Britain’s Covid incidences fell by one tenth in the week to last week according to the largest country-wide symptom tracking study. It has also sparked new hope that no restrictions on Covid will be required before Christmas.
King’s College London scientists estimated 65,059 people were falling ill with the virus on any day in the week to November 13, down from 72,546 previously.
This marked the third week in a row that the number of cases has trended downwards, the lowest weekly infection rate since September before the return-to-school surge.
According to the app, cases fell between over-75s but remained steady for more than 18s. After the break, children’s infections rose again.
Prof. Tim Spector is the leading scientist in the study. He said he’s ‘cautiously hopeful’ that Christmas this year will continue as business as usual.
This was a softening in his tone from last month when he joined a chorus of experts calling on ministers to switch to Plan B — bringing back hated face masks, social distancing and work from home guidance.
Worries about another Christmas lockdown were raised this week after Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, admitted at Downing Street’s press conference that it was possible. However, the Prime Minister said that there were still no indications England should increase its Covid restrictions.
The number of daily Covid-related infections in Britain dropped by 75% yesterday, with fewer deaths and more hospitalisations.
Scientists at King’s College London estimated that 65,059 people had contracted the virus during the week ending November 13. This is a decrease from the 72,546 who were previously infected. It was 10% lower than the previous week.
The symptom-study — also run by health data science company ZOE — relies on daily reports from more than 750,000 Britons on whether they are feeling unwell and if they test positive for Covid.
The self-reporting system does not require participants to provide evidence about their symptoms. Over the period of two weeks to November 13, the latest estimate included 40,000 viral tests.
Today, Professor Spector sounded optimistic by stating that he believed Christmas would proceed without further restrictions.
He said: ‘In terms of what it means for Christmas, I’m cautiously optimistic for the remainder of the year.
‘It’s becoming clear that children and the school holidays play a key role in the waves of infection.
‘I think it’s safe to say that we can expect to see another rise in the new year after the holidays.’
He still encouraged Britons to be fully immunized against the disease and get booster shots.
He also urged people to wear face masks even in cramped areas, such as the public transportation.
It was an improvement on his tone just three weeks earlier, when he advised ministers to consider Plan B.
He said at the time: ‘The ZOE data shows the UK could hit 100,000 new cases sooner than expected and with no sign of a Plan B or Plan C.
“The UK government is delaying any decision, while hospitals are full. It’s now that it’s time for us to act to fix the situation. In previous waves, public action was successful in reducing rates prior to lockdowns.
Johnson stated earlier in the week that some Covid restrictions could still be reimposed.
He told a Downing Street press conference: ‘Clearly we cannot rule anything out and the most important thing people can do to prevent further NPIs from being taken is to — non-pharmaceutical interventions that is, further restrictions — get the boosters.’
However, he said there wasn’t any data that would suggest additional restrictions.
Scientists are concerned that new Covid measures could be necessary if an even more transmittable variant is discovered. This will allow it to be resistant to vaccines.
Last winter the Kent “Alpha” variant caused an increase in Covid cases. This led to Christmas plans being abandoned and another lockdown.
However, this occurred before the majority of Americans had been vaccinated.
To boost their immune system against the virus over 50s, the ministers distributed booster shots. Data showed the immunity waned six months following the second dose.
The drive has been expanded to include over-40s. They will be eligible for a third dose six months following their last shot.
The official data indicates that more than half the people over 50 have received their top-ups. However, this number rises to 77% among those aged over 80.
Professor Spector warned that officials must continue to monitor the virus for five more years. This raises the possibility of additional restrictions being placed for many years.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) — which took over from the now defunct Public Health England — will publish its Covid surveillance report later today.
Tomorrow, the Office for National Statistics (OTNS) will publish the surveillance report. This is closely monitored by ministers. It’s considered the standard for monitoring the pandemic.
Graph shows: The proportion of people who were infected with Covid between October 19 and November 5 (orange bar) compared to between September 9 and 27 (grey bar) in different age groups
Graph shows: The proportion of people who were infected with Covid between October 19 and November 5 (orange bar) compared to between September 9 and 27 (grey bar) in different regions in England
A mass surveillance found that booster doses of Covid vaccine reduce infection risk by up to 2/3 when compared with two jabs. Graph showing: Unvaccinated individuals (lightest blue), those who had had one dose (second lowest), people who had two doses of vaccine (second darkest), as well as the booster doses received by different groups (darkest blue).
This is in response to a massive surveillance study that found yesterday that Covid booster jabs lower the chance of getting infected by 2/3rds than those double-jabbed.
Data from the REACT study — which randomly tested more than 100,000 people up between October 19 and November 5 — found the third doses triggered a significant boost to immunity.
Only 30 (0.36%) of the over 8,300 individuals who received a booster were infected once immunity had kicked in after two weeks.
This is compared with nearly 700 (1.03%) of the 68,000 who received two doses during the same period.
Researchers at Imperial College London found that breakthrough infections were less likely after adjusting for factors such as age.
Paul Elliot (an epidemiologist) was the lead of the study. He said that the results were important because boosters prove to be ‘highly efficient’.
According to ONS, people who have had a Covid booster for at least one year are less likely than those without it.