Boris Johnson has to be dealing with a new baby at Downing Street.
He might have thought it was all a dream if he had a bottle of water with him when the North Shropshire By-election was announced just after 4am.
Even though there was a general feeling of disillusionment in Conservative circles over the past weeks, many still believed that the party’s vast majority would allow it to win or even come close.
The loss proved to be far more devastating than anyone could have imagined. A 34 percent swing by the Lib Dems saw Owen Paterson’s advantage of 23,000 at the 2019 election be erased and they won victory with nearly 6,000 votes.
The stunning turnaround came despite the Tories fielding a candidate, Neil Shastri-Hurst, with good credentials who was regarded as having performed respectably.
The Lib Dems drafted Helen Morgan (a fervent Remainer) to challenge a seat that voted in 2016 for Brexit. Stories about her past social media activity also hampered her campaign. She claimed she had compared Johnson to Hitler, and appeared to compare the Channel migration experience to Auschwitz-era Jewish prisoner.
Was there anything wrong with the Conservatives’ performance?
It seems that almost everything happened, including the Partygate and obvious sleaze, as well as the PM’s bizarre ramblings on Peppa Pig and tactical voting, and the rise of Omicron.
The Lib Dems argued that the voters had become so fed up with Johnson’s incompetences and behavior’, that they would be open to winning them over.
MailOnline was also informed by a Tory senior MP who had been involved in North Shropshire’s campaign that the result of the election was due to a “perfect storm” of national and local pressures.
The reason for the by-election wasn’t ideal. It was triggered after Owen Paterson resigned following Boris Johnson’s unsuccessful attempt to spare him from being punished for his lobbying.
Labour’recognised’ that the Lib Dems were not involved in this campaign and helped them to mount an effective tactical voting campaign.
According to the MP, ‘Daily negative national stories will have an impact’. The MP stated that there was general frustration at national levels, which was compounded by concern about Covid.
“The revival of Covid that occurred in the week prior to the by-election caused people to feel angry.
According to the senior Conservative, people shouldn’t draw dramatic conclusions about the outcome.
“I believe we must take it seriously, but I don’t think it is possible to extrapolate. Seven months ago, Hartlepool was won by the Conservatives in a byelection. “Who would put money on this?” The MP stated.
Senior Tory MPs argued that the Lib Dems are finally able to go back to their ‘chameleons’ strategies from before joining coalition – adjusting policy pitches based on local conditions and absorbing protest votes.
Helen Morgan, a fervent Remainer was elected by the Lib Dems to contest a seat in which many people voted for Brexit.
Lib Dems suggest that Johnson’s speech to CBI about toe curling, in which he lost his spot in his notes, before going on a lengthy digression about Peppapig World and comparing him to Moses, was a remarkable amount of cut-through.
Tories stated that the reason for the by-election wasn’t ideal. It was triggered after Owen Paterson resigned following Boris Johnson’s unsuccessful attempt to spare him from being punished for his lobbying.
As Mr Johnson was asked today whether the North Shropshire ‘earthquake” result was his fault, he admitted that he is responsible.
“We all know how the Lib Dems behave.” The MP stated that they had pushed up a Remainer from a Leave-voting constituency of 66%. They did not retract any statements she made about being pro-EU.
“If your seat has been voted Tory over the past 200 years, you won’t vote Labour for your protest. The 12 percentile points have been dropped, which isn’t exactly a vote for confidence.
“The Lib Dems have a strong by-election campaign machine.”
The MP voiced hope that a ‘people aren’t going to risk a protest at a general election’, but also cautioned: ‘The Lib Dems are pretty clever. To ensure they keep going, they will send a team to the scene. It will all depend on whether the Tories turn things around.
The Lib Dems suggest that Johnson’s toe-curling speech at the CBI in which he lost his spot in his notes and then went on with a long digression regarding Peppa Pig world and comparing him to Moses had an astonishing amount of cut through during the campaign.
The lack of support by the government after Brexit was reportedly causing frustration among farmers living in this rural area.
A sense exists that Mr Johnson’s historic, 80-strong majority may not have been enough to sustain the current ‘Get Brexit Done’ tide.
