Neil Ferguson claims that the Omicron variant could cause’substantially overwhelming’ of NHS services and up to 10,000 hospitalizations per day.
A Government scientist whose modeling scared Number 10, ordered the coronavirus lockdown in March. He said that the UK was suffering a “very explosive wave” of infections because of this new variant.
The scientist explained to The Guardian that it could result in a ‘quite explosive wave of hospitalisations.
He said that many projections currently in place indicate the Omicron Wave could severely overwhelm the NHS. It would cause an increase of peak admissions of 10,000 each day.
According to the scientist, the number could reach’sometime around January’ but it was difficult to predict the outcome of deaths.
Professor Ferguson’s forecast is 10 times more accurate than that of the SAGE panel, Government experts early in the new year.
This alarming figure is almost double that of the highest recorded number, which stood at 4,582 in January 2012.
Just three days earlier, Professor Ferguson had warned of a possible new national lockdown to combat Omicron.
On Wednesday, he told BBC Radio 4 Today that there was a reason to slow down the situation. This is to allow us to inject boosters to people to ensure they have maximum protection. However, it also allows us to better understand the threat.
Last week, the government’s Plan B measures were revealed. Health Secretary Sajid Javid said that Omicron cases could rise to 1 million by the month end.
On Friday, official data showed that Omicron could be being caught by as many as 4,000 Britons every day. The super-variant is expected to take over from Delta within days.
There have been 448 additional confirmed Omicron cases reported in the UK. This brings the total to 1,265.
According to Neil Ferguson, the Omicron variant could “substantially overwhelm” the NHS, causing up to 10,000 hospitalisations per day.
According to Confidential UK Health Security Agency data, Omicron could now be responsible for 8.5% of all infections
Omicron, a highly evolved variant of coronavirus, is responsible for 8.5% of all cases of coronavirus in England. 13.3% north of the border. Cases are increasing by two to three times per day.
With an average 48,000 Britons testing positive for Covid every day, it suggests more than 4,000 of them are the new Omicron variant — even though fewer than 1,000 cases have been confirmed.
Scotland today announced 5,018 positive Covid test results, which, along with London, has made it one of the UK’s Omicron hotspots. It is double what was reported a week earlier.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told Scots on Friday to brace for a ‘tsunami’ of infections, as she warned the new super-variant posed a ‘severe challenge’.
She said at a press conference held in Edinburgh that she faced a severe new challenge due to Omicron’s latest variant. To be blunt, because of the much greater and faster transmissibility of this new variant, we may be facing – indeed we may be starting to experience – a potential tsunami of infections.’
Public health chiefs expect Omicron to outstrip Delta nationally by Christmas and even sooner in the epicentre of London, with its rapid spread prompting No10 to resort to its Plan B strategy.
But Ms Sturgeon believes the variant to become dominant much more rapidly north of the border, adding: ‘I think we can now say with some confidence that we expect it to overtake Delta within days, not weeks – we estimate this could be as early as the very beginning of next week.’
Public Health Scotland projects that Omicron will dominate by Tuesday, and be responsible for almost all infections by December 20.
A senior member of the Government’s scientific advisory group SAGE warned on Thursday that Omicron was spreading even faster in the UK than it is in South Africa — where cases have rocketed 10-fold in a fortnight.
Plan B will limit spread of the mutant strain in the UK, according to the UK Government. The plan gives the NHS time to administer millions more booster injections.
Below is a map showing the 10 areas with the highest number of Omicron cases and suspicions in England. It was created by the UK Health Security Agency. West Northamptonshire has been identified as the hotspot of this strain. However, London is home to eight out of ten.
Boris Johnson’s Plan B first component came into effect in England Friday. This included mandatory face masks for indoor venues such as cinemas, churches, and theatres.
A new guidance system for work from home will go into effect Monday. MPs are scheduled to vote Tuesday on whether vaccine passports should be introduced in large venues and nightclubs.
However, officials have already begun to prepare a Plan C. This would place new restrictions on care homes in the lead up to Christmas as well as make it mandatory for them not wear masks in restaurants and pubs.
In the event that Omicron proves as hazardous as scientists think, controversial vaccine passports might be made available to additional locations.
Ministers were given confidential information that showed the seriousness of the situation in the lead-up to Christmas. Omicron is responsible for 30% of all new Covid cases in London.
After testing positive, Michael Gove (Communities Secretary) warned Friday that the crisis is ‘deeply concerning’. He named London and Scotland as his hotspots.
The most recent data provided to devolved countries was described by him as “very difficult new information”.
Stark projections suggest that super-mutant variants could be dominant within days. It raises concern about Boris Johnson being forced to press the panic button yet again.
London’s 32 boroughs have seen cases rise, and Omicron is being found in all corners of the city.
While deaths and hospitalisations in capital are flat, both these measures are behind several weeks because it is often difficult for people who have caught the virus to get seriously ill.
The capital’s public health chiefs say that they take the threat to their lives ‘extremely serious’ and it can overtake the city within two weeks.
Last week Professor Ferguson was interviewed by BBC to ask if the lockdown can be lifted.
He stated that it was clear that consensus indicated that it is highly probable that the NHS will become overwhelmed. However, it is up to the Government to determine what they should do. It is a challenging situation. At the moment, it might.
Professor Ferguson claimed that WFH light-weight measures ‘wouldn’t stop Omicron, but would slow it down and buy precious time. It could extend Omicron’s doubling time by five to six more days.
He said, “That may not seem like much, but it could be a lot to allow us to better characterize this virus and increase population immunity,”
Scientists at Imperial College London said Omicron is not alarming, but it was important.
It is still not clear what effect it will have on deaths, severe diseases and hospitalisations. On Tuesday, the first laboratory study on super-variant South Africa found that those who received two doses Pfizer’s vaccine produced forty times fewer antibodies than people exposed to Omicron.
Professor Ferguson stated that Omicron could reduce the effectiveness of vaccines against mild diseases by half. However, he maintained that they would still be effective in fighting severe illnesses.