Dr Mike Martin of King’s College wrote on Twitter around a month ago, after the extent of Ukraine’s counter-attack around Kharkiv became clear. 

Much remains unknown about Ukraine’s reserves. Kyiv has kept the size of its armed forces and its casualties a closely-guarded secret, meaning it is impossible to guess at how many men it might have ready and able to deploy and what kind of equipment they could be armed with.

However, Kyiv has carried out a general mobilisation of the population – unlike Russia, which has belatedly gone for ‘partial’ mobilisation – meaning every man aged up to 65 is eligible to be called up, which would amount to millions of troops if they could all be armed and trained.

So, the question is: Where, how and when does Ukraine use these forces? 

Ukraine has an unknown number of troops in reserve, but has fully mobilised its population – giving it a pool of millions to draw on, and they could be used for an attack 

  Kyiv has carried out a general mobilisation of the population – unlike Russia, which has belatedly gone for ‘partial’ mobilisation

Dr Martin, posting on Twitter today, believes he has found the answer. ‘Ukraine [would use]their strategic reserves to cut the Russian Armed Forces (Ukraine) into pieces they cannot reinforce.

In addition to the tweet, he also uploaded a sketched map that showed the probable direction of the advance. It was drawn from Dnipro-Zaporizhzhia and Mariupol.

This front, aside from the skirmishes surrounding the Zaporizhzhia nuke power plant and Ukrainian paramilitary activity has been fairly calm since Russia invaded it early in wartime. Dr Martin says it may soon be at the center of the action.

It makes sense, assuming Ukraine is capable of it. The forces in Kharkiv would be able to concentrate on Donetsk and Luhansk attacks, as well as liberating Donbass under Russian control. This would stop Putin from deploying any troops to Kherson in defense of the region, except if they were prepared to go through Ukrainian lines.

Crimea

Crimea is the winner. It will be that way. Victory is when the last Russian soldiers walks across that long span,’ General Hodges says. This refers to the Kerch Strait bridge Putin constructed connecting Crimea and Russia.

Mark Hertling (another former US General) agreed with the assertion that Ukraine wants to be on the peninsula. However, he warned, it will be tough to get there.

Contrary to the rest Ukraine, which tends towards flattiness and openness, the Crimean peninsula can be separated from its mainland via what General Hertling refers to as “marshland”, a chain of islands with two roads through which Ukrainian forces are able attack them.

Even though the Russian forces may be in a bad state by the time of any attack, this still leaves them very vulnerable. This limits Kyiv’s options on how to proceed with the operation.

A series of large explosions rocked the Russian-held Crimea Military Airbase this afternoon. Additionally, a mushroom cloud sent nearby bathers running from the area.

An enormous mushroom cloud rises from an explosion at the Russian-held airbase in Novofedorivka.

Following explosions at a Russian military aircraft base close to Novofedorivka (occupied Crimea), August 9th, smoke rises

General Hertling explained that Russia’s invasion of Crimea was carried out mainly by naval infantry and specialist operators. The Ukrainian Navy doesn’t yet have ships and therefore has no maritime operations. This will require some planning. [artillery]You can go inside. 

“But artillery alone is not enough to take the ground. You need to send people to get on the ground. It will be hard.

Putin is sure to fight to save Crimea, according General Hertling – as long as he’s still at the helm.

“If Putin remains in power, he will see [an attack on Crimea]He said that attacks on other regions of Ukraine are more serious than those in these oblasts. We haven’t seen Russia use its strategic bomber fleet yet, nor have we seen them deploy their naval forces in the way they might.

“What do you think? Given the dysfunction in their ground forces, should we worry about their air and navy forces as much as we are about their air force? Yes. They still have them.

General Hodges agreed. However, he believes that once Ukrainian artillery and the particularly devastating HIMARS systems are within striking distance of Russian bases in Crimea, it will cease to be viable. Putin will then have an option. 

General Hodges said that he believed the Ukrainians would use the big bridge as an invitation to depart.