A Conservative MP in a crucial northern seat said that Johnson must recognize the fact that people have “moved forward” from Brexit.
MailOnline was told that it showed Brexit wasn’t a topic in political conversation. “If Boris, co. think that it is, it will save them.
They voted for someone who was an outspoken campaigner for another referendum.
Boris told everybody that Brexit was over. They’ve now moved on. Is he still there?
North Shropshire’s residents today weren’t ashamed of abandoning the Tories.
Richard Wilson (76), from Oswestry said that he voted Conservative previously, but not now. Liberal Democrats are for me.
“This time I deliberately voted against the government, especially after the Owen Paterson/sleaze scandal which occurred towards the end his tenure.
“Then, and after that they ask for your votes? It’s not at this moment.
“The entire government has been smeared in dishonesty. People have refused to accept this new version of the story.”
Duncan Borrowman, 61-year-old Landlord of The Bailey Head Pub, Oswestry stated there was a combination factor’ that influenced his support for the Lib Dems.
He said, “It’s not just Boris. It’s his entire cabinet and all the antics they’ve gotten up too.”
“The quiz and party are something that people will always remember. I was a pub owner, so my pub was shut down. After that, the outdoor food, curfews and drinking were all closed. Downing Street couldn’t stop laughing at us.
“The government, Boris, and the cabinet must be made to understand that it is wrong – perhaps this election victory for the Lib Dems will show them.
Prof John Curtice, election guru, highlighted the fact that things seem to be shifting dramatically for the Tories after the Partygate row.
“In a certain sense, this was something that nobody could have predicted two weeks ago.” Yes, the Conservatives were indeed in trouble two weeks back – their poll position was at neck-and–neck, and they had lost 13 points during the Old Bexley By-election’, he stated.
“But, this constituency was not first of all one that looked promising territory to the Liberal Democrats – it voted 60% for Leave… This is very, very different than Chesham or Amersham… Second, while the Conservative position had been weaker it hadn’t been that much.
RogerGale, a veteran backbencher and a critic of the PM for many years was clear about the root cause.
He stated that the electorate had wanted to convey to Downing Street their dissatisfaction with government management.
“I believe this must be seen as an assessment of the performance of the Prime Minister and I feel that the Prime minister is currently in the ‘last orders” time.
John Redwood, a former minister to the Thatcherites, suggested that the popularity slump was due to the high tax burden.
“Will the Chancellor now admit that his tax-intensive economic slowdown was wrong?” He tweeted. “Will Environment Secretary support British farming rather than trying to prevent us from growing our food? It’s time to pay attention to Conservatives.
Johnson was more concerned about the fact that journalists were asking too many questions regarding sleaze in Downing Street and possible lockdown violations.
Repeatedly pressed by the Sky News reporter on what was going wrong and how he was going to turn things around, Mr Johnson said: ‘I think that people are frustrated and I understand that… Basically what’s been going wrong… is that in the last few weeks some things have been going very well, but what the people have been hearing… is just a constant litany of stuff about politics and politicians and stuff that isn’t about them and isn’t about the things that we can do to make life better.
‘And so to that extent, of course, you’re right – and I think the job of the Government is to make people like you… interested in the booster rollout and in skills, and in housing, and in everything else that we’re doing.
“And unfortunately, and you’re completely right, we’ve not been able to focus on these issues.
When challenged again about what he was doing wrongly, Johnson said: “If I may speak respectfully, Omicron…is a very serious danger to us now.”
Pushed on how he will avoid repeats of damaging rows such as over Downing Street parties and the funding of refurbishing his grace-and-favour flat, a visible irritated Mr Johnson said: ‘Those questions are exactly the kind of questions about politics and politicians and all those kind of things, the running of government, that I’m going to have to fix of course.
“But people should really focus their attention on what is being done to fix the NHS and how much we have invested to make it through difficult times. Also, what are we doing to combat the pandemic?
Helen Morgan won the election as the party’s thirteenth MP, with almost 6,000 votes. It was a remarkable turnaround that will increase pressure on the Prime Minster and cause shockwaves in the Conservative Party.