NHS waiting lists could double to 12 million by 2025 despite billions more in taxpayers’ cash being pumped into our hospital wards, a damning report has concluded.
The National Audit Office (NAO) said millions of patients had missed out on vital care during the pandemic – and could now return to the health service to increase the backlog.
At 5.83 million, the number of people waiting to receive NHS healthcare is already a record. The NAO warns that this number could rise to 12,000,000 in just three years.
Its report also warned the health service was falling dramatically short on all key targets – including cancer care – with the ‘catastrophic’ consequences costing lives.
A damning report suggested Boris Johnson’s controversial new ‘health and social care levy’ would be inadequate to prevent hospital waiting lists continuing to soar
And it suggested Boris Johnson’s controversial new ‘health and social care levy’ would be inadequate to prevent hospital waiting lists continuing to soar. It is possible that this report adds to the fears that the NHS will absorb almost all of the money earned by the new levie in the coming years. This leaves little for the crumbling social services sector.
Today’s study by the NAO – an independent watchdog that scrutinises public spending for Parliament – provides the most in-depth assessment to date of the horrifying legacy of the pandemic on non-Covid care.
Even under its best case scenario, the NAO said the number of people in England waiting for routine care – currently at a record 5.8 million – will increase to 7 million in 2025.
But if the NHS were to perform activity at pre-pandemic levels, this would actually reach 12 million by 2025 – meaning one fifth of the population was caught in the backlog.
Experts warned if the Omicron variant leads to more disruption and lockdowns this winter there will be an ‘even bigger mountain to climb’. The report said up to 9.1 million patients missed out on referrals for elective care, saying ‘millions have avoided seeking or been unable to obtain healthcare during the pandemic’.
NHS waiting lists could double to 12 million by 2025 despite billions more in taxpayers’ cash being pumped into our hospital wards, the report has concluded
Many were put off seeking help due to the Government’s ‘stay at home message’, while others had vital operations and appointments cancelled as hospitals dealt with an influx of Covid-19 patients.
The NAO said it had been ‘impossible’ for the NHS to maintain cancer care throughout the crisis and treatment including chemotherapy ‘dropped significantly’. There were between 240,000 and 740,000 ‘missing’ urgent GP referrals for suspected cancer from March 2020 to September 2021. In this time period, between 35,000-60,000 more people began treatment for cancer than was expected.
The authors of the report said it is uncertain how many ‘missing’ cases will return to the NHS over the coming months.
If 50 percent of those affected seek treatment and the activity keeps growing in accordance with pre-pandemic plans then there would be 12 million people on the waiting list by March 2025.
If the NHS meets the Government’s target of increasing activity by 10 per cent more than planned, the waiting list would stand at 7 million in 2025.
Many were put off seeking help due to the Government’s ‘stay at home message’, while others had vital operations and appointments cancelled as hospitals dealt with an influx of Covid-19 patients
The Government’s new 1.25 per cent hike in national insurance, coming into force in April, will raise an extra £36billion over three years for the NHS and social care.
Of this, £8billion will go specifically to addressing the backlog.
But, the NAO indicated that they were unsure if this funding would suffice to decrease waiting times or address long-term issues in the health system.
It noted ‘waiting time performance had been gradually deteriorating’ since 2013 and ‘the pandemic heaped yet more pressure on a care system that was already creaking under the strain’.
NHS England data showed that only 83% of patients saw within the standard 18-week period in February 2020. This had dropped to 66% by the end of last month.
The report said it will be impossible to clear the waiting list unless workforce shortages – of around 100,000 doctors, nurses and other NHS staff – are addressed. It also warned ‘the ongoing pandemic may continue to affect bed and staff availability in unexpected ways and at short notice’.
NAO reported that social care support is needed to clear the backlog so older patients are not trapped in hospitals.
Tim Mitchell, vice president of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, said the projection that waiting lists could hit 12 million was ‘very worrying’ but ‘will not come as a surprise’.
He called for the creation of ‘surgical hubs’ to tackle the backlog, adding: ‘Frustrated patients who have been left waiting in pain for hip, knee, heart and other vital operations, want to know there is a plan to reduce waiting times.’
A spokesman for NHS England said: ‘NHS staff are now pulling out all the stops to recover elective activity levels, so anyone who is concerned about their health should come forward so the NHS can help you.’