The third wave of Covids in England may have reached its peak, but more official data suggests that the epidemic is slowing down.
The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) weekly surveillance report estimated 1.1million people were infected with the virus at any time in the week to October 30 — the equivalent of one in 50. This was about the same as the seven-day period before, which marked an end to almost three months of increasing cases that began in August.
Experts believe that the recent wave of Covid caused by schoolchildren returning to school has ‘likely’ reached a natural peak due to a combination vaccine immunity and previous infections.
The ONS data shows that the outbreak is still as severe as it was during January’s peak. The weekly total is the third-highest ever recorded. However, the deaths are only a fraction of those seen during the worst days of the crisis.
According to the mass-testing survey, covid cases were declining among under-16s. They also fell slightly among 35-49-year-olds. However, they remained stable in all other age groups, including booster-eligible older-60s.
Today, government advisers said that the R rate had fallen for the first-time since September’s return of millions of students to school. The UK Health Security Agency estimates that the rate is between 0.9-1.1, but cautions that this is not the current situation.
Separate data from the UK’s largest symptom tracking study yesterday showed a decline in cases for the first week in a row, which is another sign that cases may have peaked. Professor Tim Spector is the epidemiologist behind this survey. He said that the country is likely to have reached the ‘last great peak’ of Covid for the year but encouraged mask-wearing as well as social distancing in order to be safe.
After a brief blip this week, Britain’s daily Covid case numbers fell for the 11th consecutive day yesterday. According to the Department of Health, there were 37.269 cases of infection, which is down 6.5% from last Thursday.
According to the Office for National Statistics, approximately 1.1 million people in England were infected with Covid last week. This is the same as the previous seven-day spell, but the levelling off suggests the outbreak has peaked because fewer people infected with the virus are passing it on to others — either due to self-isolation or immunity from jabs or previous infection
According to the ONS, cases are declining among under-16s. There was a slight decline among those aged 35-49, but they remained stable in all other age groups.
In England’s regions, a decline in infections was observed in the East of England (North West, South East), East Midlands, London and South East. This could be linked to the drop in infections in younger age groups over the half-term.
The experts behind the ZOE Covid Study — which is based on reports from around 750,000 weekly contributors and more than 40,000 swabs — calculated there were 88,592 daily symptomatic Covid cases across the UK, based on data from 42,359 positive PCR and lateral flow tests taken between October 16 and 30. The study revealed that 26.928 cases (or 36% of all cases) are among double-jabbed Brits. This figure is up from 26,928 in the previous week.
The half-term week saw a drop in the incidence of covid infections in England in all but 10%, according to data from the UK Health and Security Agency’s weekly Flu and Covid Surveillance Report.
According to the latest ONS estimates, around one in fifty people in England’s private households had Covid in the week ending October 30, which was unchanged from the previous week.
The agency calculated the Covid infection rates for different age groups in England and found that rates had increased in the last week for those in school from 12 to 24 years old and 50 to 69 years old.
While rates have dropped for students in 7-11 school years, the percentage of test-positives in this age group at 7.5% is still high.
Dr Raghib Ali, an epidemiologist from Cambridge University, stated on Twitter: “ONS results broadly as anticipated and consistent with REACT findings. The likely prevalence peaked in England during the last week in October.
‘Also confirms cases in schoolchildren peaking before half-term — i.e. the fall was not just due to less testing — but increasing immunity.’
The ZOE study found that there were 88.592 daily symptomatic Covids in the UK each day up to October 30, according to the ZOE study.
This was based upon data from 42,359 positive and lateral flow tests and hundreds of thousands of app users. Nearly a third (26,928) of cases were among double-jabbed Brits.
Across the UK, one in 53 people were estimated to have symptomatic Covid, while the figure is higher in England (one in 52) and Wales (one in 42), while it was less in Scotland (one in 81).
Researchers stated that there weren’t enough respondents in Northern Ireland for a reliable estimate.
Within the UK, infection rates were highest in West Midlands (one in 45), South West (one in 45) and North East (one in 46).
A drop in infection rates among children was the main driver of the downward tread, the researchers said.
One in 34 people aged 10-19 were infected last week. Children aged 9 and under are at one in 52.
Infections are levelling off in all other groups apart from those aged 55 to 75, which the experts said is a ’cause for concern’ — but rates are still below the national average in the group.
Professor Spector said, “It’s great that cases are finally starting to come down. And hopefully we’re over this last great peak of Covid by 2021.
“This is due in large measure to declining rates in children who have been on half-term holidays and high rates previous infection, but it’s a hopeful trend that will continue.”
He stated that while it is “still worrying” that cases in the older and more vulnerable age group are rising, he said that the booster programme will likely reduce these cases.
Professor Spector stated, “As the temperatures drop and winter approaches, we still see far too many Covid in our community leading to high long Covid rates and hospitalisations compared to other Western European countries.”
“With high rates of other viral respiratory diseases, including flu, there is no room to be complacent.”
He stated that while restrictions, masks, and vaccine uptake in children are all factors, it’s clear there’s no one solution to permanently lower rates.
“We have seen that a combination population safety precautions, vaccines, works best. So the third booster vaccine, combined with mask wearing and distancing from high-risk areas, is our way out.
Professor Jonathan Ball, University of Nottingham virologist, said that the half-term break likely reduced transmission among children. Rates may rise once students return to school.
He stated, “But one consequence of all the virus transmission in younger persons is that they will become immunity and transmission will slow down as immunity builds.”
‘Whilst I don’t expect massive increases in case numbers, I think case numbers over the next few months will still be lumpy as the virus continues to circulate in unvaccinated people and in those whose immunity has started to wane.
‘That’s why it’s so important for people to get vaccinated and, when invited, get their booster jab.’